DRAFT IN PROGRESS THREAD ... What's past is preamble

[smootness]

Moniak was a top 10 guy on pretty much all the lists I've been looking at over the past 3-4 months.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/colle...k0dbcBMbF0Y.97

[50PoundHead]

Moniak has been a top 10 guy for a several months now at least, not sure why you are comparing him to Anderson really, Moniak didn't come out of nowhere, he just went from a #6/#7 guy to being #1 over the past month.

I agree on Pint, I wanted nothing to do with him because I can't remember a guy who throws 100 anytime in the past 15-20 years that hasn't had arm issues.

I keep hearing about the makeup issues that made Groome drop ( and clearly they are the reason he dropped, along with signability concerns), but does anybody know what they are exactly? I'm curious.

The big difference is that Moniak is a California kid who has been more extensively scouted than Anderson. For good or ill (and it could be either), northern high school kids don't get the exposure that southern high school kids get. Showcases help with that a bit, but there was a bigger body of analysis on Moniak than Anderson going into the 2016 high school season. If Moniak had been there at #3, I would have been all over him. Kid looks like he's got a solid swing and he could develop power as he grows.

[smootness]

I'm not a fan of taking HS arms at that point of the draft. Nolan Jones and Joe Rizzo were a couple options I would have preferred. I also like college pitchers at that point in the draft better than HS pitchers and there were some good ones available. Logan Shore for example was rated higher than Muller by BA.

It will be interesting to track the progress of the three college pitchers the A's took: Puk, Jeffries and Shore with our three. Different approaches.

But Wentz was not rated around 40. We may have taken him there, but he has the talent of a top 15-20 pick. That's how we should evaluate it, not just where he was drafted.

And we'll just agree to disagree on Jones and Rizzo. Wentz and Muller are clearly more talented, IMO. I think those actuarial tables are a good tool, but you get bogged down by them sometimes. You have to just evaluate the players in each draft.

Shore is not someone I was interested in. To me, his ceiling is like a #4 starter. He's never going to strike anybody out.

[auyushu]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/colle...k0dbcBMbF0Y.97

Fair enough, but he's been fast tracking up the lists for a long while now. Not like it's really a comparison to us drafting Anderson there.

[KB21]

I'm not a fan of taking HS arms at that point of the draft. Nolan Jones and Joe Rizzo were a couple options I would have preferred. I also like college pitchers at that point in the draft better than HS pitchers and there were some good ones available. Logan Shore for example was rated higher than Muller by BA.

It will be interesting to track the progress of the three college pitchers the A's took: Puk, Jeffries and Shore with our three. Different approaches.

I'd much rather take high school arms there than college arms who have already bumped their ceiling.

[50PoundHead]

So who do we take at #80 and #109

Austin Hayes
Heath Quinn
Cole Stobbe

if you want possible home run..
Kyle Funkhouser

then another name I forgot about..
Nick Banks

College senior, so I wonder what he signs for.

Gio Brusa is a college senior OF who the Braves drafted out of high school (Cardinals drafted him last year) with some power (and contact issues) who might be an interesting pick.

[auyushu]

The big difference is that Moniak is a California kid who has been more extensively scouted than Anderson. For good or ill (and it could be either), northern high school kids don't get the exposure that southern high school kids get.

I agree there, northern players have much more potential upside to be steals because of that (see Trout) simply because of lack of scouting.

[striker42]

Not to start an irrelevant debate, but when you think of the great Braves' rotation of the 1990s, people tend to forget that Smoltz, Glavine, Avery, and (to some extent) Maddux were all superlative athletes.

Here's what David Rawnsey (one of the draft analysts over at Perfect Game whose opinion I respect) said about Anderson in the chat (free so not premium content): Good decision by the Braves. You kept hearing about the Braves wanting to try to slide Anderson to 40th. At the end of the day, you pick the guy you want first and adjust later. Anderson is a polished 3-pitch guy with plus stuff. Lots to like there. But few would have thought Anderson would be picked before Riley Pint and Jason Groome a few months ago.

Few would have picked Anderson over Pint and Groome yesterday.

Anderson was a huge reach. We took a guy at 3 we were hoping might drop to 40.

[auyushu]

So who do we take at #80 and #109

Heath Quinn at 80 would be my choice for sure. High risk/reward type of bat we could use.

Banks would be interesting at 109, solid buy low candidate. Same for Funkhouser really, but those arm speed issues would scare me away.

[Deester11]

I agree there, northern players have much more potential upside to be steals because of that (see Trout) simply because of lack of scouting.

