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Thread: Did the Nats just help us (and the rest of the division)?

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    The Nats wont suck by 2017 but they wont be the juggernaught they are now depending who they lose.

    I think they'll sign at least one of Zimmerman/Fister/Stras long-term.

    They do have Giolito replacing one of them in the near future.

    Fister is the cheapest, Stras has potential elbow problems in the future, and Zimmerman will cost a touch less than what Scherzer got.

    Not a fan of Turner replacing Desmond, massive downgrade all-around there. Yunel is a good stop-gap.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    Trading Justin/Jason was still the right move.

    No chance in hell we get a WC even if they keep him.
    OK cool.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesnumberone View Post
    OK cool.
    So why keep them, just to win a few more games MAYBE than last year then.

    Honestly dont get why some think we can make the playoffs with them while having no money anywhere else.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    So why keep them, just to win a few more games MAYBE than last year then.

    Honestly dont get why some think we can make the playoffs with them while having no money anywhere else.
    Well considering we won....oh what was it....96.....NINETY-SIX.... games with them previously, I don't think it was all that far-fetched.

    * Both would be free agents, so you're looking at possibly big contract season outputs for them.
    * The possibility, albeit not that great, of BJ bouncing back to decency with a new hitting coach.
    * CJ being more productive against righties than last year.
    * Simmons improving.
    * More steady production out of 2B.
    * A good, young rotation, even without Shelby Miller.
    * The bullpen continuing to be one of the best in baseball.

    Good likelihood a lot of that would have happened.

    Even if you take the in-between, 88 wins might get you in the playoffs.

    But nope, no way in hell. Noooooonnnnnneeeeeeee.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesnumberone View Post
    Well considering we won....oh what was it....96.....NINETY-SIX.... games with them previously, I don't think it was all that far-fetched.

    * Both would be free agents, so you're looking at possibly big contract season outputs for them.
    * The possibility, albeit not that great, of BJ bouncing back to decency with a new hitting coach.
    * CJ being more productive against righties than last year.
    * Simmons improving.
    * More steady production out of 2B.
    * A good, young rotation, even without Shelby Miller.
    * The bullpen continuing to be one of the best in baseball.

    Good likelihood a lot of that would have happened.

    Even if you take the in-between, 88 wins might get you in the playoffs.

    But nope, no way in hell. Noooooonnnnnneeeeeeee.
    It's my opinion, but I don't believe so. You cleverly (or conveniently) omitted the fact that we still had good McCann and a healthy (for the most part) Tim Hudson in 2013. We caught lightening in a bottle with Harang last year; the FO correctly assessed we weren't likely to pull 200+ above average innings again off the scrap heap.

    I think we would have been lucky to sniff 83 wins with our prior roster - and we would have been facing a much improved Marlins team and an already strong (now stronger) Nationals team. The Pirates, Padres, Cubs, Giants and Brewers would all be competing with us for the wildcard spots and we would be disadvantaged because of how good our inter division competition is.

    Anyway it's all opinion but stop the masked hyperbole-- neither position can affirmatively state their case so let's just be respectful of the other's viewpoint.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ramadon101 View Post
    It's my opinion, but I don't believe so. You cleverly (or conveniently) omitted the fact that we still had good McCann and a healthy (for the most part) Tim Hudson in 2013. We caught lightening in a bottle with Harang last year; the FO correctly assessed we weren't likely to pull 200+ above average innings again off the scrap heap.

    I think we would have been lucky to sniff 83 wins with our prior roster - and we would have been facing a much improved Marlins team and an already strong (now stronger) Nationals team. The Pirates, Padres, Cubs, Giants and Brewers would all be competing with us for the wildcard spots and we would be disadvantaged because of how good our inter division competition is.

    Anyway it's all opinion but stop the masked hyperbole-- neither position can affirmatively state their case so let's just be respectful of the other's viewpoint.
    I think Gattis and an overall improved staff could have neutralized the loss of McCann and Hudson. And I'm not the one who said it was a sure thing one way or another. Heyward said no chance in hell. Not having another Aaron Harang has nothing to do with any of this. Either way, all the points I mentioned are plenty reason to believe we could have been in the conversation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zitothebrave View Post
    Nats will have a little moroe vertical room, but not much is my hunch. THey aren't gonna be the Dodgers or Yankees cause they dont' have the TV deal that have. MLB darling or not. Cards are the MLB darling and they have never flown that high. They have a lot of guys who'll be FA who they can replace but won't be easy.

