Keith Law Releases Top 100, Includes Seven Braves

[bamfin21]

Keith Law released his Top 100 prospect list this morning. Seven Braves were on the list and here is where they fell:

13. Dansby Swanson SS
20. Ozhaino Albies SS
30. Sean Newcomb LHP
39. Aaron Blair RHP
43. Kolby Allard LHP
80. Touki Toussaint RHP
96. Max Fried LHP

A few takeaways:

He's higher on Fried and Toussaint than most sites are and isn't as high on Riley.
He said that Blair should spend the entire season in the Braves rotation.
Has major doubts on Newcomb, but loves his stuff.

Anyway, I'm ready for some #hottakes!

[bravesfanMatt]

Keith Law released his Top 100 prospect list this morning. Seven Braves were on the list and here is where they fell:

13. Dansby Swanson SS
20. Ozhaino Albies SS
30. Sean Newcomb LHP
39. Aaron Blair RHP
43. Kolby Allard LHP
80. Touki Toussaint RHP
96. Max Fried LHP

A few takeaways:

He's higher on Fried and Toussaint than most sites are and isn't as high on Riley.
He said that Blair should spend the entire season in the Braves rotation.
Has major doubts on Newcomb, but loves his stuff.

Anyway, I'm ready for some #hottakes!

Figured he had around 7.. surprised at Fried and not Riley.. but having the Braves as his #1 Farm when everywhere else has them no higher than #3..

[Tapate50]

Ready to get a look at Fried.

Read something over at FGs that made me a bit depressed about our ML ready pitching... the reviews weren't as positive as I'd hoped, but its early I guess.

[smootness]

I'm guessing Riley was one of the 2-3 he said just missed his top 100.

Law takes into account farm depth more than most, I think. While there are a couple systems that have a better group of top 2-3 prospects, there is no system that comes close to us in quality depth. And that gap is only going to grow this summer.

[MadduxFanII]

In the spirit of discarding the highest and lowest scores from the Olympic diving competition, I tend to discount Law's opinion of our system just a little. Not completely, of course- Law knows what he's talking about. But he's been so effusive, and so much of his reaction to the re-build seems inspired by a deep loathing of the Wrens, that I try to remind myself to hold off a just bit with Keith.

[bamfin21]

On Riley, Law said he would release his "just missed" list tomorrow. I'm sure we'll see Riley on that list and maybe Lucas Sims as well.

[UNCBlue012]

Fried above Riley is so surprising. Especially with how high Riley was on some of the other lists. Nonetheless, it just shows that we have so much talent, that you can rank it all over the place.

[bravesfanMatt]

As much as I like Riley, I can see the concern regarding him. He had a high swing and miss %.. I am excited to see how he does this summer. If he stays hot and dominates A ball like he did rookie, he will shoot up the prospect list.

[praeceps93]

Fried above Riley is so surprising. Especially with how high Riley was on some of the other lists. Nonetheless, it just shows that we have so much talent, that you can rank it all over the place.

For anyone who gives a high degree of weight to pedigree, it's not super surprising to rank Fried higher than Riley. Riley had plenty of questions pre-draft, and Fried went #7 overall I believe. Given how common TJS is these days, it's entirely possible Fried comes back and dominates.

[smootness]

In the spirit of discarding the highest and lowest scores from the Olympic diving competition, I tend to discount Law's opinion of our system just a little. Not completely, of course- Law knows what he's talking about. But he's been so effusive, and so much of his reaction to the re-build seems inspired by a deep loathing of the Wrens, that I try to remind myself to hold off a just bit with Keith.

I'm not sure he's overreacting to any Wren hatred; I just think he genuinely dislikes the strategy he employed, which was to prioritize floor over ceiling. Law obviously finds ceiling most important, so it makes sense that he would dislike Wren's strategy and like Coppy's.

[praeceps93]

I'm not sure he's overreacting to any Wren hatred; I just think he genuinely dislikes the strategy he employed, which was to prioritize floor over ceiling. Law obviously finds ceiling most important, so it makes sense that he would dislike Wren's strategy and like Coppy's.

Can't say I don't agree with liking ceiling over floor. Having a bunch of solid MLB regulars in the farm vs. a few potential superstars and a few busts is an interesting question; I lean towards superstars, but that's just me.

