Well, what you think and what Heyman's sources indicate don't align.Originally Posted by Super
Well, what you think and what Heyman's sources indicate don't align.
I neglected to look at the money owed to Kyle Seager and would have some second thoughts about taking him on. Moustakas will probably be a lot cheaper if we are looking for a LHH 3B.
FG just released their FA tracker: https://www.fangraphs.com/tools/free...-tracker?pos=c
Sorting by positions of need for the Braves reveals...
Catcher
Grandal (QO) - 3.6 WAR, 3/45
Ramos - 2.8 WAR, 3/36
Group of 1.0-1.5 WAR guys
cOF
Harper (QO) - 4.9 WAR, 10/330
Pollock (QO) - 3.1 WAR, 4/64
Brantley - 2.6 WAR, 3/45
Cutch - 2.6 WAR, 3/42
Marwin - 1.7 WAR, 3/30
CarGo, Markakis, AJones at 1+ WAR
I don't think we talk about Cutch as a possibility enough. Outside of 2016, he still a consistently good bat who should be adequate in LF. He would be a good choice to move Acuna out of the leadoff slot.
I also don't have a good feel for whether or not a guy with a QO attached will disqualify someone for the Braves.
UNCBlue012 (11-06-2018)
https://www.12up.com/posts/6216008-r...ly-to-be-dealt
They are open for business from what I'm hearing locally and are keenly aware of their shortcomings and Haniger and Diaz are not off limits, via multiple Seattle sources out here.
You want Haniger and you want Paxton and you'd want Diaz if the price is tolerable, but he'll be expensive. Paxton is an injury risk, true enough, but it's never shoulder or elbow. A lot of weird ****. Hit on the forearm with a line drive, obliques and fingers and things. When healthy, he is Bumgarner with better control and a better cutter. In a word, a stone cold ace. Couple more years of control. Interestingly, he played college ball at Kentucky after growing up outside Vancouver (Ladner). He got serious about conditioning two years ago and he's been a bit more durable, but that's the potential problem.
The Mariners would need starter-quality arms, maybe a Wentz-Muller type and one of the frontline guys we don't want to give up. But Paxton is one of those guys who would matter in October.
Haniger would fill the RF gap nicely and for four years. He's a five tool guy, a splendid player in the Yelich mold. He played center about 30 games and acquitted himself well, though he's better suited for a corner. He had a month (July?) where he got big, started over striding and trying to mash everything, with predictable results...much like Acuna, Servais shifted him to leadoff (Dee Gordon was OBPing about .240 and walked nine times all year) and he took off for the last quarter, though. Finished terrific. He's better suited either at 2 or 4-5. He's a 25 HR/40 double guy and he will run if they let him.
Sugar (Diaz) is 2012 Kimbrel, FB/SL, impeccable control, exploding four-seamer, just about unhittable, very few rough patches the last two years.
Remember, these guys won 89 games this year. That's not a bad club, it's just a club that wound up out of the money in a historic year of separation between haves and have nots. They'd have made the NL playoffs n
I know Pythagoras says sub-.500, but you have to understand the nature of their pitching staff. They had three guts-and-guile guys in Leake, LeBlanc and Marco Gonzalez who would have 3-4 very good starts and then the fifth start they'd give up 13 hits and 9 runs in 2 2/3. Which is why they'd want two-three less volatile pitchers and that would be a highly attractive component of dealing with the Braves. They may perceive us as one stop shopping, just as we might be for them.
bravesfanMatt (11-06-2018)
If they rebuild they’d be crazy to keep their most valuable assets, but then again we did keep Freeman. I’d say they would trade him once they started getting some good offers.
This is what I'm thinking as well. When teams leak stuff about rebuilding, I feel like they do the "but we won't trade ____" to soften the initial blowback from fans. Remember all the talk last year about the Marlins keeping Yelich?
I'd be really surprised if they didn't at least listen on Haniger, and we have the farm system and need to meet what they're going to ask for him.
The problem with Seager is the shift. He's a fine third baseman, good power for a smallish guy (think Bregman), but hits literally everything into the teeth of the shift, kinda like McCann. When he tries to go the other way he gets all f--kid up.
First game I saw him in person, he was 4-4. Average exit velo probably 100. Two singles, a double and a dinger that landed two rows in front of me. The least pulled ball was twelve inches off the RF line.
correct. passan apparently doesn't have the same sources, and neither do others tho. logically it makes sense that if they decide to rebuild, haniger would be available. heyman's apparent sources be damned.
"Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly
“I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg
Yeah, if they don't move Haniger they're not serious. And they may have hit their competitive apex last year and didn't get a sniff. They need to start over, painful as that is for them.
Dipoto loves to trade. If they're looking to rebuild/retool then I think everyone will be available. I also think it'll be an attempt at a retool rather than a rebuild. He's old school and I cannot see a 3-5 year rebuild in their future with him at the helm.
Looking at some of their contracts I could see a possible AA special of swapping some contracts with us taking on more money with a win now mindset and them shedding money and getting younger. That park could be a good one for Julio to pitch in and Ender would be much needed in that OF. If they traded Seager, Riley would look good to them.
Haniger would be my preferred target. Seager could be a decent pickup in a contract swap if getting Haniger cost us Riley.
I like that Cutch\Brantley area. Only thing with Brantley is you need quality backup, as he's likely to miss some games and at times can need a platoon mate.
Seattle and Arz firesale makes things REALLY interesting.
Ivermectin Man
With Haniger we are talking about a late bloomer cOF with 4 years of control who is probably projected to produce around 12 wins over those 4 years at a cost of around $30M. That's a rough surplus value in the neighborhood of $90M.
The cost is probably a FV 60 centerpiece ($60M) or a "sure thing" FV 55 guy, plus another 50 ($20M) plus 1-2 more FV 40/45 guys as filler. A pair of 55s may be substituted for the single 60.
The only 60 the Braves have is Pache. Their 55s are Soroka, Riley, Wright, Anderson, and Gohara. Soroka is not going to headline a deal with injury questions. The M's have already given up on Gohara once. That leaves Pache as the headliner, or 2 of Riley/Wright/Anderson (none of whom I would consider "sure thing" 55s).
The 50s are the next tier of pitchers plus Waters and Contreras. If the M's take 2 FV 55s, they won't be getting an additional 50.
So realistic packages for Haniger become...
Pache plus 1 of Touki/Wilson/Wentz plus 1-2 40/45 fillers
2 of Riley/Wright/Anderson plus 1-2 40/45 fillers
jpx7 (11-06-2018)
So, thinking about the Mariners and their desire to rebuild.
They have several contracts they would love to unload: Felix Hernandez, Kyle Seager, probably Mike Leake, but none more so than Robinson Cano where they owe another $120M over 5 years. Supposedly, an exec told Mark Feinsand that the M's would have to attach a lot of talent to move him and even then it might not be enough.
Well, what about a blockbuster with the Braves where the Braves get: Cano (plays 3B some 2B), Haniger, Paxton and Diaz for something like Teheran, Wright, Allard, Wentz and Cruz.
For the M's: they move the unmoveable, gain 3 reasonable arms and a long term 2B prospect. It's not a lot going back but it's the bitter pill necessary.
For the Braves: you pretty much have to write off Cano's last 2 years since it is unlikely that he will be viable then. How well would he play 3B? Would you dare play him at 2B and Albies at short? Paxton could be the LH alter ego to Folty for the next 2 years and cost no more than Teheran. Haniger fixes RF long term at little cost as does Diaz at closer.
The question would be for the M's, do they think they can do better by keeping Cano and going best talent available for the others?
For the Braves it's the long term inflexibility of Cano's contract.
Not saying I think it's likely just a boring day.
Last edited by Horsehide Harry; 11-06-2018 at 02:47 PM.
We know AA is capable of orchestrating the blockbuster: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fox...517%3famp=true
Let’s hope his time with the Dodgers has rid him of his worst impulses.
That was my first thought as well when I read that. Haniger is a very intriguing buy.
JohnAdcox (11-06-2018)
At some point it is just selling.
I'd do a Pache, Wentz/Wilson deal even if it meant giving up another ~50 grade guy for leaving out Touki (assuming that was the guy they wanted of the three). If we could swing a deal while leaving the Soroka/Anderson/Wright/Touki group untouched, I'd be all over that. Especially considering we'd also be keeping Riley.
Yeah, if they make Haniger available, I think we have to make a run at him.
Haniger's the ideal fit of the players the M's have.
Under control for 4 more years, would take alot but he'd fill a huge need and would cost nothing cap wise for now.
Or you know, trade prospects for him. You dont build a deep farm to be #1 in farm rankings every year. Gotta give to get, ya know.
Yes but when a team has money and prospects then why use just one source of capital.
Coppy
JohnAdcox (11-06-2018)
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