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Thread: 2019 MLB Draft Thread

  1. #381
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    It’s less about saying “target HS pitchers in X round” and more about properly weighing in the attrition rate of pitching while ranking prospects.

    Anyone who has followed FGs prospect content can see how this trend is going and is valuing pitchers lower overall.

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    Just to add a little bit of data on the third round. This has been an unproductive round for us with the notable exception of Kimbrel (college pitcher).

    We've taken HS pitchers in the third round with half of our picks since 2013 without much to show for: Tarnok (2017), Guardado (2015), Salazar (2013). I would favor a move away from them toward HS hitters and college pitchers.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    It’s less about saying “target HS pitchers in X round” and more about properly weighing in the attrition rate of pitching while ranking prospects.

    Anyone who has followed FGs prospect content can see how this trend is going and is valuing pitchers lower overall.
    I think the two are related. One way of implementing a proper weighting that accounts for the bust rate of pitchers is to reduce their percentage on your draft board. The right way to do this should obviously be informed by an analysis of the data and I'm pretty sure the results will vary by different rounds of the draft.

    I find it very interesting that in their most recent mock draft Fangraphs has only 8 pitchers taken among the first 30. They may have overdone it a little, but that's generally speaking the way to account for the bust rate of pitchers. You have just the elite ones (with upside to compensate for the bust rate) in the first round. And at the very top end of the draft (say the first five picks each year) I think going forward we'll see few pitchers taken.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 05-17-2019 at 02:53 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Just to add a little bit of data on the third round. This has been an unproductive round for us with the notable exception of Kimbrel (college pitcher).

    We've taken HS pitchers in the third round with half of our picks since 2013 without much to show for: Tarnok (2017), Guardado (2015), Salazar (2013). I would favor a move away from them toward HS hitters and college pitchers.

    I'd want to see what each category did across MLB as a group over time rather than just what happened with the Braves.

    At some point, the college reps are just going to reveal a lack of ceiling and it might be better to take a shot at developing a younger player with some possible remaining projection.

    I don't know where that line is as far as Draft round.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    I'd want to see what each category did across MLB as a group over time rather than just what happened with the Braves.

    At some point, the college reps are just going to reveal a lack of ceiling and it might be better to take a shot at developing a younger player with some possible remaining projection.

    I don't know where that line is as far as Draft round.

    The most notable 3rd round picks in the 2006-2010 period:

    Britton (2006) HS pitcher
    Duffy (2007) HS pitcher
    Souza (2007) HS hitter
    Lucroy (2007) C hitter
    Dietrich (2007) HS hitter
    Mercer (2008) C hitter
    Espinosa (2008) C hitter
    Kimbrel (2008) C pitcher
    Seager (2009) C hitter
    Wil Myers (2009) HS hitter
    Realmuto (2010) HS hitter

    Adjusted by # of picks, HS hitters have given the best yield in both the second and third rounds.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 05-17-2019 at 03:37 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    This draft class sucks.
    This is when you separate the "man scouts" from the "boy scouts".
    Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...

    Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?

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    I’m guessing teams in the top 10 are heavily represented at Cal-Arizona State this weekend. Andrew Vaughn had a huge night in the opener, Hunter Bishop went 1-5 with a double and three Ks.

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    hope the braves stay away from Bishop...power tool without hit tool equals fools gold
    Last edited by nsacpi; 05-18-2019 at 11:40 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    hope the braves stay away from Bishop...power tool without hit tool equals fools gold
    Power tool can develop. Can't say the same so much for the 'bat' skills.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Power tool can develop. Can't say the same so much for the 'bat' skills.
    i'm not talking in terms of absolutes...but as a general observation power tool is very unpredictable in the sense that what power at a lower level is only weakly correlated to how it translates at a higher level...the hit tool however tends to have a much higher correlation from one level to the next...you have a better idea of what you are getting

    i'd rather bet on a kid with a good hit tool developing power than a kid with lots of power but lots of swing and miss learning how to hit...as a general proposition...it is always possible to point to exceptions
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Power tool can develop. Can't say the same so much for the 'bat' skills.
    maybe i misunderstood your post or you misunderstood mine...but Bishop HAS the power tool already...at least as it manifests itself at the college level
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Power tool can develop. Can't say the same so much for the 'bat' skills.
    hold on....did you just agree with me...don't do that...it causes confusion
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    hope the braves stay away from Bishop...power tool without hit tool equals fools gold
    I want no part of Cody Johnson Part Deux, if that is what indeed Bishop is.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    hold on....did you just agree with me...don't do that...it causes confusion
    Absolutely agreeing with you.

    I'll try not to let it happen again.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Absolutely agreeing with you.

    I'll try not to let it happen again.
    please don't...its very disorienting...i'm going to have to go lie down with a hot towel over my eyes
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    hold on....did you just agree with me...don't do that...it causes confusion
    You quoted the same post three times. The confusion was obvious and funny.
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    You quoted the same post three times. The confusion was obvious and funny.
    i thought it was a graceful recovery on my part
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    i thought it was a graceful recovery on my part
    Close
    Coppy

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    It’s easy to see why some teams are not sold on Bishop. The arm is barely playable anywhere other than 1b, and there are concerns about the hit tool.

    The best course of action may be to get 3 high risk 45s and see what happens.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    It’s easy to see why some teams are not sold on Bishop. The arm is barely playable anywhere other than 1b, and there are concerns about the hit tool.

    The best course of action may be to get 3 high risk 45s and see what happens.
    I'm in this camp. I like Rutledge enough from the JUCO arms...but I like Daniel Espino so what do I know?

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