[50PoundHead]

Can't say I don't agree with liking ceiling over floor. Having a bunch of solid MLB regulars in the farm vs. a few potential superstars and a few busts is an interesting question; I lean towards superstars, but that's just me.

I don't follow it that closely anymore, but I think under the Wren regime (and maybe Wren wasn't solely responsible) we had some mid-floor guys and not much depth. I think depth was a bigger problem than quality. I think depth becomes even more important if you're going to have a fair number of higher-risk guys.

As per Riley, his advancement from his first few games in the GCL to the end of the season in Danville was nothing short of remarkable, but I don't put that much stock in rookie league ball. He keeps it rolling in Rome, he will shoot up everyone's list. He kind of reminds me of Klesko in terms of build and the fact that like Klesko, Riley was considered a pitching prospect by as many teams as saw him as a 3B. Braves struck gold by keeping Klesko on the offensive side of things and if that works as well with Riley as it did with Klesko, somebody on the staff is a gifted talent assessor.

[clvclv]

I'm personally not surprised that someone eventually slipped Fried in there, but a little surprised it was Law. Of course, I've been much higher on Fried than most here. I won't argue with anyone who points out the injury concerns, but that talk usually drowns out the pure talent discussion. JMO but that's really unfair, and a little short-sighted. There are plenty of "ifs" with all these kids, but if you go back to when he was drafted there were fewer questions about Max than anyone now in our system not named Swanson. Fried wasn't just considered a high-ceiling guy, he was widely expected to be no worse than a good #2 even if he didn't reach that ceiling. A quote from his 2013 BA scouting blurb...

"The Future: Improving his changeup and stamina will be focal points for Fried as he embarks on his first full pro season, probably with low Class A Fort Wayne. He has both a high ceiling and a high floor, and he could zoom through the minors."

That was back when there were far fewer young arms zipping through systems - particularly TOR types. I don't remember hearing anyone mention that they felt that his Harvard-Westlake teammate Lucas Giolito should have been taken ahead of him. That speaks volumes to me. The Kershaw comps that were being tossed around at the time were made by quite a few of the bigger prospect hounds in the business (Callis and Mayo to name two, and those guys don't typically toss that kind of comp around lightly).

[praeceps93]

I'm personally not surprised that someone eventually slipped Fried in there, but a little surprised it was Law. Of course, I've been much higher on Fried than most here. I won't argue with anyone who points out the injury concerns, but that talk usually drowns out the pure talent discussion. JMO but that's really unfair, and a little short-sighted. There are plenty of "ifs" with all these kids, but if you go back to when he was drafted there were fewer questions about Max than anyone now in our system not named Swanson. Fried wasn't just considered a high-ceiling guy, he was widely expected to be no worse than a good #2 even if he didn't reach that ceiling. A quote from his 2013 BA scouting blurb...

"The Future: Improving his changeup and stamina will be focal points for Fried as he embarks on his first full pro season, probably with low Class A Fort Wayne. He has both a high ceiling and a high floor, and he could zoom through the minors."

That was back when there were far fewer young arms zipping through systems - particularly TOR types. I don't remember hearing anyone mention that they felt that his Harvard-Westlake teammate Lucas Giolito should have been taken ahead of him. That speaks volumes to me. The Kershaw comps that were being tossed around at the time were made by quite a few of the bigger prospect hounds in the business (Callis and Mayo to name two, and those guys don't typically toss that kind of comp around lightly).

How awesome would it be to have our very own Giolito?

[clvclv]

How awesome would it be to have our very own Giolito?

That's why I mention that I hate that the injury talk drowns everything else out for lots of people. Giolito went through everything early just like Fried is, and you hardly hear a peep about the fact that he's had TJ Surgery.

Hart has had that cat that ate the canary grin since the day he got Max, and rightfully so. I understand the talk about how badly the Arizona front office has been fleeced by us, but Hart has said since day one that they NEVER thought they'd get a chance to steal Fried away - most people just write that off because of the injury.

[praeceps93]

That's why I mention that I hate that the injury talk drowns everything else out for lots of people. Giolito went through everything early just like Fried is, and you hardly hear a peep about the fact that he's had TJ Surgery.

