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Thread: Acuna

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    People need to realize that posters like thethe and clv do not base their views on facts. Instead, they take a point of view, and then morph their interpretation of available facts to fit their point of view.

    So when Heyward struggles, it is proof they were right that he wasn't a good hitter. When someone points out the facts showing Heyward was a good hitter until last season, in their heads that means the data proves the league just hadn't figured out how to exploit him yet.

    Same thing when presented with the fact that pitching prospects are more risky and less valuable than hitting prospects. Any normally rational human would conclude that it's wise to invest in hitting prospects. However, since thethe is the ultimate Braves homer, and the Braves are focusing on pitching, he morphs the fact into evidence proving it's a good thing to stockpile pitching.

    It is called confirmation bias, and it is completely opposite of having an intuitive and curious intellect.
    I smell some things in this post that don't add up.

    First, the value of position players vs pitchers. I'd point you to the hauls closer's got at the dead line last year as a prime example of the value of pitchers.

    Second, Sure there is more risk in pitchers. But what is the smarter investment? Developing your own pitchers on the "cheap" (then selling or letting walk before they hit 30) or paying for 30 year old free agent pitchers looking for the longest term, biggest money deal? Which path is "wiser" for a non top 5 payroll team?

    You only need 8 position players at a time. You need what.... 20 (?) pitchers during a MLB season to just make it through. Not excel, just to get through. So you have to have over TWICE the number of QUALITY, not just a guy, pitchers to get it done during the mlb season and likely more if injuries or luck runs on some of them.

    I don't necessarily think this is a right\wrong situation, just a different way of building a team.

    The way THIS team is currently constructed, we shouldn't have to spend money on an ACE or high leverage bull pen options. Thought being, we can buy FA position players to plug gaps in our development with WISER investments like FA position players.
    Ivermectin Man

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    It's because when presented with facts thethe goes off the rails about something not even related and makes no sense. Nobody predicted Heyward to have a crappy year at the plate in 2016. The criticism of a mega Heyward deal was that you are going to be paying him big money into his 30's when his defense is likely to decline which is where he gets a lot of his value. Not that he would suddenly forget how to hit.
    So you're saying that nobody on this board has ever said that Heyward wasn't a good hitter and the majority of his value is in his defense? Are you for getting the constant criticisms of him rolling over to the second baseman? How about yell at him to move close to the plate? Mocking of his weak power?

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    So you're saying that nobody on this board has ever said that Heyward wasn't a good hitter and the majority of his value is in his defense? Are you for getting the constant criticisms of him rolling over to the second baseman? How about yell at him to move close to the plate? Mocking of his weak power?
    I'm sure people have said that. People also say Teheran is an ace and Kemp is a good player. I'm talking about having intelligence discussions and not what's said in game day threads.

    Do you agree or disagree that Heyward was a good MLB hitter until last year? I mean it's pretty obvious what baseball as a whole thought of Heward's offensive abilities compared to Braves fans who may or may not have an agenda.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tapate50 View Post
    I smell some things in this post that don't add up.

    First, the value of position players vs pitchers. I'd point you to the hauls closer's got at the dead line last year as a prime example of the value of pitchers.
    I would point out there is a difference between valuing hitting/pitching prospects and already established MLB players. And the main reason for this is the higher bust rate of pitching prospects. That's a huge factor. Once you get actually get to the show and perform then that obstacle has been passed and things are different.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    I'm sure people have said that. People also say Teheran is an ace and Kemp is a good player. I'm talking about having intelligence discussions and not what's said in game day threads.

    Do you agree or disagree that Heyward was a good MLB hitter until last year? I mean it's pretty obvious what baseball as a whole thought of Heward's offensive abilities compared to Braves fans who may or may not have an agenda.
    How do you know what baseball as a whole thought? I frequently remember the metz broadcasters, specifically Keith hernandez, talk about all the issues he had in swing for years. Repeatedly saying that freeman was the far superior hitter before freeman broke out.

    So when you make a statement like how baseball thought what does that mean?

