Colon, at least, is going to be a huge influence.
Managuarantano's Volunteers (03-24-2017), nsacpi (03-24-2017)
Julio3000 (03-24-2017), Managuarantano's Volunteers (03-24-2017)
nsacpi (03-25-2017)
My fear:
I worry that we will win "just" enough to be somewhat in the race at the deadline. So instead of trading the pitcher(s) that have good years (between Colon, Dickey and Garcia), we keep them all and make some dumb trades to improve the team and actually GIVE up prospects (at a high price), for guys that won't come close to making us contenders, but at the same time are costly at the deadline. The old guys do good enough that they keep them all and get nothing for them, and even if we have young guys that are ready...there is no spot for them, because we favor experience "if" we make the playoffs. In the end we barely miss the playoffs. So, we miss out on the prospects we could have had on deadline trades, we give up some nice mid talent prospects for guys that we might not even need the next year, we stunt the growth of our young guys that prove ready because they have to stay in AAA, and we end up in a WAY worse draft position. That's pretty much my fear in a nutshell, and don't even act like with the new ball park if they have even a "chance" to make the playoffs (no matter how piss poor it will be), they will go for it.
Ventura's Stolen Bases
Were you worried that they would keep Bud Norris?
I would worry about whether they'll be good enough to trade or if they'll stay healthy, not if Coppy will trade them.
These guys aren't Bud Norris. We signed him for a bag of bats off the scrap heap.
I'm reasonably sure at least one (and probably two ), will be good enough. Track records don't lie. If Garcia is indeed heathy and being it's a contract year for (meaning he will try harder...they always do), he could be a huge chip as a lefty.
I get that you worry about them being productive, but comparing them to Bud Norris doesn't make any sense.
Ventura's Stolen Bases
Got Jhoulys Chacin's and Bud Norris' last year mixed up, thought Bud was like a 1.6 WAR guy last year which is what I expect from Dickey.
I don't think there's any doubt Albies will be up this year, and relatively soon. I also don't think we cut Phillips... he'll either agree to be traded if we can get a deal worked out or he'll ride the bench if Albies is producing. Although, with how little we are paying him, we could just cut him.
Albies will absolutely be up this year, no question.
They could trade Phillips, let him play some 3B, or bring him off the bench. But the question of what to do with Phillips won't have an impact on what we do with Albies.
Back to the original question, I'd be shocked if we win more than 75. With the offensive and defensive liabilities we have at the outfield corners, catcher, and third base it may be difficult to justify that many wins--not to mention that two of our starting pitchers will qualify for early social security next year.
.500 is within reach provided they stay healthy and don't have a start like last year.
He had a full trade clause with the Reds because he was a 5/10 (5 years consecutive years with 1 club and 10 years overall in the league) guy which is a universal no trade clause for every player that qualifies with that. By agreeing to go to the Braves he is no longer a 5/10 guy. He can be traded.