As was the case for Soroka. Look, the Braves scouts based off just last year have my vote of confidence. Look at the talent they brought in and the potential of the first 10 picks are better than we've had in a long time. I hated the thought of Ian Anderson and praying for someone to fall, but Coppy has magic tricks out his behind to get three pitchers who collectively look like 3 of the top 25-30 talents in the draft. What's not to like? Say it's cheap or whatever, but I think they absolutely had a good opening day. Look at last years draft alone:

Atlanta Braves 2015 Draft Selections
A listing of the Atlanta Braves's 2015 draft picks
Name Pos B/T Ht Wt DOB Round Pick # Signed
Kolby Allard LHP L / L 6' 1" 180 08/13/1997 1 14 07/13/2015
Mike Soroka RHP R / R 6' 4" 195 08/04/1997 1 28 07/07/2015
Austin Riley 3B R / R 6' 3" 220 04/02/1997 CBA 41 06/16/2015
Lucas Herbert C R / R 6' 0" 200 11/28/1996 2 54 06/15/2015
A.J. Minter LHP L / L 6' 0" 205 09/02/1993 CBB 75 06/14/2015
Anthony Guardado RHP R / R 6' 1" 185 11/14/1997 3 89 07/02/2015
Josh Graham RHP R / R 6' 1" 215 10/14/1993 4 120 06/22/2015
Ryan Clark RHP R / R 6' 5" 220 12/09/1993 5 150 06/22/2015
Matt Withrow RHP R / R 6' 5" 235 09/23/1993 6 180 06/22/2015
Patrick Weigel RHP R / R 6' 6" 220 07/08/1994 7 210 06/22/2015
Ryan Lawlor LHP R / L 6' 1" 185 01/08/1994 8 240 06/22/2015
Taylor Lewis RHP R / R 6' 1" 170 10/04/1993 9 270 07/02/2015
Stephen Moore RHP R / R 6' 2" 200 04/28/1992 10 300 06/22/2015
Grayson Jones RHP R / R 6' 2" 220 08/22/1994 11 330 06/22/2015
Justin Ellison CF L / L 6' 2" 175 02/06/1995 12 360 06/12/2015
Chase Johnson-Mullins

[rawwr]

Few would have picked Anderson over Pint and Groome yesterday.

Anderson was a huge reach. We took a guy at 3 we were hoping might drop to 40.

I'm going to need a source that we were hoping he would drop to 40.

Furthermore, who would you have drafted at 3/40? I don't see a combination I'd rather have than Anderson/Wentz.

[sturg33]

Here's what I'm sure of...

No matter what the Braves did yesterday, it would have been staunchly defended by the usual suspects

[SidSlid92]

Best available Day 2 according to Scout.

http://www.scout.com/mlb/scouting/st...vailable-day-2

[smootness]

Fair enough, but he's been fast tracking up the lists for a long while now. Not like it's really a comparison to us drafting Anderson there.

The reason it's used is because the only thing that changed for Moniak was time. If the draft had been held in March, people would have considered it crazy to draft Moniak at the top of the draft. It's not like he's a better player now than he was in March. And the same could have been true for Anderson. If the draft was held in August, it may be that Anderson would have jumped all the way up to consensus top-5. The point is, these rankings are constantly fluctuating.

[smootness]

Few would have picked Anderson over Pint and Groome yesterday.

Anderson was a huge reach. We took a guy at 3 we were hoping might drop to 40.

We were hoping he might drop to 40 due to signability issues, not because teams viewed him as a 40ish player. Come on, you know that.

The bottom line is, you and others may see Anderson as a 'reach' at 3. That's fine. The Braves clearly didn't, and they took the guy they wanted. It's as simple as that. We'll just have to wait to see who was right.

[smootness]

Here's what I'm sure of...

No matter what the Braves did yesterday, it would have been staunchly defended by the usual suspects

...and similarly killed by the usual suspects.

[50PoundHead]

Few would have picked Anderson over Pint and Groome yesterday.

Anderson was a huge reach. We took a guy at 3 we were hoping might drop to 40.

But you need to think of this as your GPA. Would you rather have three 3.5s or a 4.0 and two 3.0s? 3.5 beats 3.33. Your concept of reach in the baseball draft borders on inanity. It's not like they took a guy in the 200s on BA's rankings.

[auyushu]

As was the case for Soroka. Look, the Braves scouts based off just last year have my vote of confidence. Look at the talent they brought in and the potential of the first 10 picks are better than we've had in a long time.

I actually am fine with our first 4 picks yesterday, as long as we got top tier talent at 40/44 I was fine with Anderson, and we did. But we have to start being more balanced with our drafts, or our offense is going to suck forever.

I think you are reaching a bit with the top ten a bit there from last year though. Allard and Soroka are no doubt studs, and I like Minter a good deal, but outside of Weigel being a nice surprise I'm not seeing anyone else there blowing the doors off (though need to see more of Guardado for sure, he could be a steal). It was a solid draft (and compared to the crap show that was the Wren/DeMacio drafts it certainly looks amazing), but it's not something that's going to make me say our guys know better than all the other team's front offices and are unquestionable.

Riley is actually looking like every bit as much of reach as people were calling the FO out for last year at this point.

[striker42]

I'm going to need a source that we were hoping he would drop to 40.

Furthermore, who would you have drafted at 3/40? I don't see a combination I'd rather have than Anderson/Wentz.

Read the post I was quoting.

I would have taken Lewis 3rd but if we had to pick a pitcher I'd have gone with Puk. Higher upside, lower risk, ready sooner, and a lefty.

I'd probably have gone Muller at 40 and then under slotted 44 with a college senior.

[50PoundHead]

Read the post I was quoting.

I would have taken Lewis 3rd but if we had to pick a pitcher I'd have gone with Puk. Higher upside, lower risk, ready sooner, and a lefty.

I'd probably have gone Muller at 40 and then under slotted 44 with a college senior.

Which one? I don't believe one has been picked yet, so who would be reaching under that scenario?