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    How do you know what baseball as a whole thought? I frequently remember the metz broadcasters, specifically Keith hernandez, talk about all the issues he had in swing for years. Repeatedly saying that freeman was the far superior hitter before freeman broke out.

    So when you make a statement like how baseball thought what does that mean?
    Contract offers from MLB gm's. Statistical analysis. Articles from MLB beat writers. All painted a picture that Heyward was a good hitter and great defender. Pretty sure that would be the opinion of most Braves fans at that time too. Are you going to deny that wasn't the consensus regarding him as a player?

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Contract offers from MLB gm's. Statistical analysis. Articles from MLB beat writers. All painted a picture that Heyward was a good hitter and great defender. Pretty sure that would be the opinion of most Braves fans at that time too. Are you going to deny that wasn't the consensus regarding him as a player?
    Do you know that all gms thought that? I don't dispute that many felt he was an ok/good hitter but this isn't a unanimous thing here...at least we don't know it is.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    People need to realize that posters like thethe and clv do not base their views on facts. Instead, they take a point of view, and then morph their interpretation of available facts to fit their point of view.

    So when Heyward struggles, it is proof they were right that he wasn't a good hitter. When someone points out the facts showing Heyward was a good hitter until last season, in their heads that means the data proves the league just hadn't figured out how to exploit him yet.

    Same thing when presented with the fact that pitching prospects are more risky and less valuable than hitting prospects. Any normally rational human would conclude that it's wise to invest in hitting prospects. However, since thethe is the ultimate Braves homer, and the Braves are focusing on pitching, he morphs the fact into evidence proving it's a good thing to stockpile pitching.

    It is called confirmation bias, and it is completely opposite of having an intuitive and curious intellect.
    Pitching prospects being more "risky" than hitting prospects, even if a fact, does not necessarily lead to the conclusion that it is smarter to draft hitters in general or that it isn't wise to draft pitching prospects in a given draft or for a given team.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    People need to realize that posters like thethe and clv do not base their views on facts. Instead, they take a point of view, and then morph their interpretation of available facts to fit their point of view.

    So when Heyward struggles, it is proof they were right that he wasn't a good hitter. When someone points out the facts showing Heyward was a good hitter until last season, in their heads that means the data proves the league just hadn't figured out how to exploit him yet.

    Same thing when presented with the fact that pitching prospects are more risky and less valuable than hitting prospects. Any normally rational human would conclude that it's wise to invest in hitting prospects. However, since thethe is the ultimate Braves homer, and the Braves are focusing on pitching, he morphs the fact into evidence proving it's a good thing to stockpile pitching.

    It is called confirmation bias, and it is completely opposite of having an intuitive and curious intellect.
    You've literally describe 95% of all the posts you've made on this board.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Do you know that all gms thought that? I don't dispute that many felt he was an ok/good hitter but this isn't a unanimous thing here...at least we don't know it is.
    Yup, never the superstar/future HOFer hitter he was projected to be from certain elements. His defense was never discussed by this same group until it could be used as subterfuge. Otherwise, a big freaking deal would've been made out of McLouth getting a Gold Glove at CF.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tapate50 View Post
    I smell some things in this post that don't add up.

    First, the value of position players vs pitchers. I'd point you to the hauls closer's got at the dead line last year as a prime example of the value of pitchers.

    Second, Sure there is more risk in pitchers. But what is the smarter investment? Developing your own pitchers on the "cheap" (then selling or letting walk before they hit 30) or paying for 30 year old free agent pitchers looking for the longest term, biggest money deal? Which path is "wiser" for a non top 5 payroll team?

    You only need 8 position players at a time. You need what.... 20 (?) pitchers during a MLB season to just make it through. Not excel, just to get through. So you have to have over TWICE the number of QUALITY, not just a guy, pitchers to get it done during the mlb season and likely more if injuries or luck runs on some of them.

    I don't necessarily think this is a right\wrong situation, just a different way of building a team.