    Nats are heading towards their young talent bubble. Getting Scherzer is a go fior it now move with some long term potnetial Nats FAs (sorry if I'm including cut or traded players, I don't care about the Nats that much) each of the next 3 seasons with other notes

    After 2015
    Zimmermann
    Fister
    Desmond
    Span
    Thorton

    After 2016
    Gio (option)
    Strasburg
    Storen
    Ramos
    Stammen
    First arb year for Harper so a big raise will be happening there

    After 2017
    Werth (which is good for them)
    Gio (if his option is picked up)
    Espinosa
    Last season of Harper.
    Thanks Zito, that was my point that [MENTION=99]gilesfan[/MENTION] doesn't quite understand (though it's pretty obvious why), that while they have a lot of money coming off the books after 2015, they have a core of players that are going to start to get extremely costly (Strasburg, Harper and Rendon mainly) not to mention the already large contracts of Werth, R. Zimmerman, (Gio to an extent), and now Scherzer. I just don't know if it was wise to spend $210 million on a pitcher when you already have a stellar rotation and the possibility of losing four key pieces.
    "Don't tell me the sky's the limit when there are footprints on the moon"

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    Quote Originally Posted by ramadon101 View Post
    It's my opinion, but I don't believe so. You cleverly (or conveniently) omitted the fact that we still had good McCann and a healthy (for the most part) Tim Hudson in 2013. We caught lightening in a bottle with Harang last year; the FO correctly assessed we weren't likely to pull 200+ above average innings again off the scrap heap.

    I think we would have been lucky to sniff 83 wins with our prior roster - and we would have been facing a much improved Marlins team and an already strong (now stronger) Nationals team. The Pirates, Padres, Cubs, Giants and Brewers would all be competing with us for the wildcard spots and we would be disadvantaged because of how good our inter division competition is.

    Anyway it's all opinion but stop the masked hyperbole-- neither position can affirmatively state their case so let's just be respectful of the other's viewpoint.
    Not to mention the fact we lost our best starting pitcher in Medlen, who we had during that 96-win season.
    "Don't tell me the sky's the limit when there are footprints on the moon"

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    Quote Originally Posted by blueagleace1 View Post
    Thanks Zito, that was my point that [MENTION=99]gilesfan[/MENTION] doesn't quite understand (though it's pretty obvious why), that while they have a lot of money coming off the books after 2015, they have a core of players that are going to start to get extremely costly (Strasburg, Harper and Rendon mainly) not to mention the already large contracts of Werth, R. Zimmerman, (Gio to an extent), and now Scherzer. I just don't know if it was wise to spend $210 million on a pitcher when you already have a stellar rotation and the possibility of losing four key pieces.
    Those four pieces *could be replaced with Trea Turner, Tanner Roark, Max Scherzer, and Michael Taylor.
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    Quote Originally Posted by gilesfan View Post
    Those four pieces *could be replaced with Trea Turner, Tanner Roark, Max Scherzer, and Michael Taylor.
    BRyce Harper after this year is the bigger concern. He's gonna kill in arbitration. And his FA deal will be massive. You can bet for sure his age at FA will be massive leverage for BOras to get him a mega-deal whether he's really worth it or not. If Harper can't stay on the field, Nats may be wiser to get rid of him this offseason and go all in on Jason or Justin who could at least come close to replacing Harper on a production standpoint.
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    Quote Originally Posted by zitothebrave View Post
    BRyce Harper after this year is the bigger concern. He's gonna kill in arbitration. And his FA deal will be massive. You can bet for sure his age at FA will be massive leverage for BOras to get him a mega-deal whether he's really worth it or not. If Harper can't stay on the field, Nats may be wiser to get rid of him this offseason and go all in on Jason or Justin who could at least come close to replacing Harper on a production standpoint.
    Havent heard any contract talks. They would be wise to try to sign him now while he's coming off an injury plagued season. Boras won't take a discount though.
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    Quote Originally Posted by gilesfan View Post
    Those four pieces *could be replaced with Trea Turner, Tanner Roark, Max Scherzer, and Michael Taylor.
    Trea Turner is not a piece IMO....from watching him in college for 3 years. He's the Malik guy we got from the Padres but not as fast after the ankle break.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesnumberone View Post
    I think Gattis and an overall improved staff could have neutralized the loss of McCann and Hudson. And I'm not the one who said it was a sure thing one way or another. Heyward said no chance in hell. Not having another Aaron Harang has nothing to do with any of this. Either way, all the points I mentioned are plenty reason to believe we could have been in the conversation.
    Not having another Aaron Harang has alot to do with this, actually. As someone else noted, it wasn't just Hudson but also 200 IP of 121+ ERA pitching from Medlen that we had in 2013 that we'd have to replace. The pitchers we could have afforded this winter are crapshoots and are no sure fire bets to replicate that kind of production. Again - my opinion - but we had a severely flawed roster going into this winter with an even weaker farm system incapable of providing quality replacements if any one of our horses went down. And if we had lost out on a WC, we'd then be in the position where we'd be receiving draft picks with a bottom 5 farm system in all of MLB one full year out from opening up the new stadium.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gilesfan View Post
    Havent heard any contract talks. They would be wise to try to sign him now while he's coming off an injury plagued season. Boras won't take a discount though.
    Boras won't let him extend, short of a massive overpay or Harper working around Boras ala Druw, Boras has a clear plan that's followed pretty much exclusively. Go to freeagency and take the biggest contract. Given the premium on right handed power and his age, Harper will take a haul if he keeps playing like he has.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Russ2dollas View Post
    Trea Turner is not a piece IMO....from watching him in college for 3 years. He's the Malik guy we got from the Padres but not as fast after the ankle break.
    He's certainly a piece because he's projected to be a ML starting SS due to speed/defense alone. Whether or not he hits will be a determination on how good of a major leaguer he is.

