Official Offseason Thread

[Enscheff]

Just out of curiosity, how do you view Aaron Judge who struggled big time in his first 100 PA in the big leagues in 2016 and how he was able to bounce back. I mean he had a 44% K rate. obviously he became a star after that. But is there anything in Riley's profile that shows he can make a similar turnaround? Judge always had a way better BB rate

The differences between Judge and Riley are huge...

First, Judge has 80 grade power, whereas Riley has closer to 60 grade power. While Riley had a good 94.1 mph average exit velocity, Judge blew him away with a value of 100.2 in 2016. Comparing Riley's power to Judge's is completely laughable. Judge produces the most valuable contact in all of MLB.

Second, Riley's O-Swing% in 2019 was 41.3%, good for 22nd worst out of 320 hitters with 250+ Pas. Judges O-Swing% in 2016 was 33.6%, which would be somewhere in the middle of the pack, and it has since improved to ~25% in subsequent years. Judge's ability to identify bad pitches was far superior to Riley's, even when he was at his worst.

Third, Riley's Z-Contact% of 73.6% in 2019 ranked 3rd worst of those same 320 hitters, meaning Riley struggles greatly to make contact on strikes he decides to swing at. Not being able to make contact on strikes is a pretty big deal for a baseball player. Judges' Z-Contact% has been consistent at around 79% from day 1, and while still bad, better than Riley's...and always has been.

In short, Judge at his worst still hit the ball much harder than Riley, identified strikes much better than Riley, and made more contact than Riley.

The red flags for Riley are right red, and they have been there from the moment he took his first 50 PAs at the MLB level. He is a pure guess hitter, and until he improves upon the metrics I listed, there is no way he will stick at an MLB corner.

Can he improve those metrics? No idea, but I wouldn't bet against it from a talented 22 year old. Even if he can improve those metrics, it would be foolish to pencil him into the lineup for opening day 2020 until he shows positive signs.

[NYCBrave]

The differences between Judge and Riley are huge...

First, Judge has 80 grade power, whereas Riley has closer to 60 grade power. While Riley had a good 94.1 mph average exit velocity, Judge blew him away with a value of 100.2 in 2016. Comparing Riley's power to Judge's is completely laughable. Judge produces the most valuable contact in all of MLB.

Second, Riley's O-Swing% in 2019 was 41.3%, good for 22nd worst out of 320 hitters with 250+ Pas. Judges O-Swing% in 2016 was 33.6%, which would be somewhere in the middle of the pack, and it has since improved to ~25% in subsequent years. Judge's ability to identify bad pitches was far superior to Riley's, even when he was at his worst.

Third, Riley's Z-Contact% of 73.6% in 2019 ranked 3rd worst of those same 320 hitters, meaning Riley struggles greatly to make contact on strikes he decides to swing at. Not being able to make contact on strikes is a pretty big deal for a baseball player. Judges' Z-Contact% has been consistent at around 79% from day 1, and while still bad, better than Riley's...and always has been.

In short, Judge at his worst still hit the ball much harder than Riley, identified strikes much better than Riley, and made more contact than Riley.

The red flags for Riley are right red, and they have been there from the moment he took his first 50 PAs at the MLB level. He is a pure guess hitter, and until he improves upon the metrics I listed, there is no way he will stick at an MLB corner.

Can he improve those metrics? No idea, but I wouldn't bet against it from a talented 22 year old. Even if he can improve those metrics, it would be foolish to pencil him into the lineup for opening day 2020 until he shows positive signs.

Thanks. But this is what I was getting at. Don't we have enough case studies with comparable profiles of poor plate discipline like Riley to know it's highly unlikely he will improve? Players with poor plate discipline usually don't figure it out at the major league level. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[Enscheff]

Thanks. But this is what I was getting at. Don't we have enough case studies with comparable profiles of poor plate discipline like Riley to know it's highly unlikely he will improve? Players with poor plate discipline usually don't figure it out at the major league level. Correct me if I'm wrong.

A guy like Springer improved his Z-Contact% from marks similarly terrible to Riley's to the 80%-85% range he has today. However, he never had an O-Swing% nearly as bad as Riley's.

Baez swings like a maniac at pitches out of the zone, and he figured out how to make it work after ~4 mediocre offensive seasons. Of course, his Z-Contact% is much better than Riley's, and he plays up the middle defense.

There haven't been many guys who swing at as many bad pitches, while missing as many good pitches as Riley...and for good reason. Those guys don't tend to succeed enough to warrant 250 PAs, and the only reason Riley did was the insane lucky streak he hit the moment he was called up.

In fact, I can't find anyone with 250+ PAs with that type of plate discipline profile.

[NYCBrave]

A guy like Springer improved his Z-Contact% from marks similarly terrible to Riley's to the 80%-85% range he has today. However, he never had an O-Swing% nearly as bad as Riley's.

Baez swings like a maniac at pitches out of the zone, and he figured out how to make it work after ~4 mediocre offensive seasons. Of course, his Z-Contact% is much better than Riley's, and he plays up the middle defense.

There haven't been many guys who swing at as many bad pitches, while missing as many good pitches as Riley...and for good reason. Those guys don't tend to succeed enough to warrant 250 PAs, and the only reason Riley did was the insane lucky streak he hit the moment he was called up.

In fact, I can't find anyone with 250+ PAs with that type of plate discipline profile.

Ok good, so your research proved my point. And this is probably a good reason that not only should he not be counted on for a starting role next season, but this is probably the best time to sell high.

[Enscheff]

I would be surprised if any team is dumb enough to be fooled by Riley’s lucky streak.

Casual fans and dumber forum posters, yes. Modern FOs? Doubtful.

[NYCBrave]

I would be surprised if any team is dumb enough to be fooled by Riley’s lucky streak.

Casual fans and dumber forum posters, yes. Modern FOs? Doubtful.

Luckily there are still some Front Offices left that are a bit behind the times. Plus, Riley has a minor league track record. So I don't believe all of the shine is lost.