    The way THIS team is currently constructed, we shouldn't have to spend money on an ACE or high leverage bull pen options. Thought being, we can buy FA position players to plug gaps in our development with WISER investments like FA position players.
    Position prospects provide more value than pitching prospects:

    http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/...dated-edition/

    I'm not really interested in hashing this argument out again with someone. The proof is in data spelled out in the linked article. Whether or not you decide to let your confirmation bias based on "the best thing for the Braves" to cloud your judgement is entirely up to you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Pitching prospects being more "risky" than hitting prospects, even if a fact, does not necessarily lead to the conclusion that it is smarter to draft hitters in general or that it isn't wise to draft pitching prospects in a given draft or for a given team.
    Again, I linked the article that contains the data. And again, it's up to you whether or not you want to let your "Braves way" confirmation bias dictate the conclusions you draw from that data.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Do you know that all gms thought that? I don't dispute that many felt he was an ok/good hitter but this isn't a unanimous thing here...at least we don't know it is.
    Since you seem to be sure that he was not a good hitter prior to 2016 then why don't you share with us some proof besides your personal feelings and something Keith Hernandez has said.

    That seems to be a pretty new development. Once again this is the Andruw effect. Some people bought into the hype to much that when Heyward failed to live up to it offensively that some can't appreciate what he actually did and consider it a failure. It's really quite sad.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Since you seem to be sure that he was not a good hitter prior to 2016 then why don't you share with us some proof besides your personal feelings and something Keith Hernandez has said.

    That seems to be a pretty new development. Once again this is the Andruw effect. Some people bought into the hype to much that when Heyward failed to live up to it offensively that some can't appreciate what he actually did and consider it a failure. It's really quite sad.
    Heyward wishes he was as good of a hitter as Druw.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Heyward wishes he was as good of a hitter as Druw.
    You're missing the point. The koolaid can warp ones reality.

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    Druw sucked major ass wind in his last year with the Braves and through that Dodgers contract.

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    Javy was another one. Sucked ass wind the season b4 his contract year. Got roided up to get FA deal. Had one (equivalent) decent year with the Orioles, and reverted back to mediocrity. Then *poof*.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Again, I linked the article that contains the data. And again, it's up to you whether or not you want to let your "Braves way" confirmation bias dictate the conclusions you draw from that data.
    I like the article. It's an interesting exercise. But to begin with, it is hardly a definitive analysis. One wonders what sort of bias is passed along from using ba rankings for example.

    Even if the conclusion you draw, that on balance hitters are better bets than pitchers, is correct, that doesn't mean the best path is necessarily to accumulate hitters. That ignores acquisition costs.

    Also the article points to possible sample issues.

    And states pretty plainly that the least likely to bust group is elite pitching, which performs in wins pretty close to the hitter group.

    Moreover, the predictiveness is a question. You don't necessarily know for sure if you are drafting a top 100 ba prospect. And it is a moving target with prospects falling in and out of that list.

    I think it's interesting, but I think you draw an awfully broad conclusion from it which you have supported in past with anecdotal performances by big market teams.

    There are many moving parts here, and different resources in different places.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Knucksie View Post
    Yup, never the superstar/future HOFer hitter he was projected to be from certain elements. His defense was never discussed by this same group until it could be used as subterfuge. Otherwise, a big freaking deal would've been made out of McLouth getting a Gold Glove at CF.
    Are you trying to argue that McLouth's GG proves he was a great defender?

    He was not, he was below-average to bad. And his offense was far worse than Heyward's.

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    Enscheff, you know it's a more nuanced discussion than simply, 'Position prospects are more valuable, therefore stocking up on pitching prospects is dumb.'

    At least, I hope you know that. It actually does make logical sense that because pitching prospects are more risky, therefore slightly less valuable on average, but you still have to have pitchers on your roster, it's a good idea for a smaller market team to stockpile enough pitching prospects to feel good about ending up with a rotation out of your farm system.

    The risk of pitching prospects is already baked into their value, meaning it is easier to get them on the market than similar hitting prospects. So we definitely have made a point to get plenty of pitching prospects, but getting an equal number of similar hitting prospects in return was likely not possible.

    And we are doing just fine on the positional prospect side. I really don't understand the criticism.

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