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Thread: THURSDAY MINORS FINAL 6/20/19; Big night for Pache

  1. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    I think one thing that happens when teams get to the point where everyone considers them the gold standard for a second is that people have a tendency to start over-exalting every thing they do whether it plays a significant role in their success or not. Or whether it was in fact something that any team would have done in the same situation.

    The new buzz word is using depth and versatility to set up platoon situations. Hardly a new concept, but one that is sexy again because some winning teams are doing it.

    Having a bunch of guys with certain strengths that can deploy by matchups is certainly a nice thing to have. I wish Atlanta would do more of that at least in moderation.

    But at the end of the day, I do not think the Chris Taylors and Kike Hernandez's of the world are the reason the Dodgers are successful.

    I would like to think the Braves see more in Shewmake than that at 21, but it does seem like a pretty weak draft class so maybe that's about all you can do there. I'm not thrilled by Shewmake primarily because his bat showed no real improvement over his time at TAMU. On one hand it was consistent, but the lack of progress calls the upside into question. Maybe a professional workout regimen will add that missing power though.
    Very true. The game is constantly changing and a lot of what was deemed "new thinking" in the past can go the way of the dinosaur in a hurry. Dodgers are a very good franchise, but they also have a very high payroll. That level of payroll will keep Bellinger in Dodger Blue as long he's performing and arbitration on good younger players is not as urgent a consideration as it is in other markets. I have absolutely no problem with Anthopoulos attempting to replicate what the Dodgers are doing, only with a smaller payroll.

    I could have seen several workable draft strategies. Maybe we take a higher ceiling/above slot guy at #21 and go with a couple of college seniors mid-second-day to accommodate that and maintain the third-day strategy on the high-ceiling lottery guys.

  2. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    actually I don't think so...I'm making a distinction between how my thought process works for the very top of the draft versus the rest of the first round
    i mean, come on. there's not that much difference in approach at #4 and #9. different types of players available, yes. but your thought process at that spot is my same thought process 3-5 spots later.
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  3. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    At the risk of seemingly being inconsistent, while I think ceiling should be the main consideration in the first round, I've always thought floor can come into play more at the very top of the draft. The top 4 or 5 players. This is because at that end of the draft all the players have very high ceilings and it is reasonable to look at their floors too in trying to distinguish between them. And that kind of thought process might have tipped the scales toward Vaughn over Bleday and Abrams.

    Obviously I don't have all the information the teams do, but for me the top 2 guys in this year's draft were Rutschman and Abrams.
    basically i'm saying floor comes into play at #9 the same way it does at #3, 4, 5, 6, etc. which is why the Vaughn pick is fine to me, despite Bleday and Abrams probably having more upside.
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

    “I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    i mean, come on. there's not that much difference in approach at #4 and #9. different types of players available, yes. but your thought process at that spot is my same thought process 3-5 spots later.
    I'd say there is a big difference between a top 4 pick and a 9...if you look at the data it shows a very steep future production curve in that part of the draft
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I'd say there is a big difference between a top 4 pick and a 9...if you look at the data it shows a very steep future production curve in that part of the draft
    ugh. i explicitly stated the players available are not the same. i'm saying my approach would be the same.
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    ugh. i explicitly stated the players available are not the same. i'm saying my approach would be the same.
    ok...I would vary my approach for different segments of the draft...anyhow i'm linking below an old study that shows how steep that curve is

    http://baseballanalysts.com/archives..._picks_and.php

    there are more recent studies that basically confirm these results...i'm linking the older study because of the nice graphical representation of what i'm talking about
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    ok...I would vary my approach for different segments of the draft...anyhow i'm linking below an old study that shows how steep that curve is

    http://baseballanalysts.com/archives..._picks_and.php

    there are more recent studies that basically confirm these results...i'm linking the older study because of the nice graphical representation of what i'm talking about
    i've never doubted or argued that the curve isn't steep. i understand that point.
    i just don't understand why that would change my approach of considering floor while also aiming for upside. i'm happy the Braves considered the upside AND the floor of the player they were drafting at #9, which i feel they did. i wouldn't like going plain upside with no consideration of floor. to each his own.
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

