Value and Market Valuation: Freeman, Simmons and Heyward

[nsacpi]

Simmons is already arguably the best defensive player in the game.

Freeman is the most consistent and polished hitter. Great at scooping those low throws, which the defensive metrics don't account for, but limited range.

Heyward sometimes looks great with the bat sometimes looks awful. Tremendous defender in right and very good baserunner.

WAR provides one measure of overall value. But what would be your valuation so far this season and for the future. Rank them in terms of which you would prioritize when it comes to signing to a long term deal. Explain your reasoning.

[Braves1976]

I'd personally look to lock-up Simmons long term ASAP before he costs more. My reasoning being what you noted about his defense along with my view that his bat will continue to improve. He will cost a lot more once his bat comes around too. Further, I hope we lock all three up long term as core pieces of our future. Heyward is the best defensive right fielder in the game. Plus he can play any outfield position well if needed.

Also, I see Freeman hitting .300 with power consistently in the future. He's an RBI machine too. Plus he can pick it at first as good as pretty much anyone.

[nsacpi]

I'm not going to give my answer yet, but I do want to mention some considerations that I think are relevant in thinking about how to prioritize them in terms of signing to a long term deal.

1) The quality of the potential replacements to each within our system.

2) The extent to which the market undervalues or overvalues the characteristics that distinguishes each player.

3) The ease with which external replacements could be acquired. Issues of positional scarcity come into play here.

4) The willingness of each player to give a hometown discount. I have no knowledge of this regarding any of these players. But if any of you think you do, pipe up.

5) The likely aging pattern of each player as they move into their peak years and beyond.

[zitothebrave]

This season

Freddie>Jason>Simmons

Future

Jason>Simmons>Freddie

[Braves1976]

According to fangraphs, Simmons is already at 34 DRS and tied with Freeman for the best WAR on the team. Wasn't the previous record 34 DRS (defensive runs saved)? If so, Simmons has already tied it and should break it soon.

I am pretty sure Adam Everett of the 2006 Astros owned the record. Adam didn't even win the gold glove that year showing what a joke MLB can be with such awards. I wouldn't be surprised if Simmons doesn't win it either. Also, Bourn deserved one in centerfield last year but didn't get it.

[Enscheff]

Go ahead and lock up Simmons now. His defense is undervalued, so he should sign for peanuts compared to the other two players. He should age well, and since his value is tied to his glove we are less likely to see his value take a huge hit due to a bad year at the plate.

Freeman is getting better and better and is extremely consistent. If Mac is not signed this offseason you look to extend Freeman. If Mac IS signed this offseason you have to strongly consider the need for Mac to play 1B a few years down the line.

Heyward is going to be a gamble either way. He could easily become a $20M+ per year superstar that Wren signed for a discount, or he could be a "good" player Wren is overpaying. Not sure if it's worth the gamble, but it's not like the Braves have any OF prospects knocking on the door to replace Heyward.

So I say:

Sign Simmons now.

Wait on the situtaion with Mac to sign Freeman.

Take a gamble on Heyward if you like to live dangerously.

[Heyward]

Freeman depends on Mac, but I'd probably do it anyway, his swing is too good he won't get in many long slumps barring injuries.

I'd consider Simmons now, since his hitting will likely improve as he gets older.

I'd extend Heyward ASAP, but I don't think he signs an extension with us. I hope like hell I'm wrong however.

[zbhargrove]

As I said in the Freeman thread, I would extend Freddie soon. Not only has he been our most solid offensive player this year, he's also been one of the main leaders if not the heart of the team. Freeman just keeps going beyond everyone's expectations. He will increase his power at only 23 and he will probably be in the running for a batting title or two. I think Freeman's ceiling is higher than most thought when he was coming through the system. And his defense is vastly underrated because of flawed defensive metrics. Simmons, I also want to extend right away. Dude is just sick defensively and has a ton of talent offensively also. Heyward is the one I'm most unsure about because like others say, he's a gamble. BUT he's the most talented and has the most potential to become a Trout like player.

[50PoundHead]

I think Freeman is the best hitter, but that doesn't make him necessarily the best player. His ceiling is lower than Heyward's, but his probability of reaching his ceiling is pretty high. His hitting fundamentals are so solid. Heyward brings so much to the table and I think of the three, he needs to be locked up for the long term. I love Simmons' defense, but I really don't know about his hitting. There are days I think the Simmons we see now offensively is the best we are going to see.

[zitothebrave]

Freeman, Jason and Simmons should all be extended if we have the ability to adn they have the desire to sign. They're all great players and will be for years to come. Jason and Simmons should be bargains as well since most of their value isn't tied into their offensive numbers.

I would rank them in order I want them extended the same as my future order Jason>Simmons>Freddie

Only reason I put Freddie last is JMO he's the most replaceable by internal options since we have Gattis, Johnson, Terds and many others who can play 1B.

[zbhargrove]

Freeman, Jason and Simmons should all be extended if we have the ability to adn they have the desire to sign. They're all great players and will be for years to come. Jason and Simmons should be bargains as well since most of their value isn't tied into their offensive numbers.

I would rank them in order I want them extended the same as my future order Jason>Simmons>Freddie

Only reason I put Freddie last is JMO he's the most replaceable by internal options since we have Gattis, Johnson, Terds and many others who can play 1B.

I will give you that... first is the position we could most easily fill

[zitothebrave]

BTW we have the ability to keep the 3 of them.

[nsacpi]

I would view Joey T and Gattis as alternatives in the outfield as well. But the defensive loss between Heyward and them is greater than between Freeman and them at first.

[zitothebrave]

I would view Joey T and Gattis as alternatives in the outfield as well. But the defensive loss between Heyward and them is greater than between Freeman and them at first.

Way greater.

[Heyward]

BTW we have the ability to keep the 3 of them.

We can, it's all a matter if they want to stay or not.

Not sure on that.

[gilesfan]

What makes anyone think Gattis can play 1B?

[mfree80]

BTW we have the ability to keep the 3 of them.

I hope and believe you are correct, but the fact that Jason and Freddie declined (reportedly) to talk about extensions prior to this year does give a moment of pause.

[nsacpi]

What makes anyone think Gattis can play 1B?

Would you rather have him in left or first? He's played less first and it shows. But I think he's got a better chance of being adequate (after half a season or so of playing time) at first than in left.

[zitothebrave]

What makes anyone think Gattis can play 1B?

He wasn't horrific over there with litereally no professional experience. Some practice I'm sure he'd improve.

[Heyward]

What makes anyone think Gattis can play 1B?

Well, he could play it if he got enough reps.

There have been worst 1B though defensively.