Hart has had that cat that ate the canary grin since the day he got Max, and rightfully so. I understand the talk about how badly the Arizona front office has been fleeced by us, but Hart has said since day one that they NEVER thought they'd get a chance to steal Fried away - most people just write that off because of the injury.

I think the caution on prospect lists currently is explainable; TJS, while very common now, still could really affect Fried's ceiling. However, if he comes back rolling, I expect he'll jump super high into lists. His pedigree and ceiling are a prospect writer's wet dream.

[Russ2dollas]

Keith Law released his Top 100 prospect list this morning. Seven Braves were on the list and here is where they fell:

13. Dansby Swanson SS
20. Ozhaino Albies SS
30. Sean Newcomb LHP
39. Aaron Blair RHP
43. Kolby Allard LHP
80. Touki Toussaint RHP
96. Max Fried LHP

A few takeaways:

He's higher on Fried and Toussaint than most sites are and isn't as high on Riley.
He said that Blair should spend the entire season in the Braves rotation.
Has major doubts on Newcomb, but loves his stuff.

Anyway, I'm ready for some #hottakes!

He's very high on Touki. Touki seems like he's a small % chance of ace or a bust.
Fried's comments match others, just not the ranking. I just think most people are waiting to see him pitch before ranking. Klaw obviously has seen enough TJs to not worry about it.

Blair in the rotation this year is interesting. I would think he'd at least miss the first month.

I didn't read him as having doubts on Newcomb. I think he has doubts that he's a TOR b/c of too many walks. But it didn't sound like doubts to me. Just saying he might be a stud 3-4 b/c of walks and maybe have some bum outings when wild instead of a steady 1-2. For giving up Simba I think he needs to be a TOR.

Lower on Swanson than some. A number of SS ranked a head of him. Almost sounded like Klaw would put Swanson at 2B and Albies at SS. But that is reading way between the lines.

I don't think Riley belongs on this list. SSS in a big way for Riley. If he performs w/i 75% of what he did last year then he'll be on the list next year no problem.

Simms is the one that I think deserves to be on here instead of Touki. I know Simms struggled, but he has electric stuff and had some electric results late and up a level.

[rico43]

As much as I like Riley, I can see the concern regarding him. He had a high swing and miss %.. I am excited to see how he does this summer. If he stays hot and dominates A ball like he did rookie, he will shoot up the prospect list.

The high swing and miss % to me isn't as valid for Riley because he had such a clear before-and-after break when he found his groove. I know these are stone-age stats, but consider:

He began his career 1-for-22 (.045) with 11 strikeouts. He ended the season 21-for-48 (.438), htting safely in 14 of 15, with 11 strikeouts.

[Enscheff]

He's very high on Touki. Touki seems like he's a small % chance of ace or a bust.
Fried's comments match others, just not the ranking. I just think most people are waiting to see him pitch before ranking. Klaw obviously has seen enough TJs to not worry about it.

Blair in the rotation this year is interesting. I would think he'd at least miss the first month.

I didn't read him as having doubts on Newcomb. I think he has doubts that he's a TOR b/c of too many walks. But it didn't sound like doubts to me. Just saying he might be a stud 3-4 b/c of walks and maybe have some bum outings when wild instead of a steady 1-2. For giving up Simba I think he needs to be a TOR.

Lower on Swanson than some. A number of SS ranked a head of him. Almost sounded like Klaw would put Swanson at 2B and Albies at SS. But that is reading way between the lines.

I don't think Riley belongs on this list. SSS in a big way for Riley. If he performs w/i 75% of what he did last year then he'll be on the list next year no problem.

Simms is the one that I think deserves to be on here instead of Touki. I know Simms struggled, but he has electric stuff and had some electric results late and up a level.

It's rare that guys with TOR potential bust completely (barring injury, of course). Guys with the stuff to be TOR pitchers tend to be good relievers if they can't cut it in the rotation. We are about to see Folty do exactly that, just like Viz has already done.

So you get yourself a bunch of guys with TOR potential, let 1/3 of them get hurt, 1/3 of them make up your shut down BP, and the other 1/3 fill out your rotation. Just be sure to trade them with 1-2 years of control remaining so you aren't paying top dollar for a guy that is bound to get injured.

[cajunrevenge]

If Riley has a good year Law will change his mind. Personally I take rookie ball stats with a grain of salt. Even Cody Johnson mashed at Danville.