    “I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    i've never doubted or argued that the curve isn't steep. i understand that point.
    i just don't understand why that would change my approach of considering floor while also aiming for upside. i'm happy the Braves considered the upside AND the floor of the player they were drafting at #9, which i feel they did. i wouldn't like going plain upside with no consideration of floor. to each his own.
    the reason I gave is guys at the top of the draft have both very high ceilings and high floors...so you are going to get a high ceiling guy regardless

    beyond the very top guys in the first round its a mix of high ceiling/risky downside and limited ceiling/high floor...I don't mean to reduce it to a binary choice like that, but the players will vary along that continuum...it is not like the very top picks where everyone is high ceiling
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    the reason I gave is guys at the top of the draft have both very high ceilings and high floors...so you are going to get a high ceiling guy regardless

    beyond the very top guys in the first round its a mix of high ceiling/risky downside and limited ceiling/high floor...I don't mean to reduce it to a binary choice like that, but the players will vary along that continuum...it is not like the very top picks where everyone is high ceiling
    and i'm saying i'd rather continue to consider both even at #9. i'm not even sure who clearly had a higher ceiling than Langeliers, anyway. if there isn't a clearly higher ceiling and one guy has a much higher floor...pull that trigger.
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

    “I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    and i'm saying i'd rather continue to consider both even at #9. i'm not even sure who clearly had a higher ceiling than Langeliers, anyway. if there isn't a clearly higher ceiling and one guy has a much higher floor...pull that trigger.
    ok...lets put it this way...I would weigh floor significantly more if I was picking in the top 3 or 4...it isn't a question of giving floor zero weight after that but it would be a much lower weight
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    ok...lets put it this way...I would weigh floor significantly more if I was picking in the top 3 or 4...it isn't a question of giving floor zero weight after that but it would be a much lower weight
    aight
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    aight
    btw it was crazy that Bol Bol dropped out of the first round
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    btw it was crazy that Bol Bol dropped out of the first round
    had the ceiling and didn't have the floor...or had the floor and didn't have the ceiling...or has attitude issues, like you.
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

    “I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    had the ceiling and didn't have the floor...or had the floor and didn't have the ceiling...or has attitude issues, like you.
    But the ceiling is the roof.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CyYoung31 View Post
    But the ceiling is the roof.
    sky is the limit
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    Quote Originally Posted by CyYoung31 View Post
    But the ceiling is the roof.
    it's thru it, in some cases i'm sure
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

    “I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg

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    I guess one thing we also need to ask is if Langeliers is already ahead of Contreras - not literally in the minors, but as far as talent level and his track to the majors.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nerfherders View Post
    I guess one thing we also need to ask is if Langeliers is already ahead of Contreras - not literally in the minors, but as far as talent level and his track to the majors.
    Contreras has started to appear on a few Top 100 lists (currently 88 on BA's list). Generally speaking the #9 pick in a draft doesn't make it to the top 100 solely by virtue of his draft position. BA's preseason list had 7 players taken in the 2018 draft. From that perspective it is pretty close between those two. Maybe small edge to Contreras.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 06-21-2019 at 01:56 PM.
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    I think the only guy with huge upside left on the board at #9 (aside from perhaps prep arms) was Jackson Rutledge. That's my own perhaps irrational view based on the most favorable reviews of his stuff. But a guy who maintains high velocity fastball with good movement into late innings, has a plus slider, and two other decent to good offerings while still be relatively undeveloped was a turn on. That's a #1 starter in his best life. But time has also reminded me that this is a high, high risk profile.

    The rest of these guys probably all fall short of that kind of upside.

    I don't see much difference in Langeliers, Manoah, Bishop from an upside/risk perspective.

    Carroll seems like someone who would go late first or second round in a lot of drafts. I don't quite get where that hype came from.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    I think the only guy with huge upside left on the board at #9 (aside from perhaps prep arms) was Jackson Rutledge. That's my own perhaps irrational view based on the most favorable reviews of his stuff. But a guy who maintains high velocity fastball with good movement into late innings, has a plus slider, and two other decent to good offerings while still be relatively undeveloped was a turn on. That's a #1 starter in his best life. But time has also reminded me that this is a high, high risk profile.

    The rest of these guys probably all fall short of that kind of upside.

    I don't see much difference in Langeliers, Manoah, Bishop from an upside/risk perspective.

    Carroll seems like someone who would go late first or second round in a lot of drafts. I don't quite get where that hype came from.
    There were issues on Carroll's size and how much further he would develop physically. I will leave it to others whether that's a fair assessment. I always thought the other thing with Carroll--and I may be stretching it here--is there is some similarity between him and Mickey Moniak in that they were both high school guys with highly-graded hit tools as the centerpiece of their skill set. It hasn't worked out for Moniak up to this point. Moniak, although physically bigger than Carroll, hasn't seen his power develop at all. That said, the Phillies keep pushing him up the chain on schedule.

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