    He was clocked at 3.42 seconds to first base after the ankle break. Here is a writeup from fangraphs on him....it mentions the mechanical adjustments he's made since college. (hit .323/.406/.448 in a ball last year)

    Turner is polarizing but more because he hasn’t played much in pro ball and he had a bad draft year at North Carolina State. Scouts with history back to his underclass years with the Wolfpack (the above video is chronological and start in his sophomore year and with Team USA later that summer) are more optimistic because they saw the good version of Turner and know that a mechanical adjustment can explain almost all of his offensive struggles.

    Turner had a couple minor leg injuries and then spread his feet too far apart, probably to generate more power, which caused his base to be weak and collapse at contact, undermining his natural bat control. He made the adjustment weeks before the draft and everything seemed in order in pro ball. Turner taps into his raw power in games when he’s making hard contact and he could be an 8-12 homer guy at maturity, but that isn’t really a big part of his game, more of a perk when he’s making lots of contact. With a full season in 2015 of solid performance, I would likely adjust Turner’s hit grade up at least one notch, as I’m already on the optimistic side right now versus scouts who only saw him in college (mostly early) in his draft spring.

    Turner was a late bloomer that was largely unscouted in high school until very late his senior spring and he played third base his freshman year in college. He slid over to shortstop as a sophomore and eventually settled in to where his hands, instincts and actions are enough to be average at the position and his 55 arm is enough to make the play in the hole. Due to some of those minor league injuries, Turner’s 80 speed is now more of a 70 in game situations, but that difference is tough to notice unless you’re using a stopwatch.

    Note: As I tweeted after Turner’s name came up in the rumors around the deal that he became eligible to be traded on December 13th, which was exactly 6 months after he signed his draft contract on June 13th. A player-to-be-named-later can be in question for up to 6 months and a drafted player has to wait until one year after he signs his contract to be traded. Turner will play for the Padres organization until June 13th, 2015, then will be shipped to the Nationals.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ramadon101 View Post
    Not having another Aaron Harang has alot to do with this, actually. As someone else noted, it wasn't just Hudson but also 200 IP of 121+ ERA pitching from Medlen that we had in 2013 that we'd have to replace. The pitchers we could have afforded this winter are crapshoots and are no sure fire bets to replicate that kind of production. Again - my opinion - but we had a severely flawed roster going into this winter with an even weaker farm system incapable of providing quality replacements if any one of our horses went down. And if we had lost out on a WC, we'd then be in the position where we'd be receiving draft picks with a bottom 5 farm system in all of MLB one full year out from opening up the new stadium.
    Wood and the improvement from Julio essentially replaced Medlen. Santana and Harang more than replaced Hudson and Maholm. The issue was from the pitching stand point was Minor having a down year. Which you really can't predict. Lets pretend that Minor is a virtual lock to have numbers similar to 2013, Julio is better than anything we had in 2013, Wood is better than anything we had in 2013. If those constants remain, I see no reason that we can't replace the very meh performances of Hudson and Maholm in this cheap market for pitchers.

    I'm fine with wanting a rebuild if that's what you want, but the idea that we couldn't compete is just obtuse.
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    Turner had a 478 BABIP. I'm going to say that he was slightly lucky in his small sample size.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Turner had a 478 BABIP. I'm going to say that he was slightly lucky in his small sample size.
    At one of his stops. (.278 in the other part). He's obviously not going to be a .350 hitter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by gilesfan View Post
    At one of his stops. (.278 in the other part). He's obviously not going to be a .350 hitter.
    His K rate or his absense of power is also a concern.
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