I'll just put it out there that, as of now, I'm pretty certain that Republicans will get absolutely steam-rolled in 2018. And rightfully so. But I think it has more to do with total ineptitude and an inability to get any meaningful legislation, of any variety, pushed through than it does with Trump.
And I think Trump will ultimately madly strafe to the center in 2020, if he even chooses to run again.
Yeah - that's the pattern.Originally Posted by Hawk
And this time, things will surely change
It will be tough for the Dems to steamroll midterms.
They have too many battleground and lean blue states in Senate to defend. And with gerrymandering it’s going to be some task to take the house back. Hopefully SCOTUS rules on gerrymandering soon.
Cruz’s seat in Texas might look more possible now than it did a year ago. McCaskill will have to defend a state getting more Red. Plus we also have North Dakota to defend. Montana, Indiana, Florida, Michigan, West Virginia are all glong to be tough to defend. All of those had the fortune of getting the Obama boost in 2012.
I dont see the Dems being able to get Corker or Hatch’s seat. AZ and NV could be in play but eh.
Forever Fredi
2020 senate races could be interesting.
Georgia with the right candidate and shifting demographics could finally be in play.
Colorado could go blue again.
Iowa if they can find someone sensible to run against Ernst.
Maybe McConnell finally gets defeated.
Montana could be another Wild Card if Bullock runs.
North Carolina could be taken back.
West Virginia as well if they’re dissatisfied with Trump
Cornyn’s seat could also be in play.
Forever Fredi
Short answer, when I'd really prefer to give a long one: yeah. Run and lose, if necessary, on a genuine left platform rather than tepid Third Way bull****. That's my personal take, albeit after years of wrangling with my own tendency to compromise.
Is a genuine left platform just socialism?
Rs and Trump will get trounced in 2018, deservedly so.
Ehh. I don't think many people will have changed their minds. The Trump platform hasn't changed much, and unlike most Rs, he's actually tried to implement the things he ran on. The biggest factor will be turnout (of course), and I think the biggest driver of that on the right will be how much people believe the R candidates. Fence sitting like Gillespie tried to do will certainly fail.
Even if he does run, I think he will face a stiff primary and may not win the the nod. Time we get there assuming we do, only people that will vote for him is the 30% that would let him crap on their porch.
Last edited by VirginiaBrave; 11-09-2017 at 01:45 AM.
As a celebrating Dem, I can promise you this. Trump will not win re-election. We were as a group complacent. We saw him as the joke he was and is, but we did not show up. That won't happen again.
Trump looks down and out to me, with very little skill to revive his presidency. But if he's still around in 2020, I again hope he's the nominee.
FFF - BB, BB, 2B, HR, 2B, HR, 1B, BB, BB, 1B, BB, BB, HR
I know the executive and legislative branches are technically separate. But it seems to me that presidential leadership plays a large role in determining how productive or unproductive a Congress is. And it has played a yuge role so far this year.
Last edited by nsacpi; 11-09-2017 at 08:13 AM.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Not really sure where to put this, but I thought it was worth sharing. John Oliver nails all the problems with state tax incentives for job growth.
jpx7 (11-10-2017)
I’ll take the contrarian position. If the economy is performing in 2020 the way it’s performing now (and assuming there hasn’t been a scandal that has already taken him out) I think Trump wins easily. Incumbents are tough to beat. Incumbents in a strong economy? Good luck.
And for all the grumping about his Twitter antics, he has a platform with 40+ million followers where he is able to get out his message his way. I think there is real value to that and serves as an additional barrier to any challenger.
That being said, I never thought he had a chance until about 10:30 ET on election night 2016, so what the hell do I know...
Brian KlaasVerified account @brianklaas 21h21 hours ago
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President Xi has mastered the playbook of Trump diplomacy: flatter the ego of a narcissist. He’ll back off and you can chip away at US power.
painfully obvious to everyone except trump
"Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly
“I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg
if it were just getting out his "message" it wouldn't be so dumb. but he uses it to rant and rave like a lunatic, call out every single person who says something even a little unflattering, and whines about the "fake news media" constantly. that's not a message, that's a high school tempter tantrum.
"Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly
“I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg
I feel like the R party of today is more similar to a fractured multi party governing coalitions of Europe than it is to a typical American party. We have this dynamic of R leaders in Congress who aren't likely to lose their jobs regardless of how well they cooperate with anyone. These guys campaigned and won on the sort of milquetoast center-right platform that has defined the R party outside of the Tea Party and Trump insurrections, and it's far more comfortable for them to sit the fence and ride out the storm than it is to try to actually achieve anything of substance.
Sure they oppose illegal immigration on the campaign trail, but don't want to do anything tangible to prevent it. Just amnesty the illegals that are here and look at the post amnesty stats that show there isn't much of a problem.
They oppose expanded entitlements, but it would be so cruel to actually roll any of them back. We can't do that.
Of course they want to create better paying jobs, but it would crazy to roll back the globalism that sucked those jobs out of the country. Globalism is so good for all of the peons, they just aren't smart enough to know it.
The way Obama handled the War on Terror was just awful. They need to do the exact same thing, but rename a couple of operations, replace a general or two, and call it a revolutionary strategy.
Now to be fair, I have voted for these guys and will probably continue to do so if the Trump policy standard falls to the wayside, simply because it's them or the Ds. But they are blaming Trump for all of their problems when in reality they should be blaming all of their problems for Trump. I can't stand Obama, Pelosi, Reid, or their policies, but I give them credit for having the balls to push their agenda. McConnell and Ryan have proven too weak to do the same.
And despite the periodic stupid that comes from the Twitter feed, it gives him a chance to speak in his own words without hostile media twisting or editorializing it. That's priceless.
Both parties are screwed-up. Yeah I know - news flash! That said, Dems have plenty of reason to go out and vote and many Rs (like myself) plenty of reasons not to go out and vote for a party that controls the WH and Congress and do nothing but look like utter buffoons with no real intention to do anything.
It's a tough decision to make. I typically begin each election cycle with the assumption that I will vote, and then decide who gets that vote primarily on policy. I would rather vote for a guy might further my agenda than either not vote or vote for someone who will damage my agenda. I understand the decision to hold the politicians accountable, I just don't think it is something we can afford to do in a general election. I save that for the primaries.
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