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Thread: Fangraphs Top 100 Prospects

  1. #181
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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    Lewis' upside is probably pretty similar to Anderson's in terms of value. I would argue that Lewis' upside is about .270 with 35 HR in the majors offensively while playing pretty good defense. That's certainly a really valuable player, but so is a legit #2 starter. And I think the Braves determined that they think Anderson has a better chance of hitting that upside than Lewis does of hitting his.
    I agree with your assessment of Lewis's upside (though I see him as able to hit in the .280ish range if he really clicks), but your description of his upside fits the bill of a 5+ WAR OF, which is much higher than a #2 starter. And I'm certain the Braves did determine that, or else I hope they did anyway. Time will tell if they are right. I certainly hope they are.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    I think it is fair to say that the analysis suggests #2 starter is easily within reach for him, which is actually quite a lot of upside.

    If he's pitching at 94 with movement deep into games, and can locate two other above average pitches he's going to be very good.
    I think that is his absolute pie in the sky ceiling. If absolutely everything progresses like we hope then he's a number 2. However, guys almost never progress exactly as hoped. It's far more likely that some parts of his game don't develop as well as others. It might be that his slurvy breaking ball never tightens up (there are very few successful slurvy breaking balls in the majors). It might be his changeup never becomes anything more than a below average offering. His command may not progress to major league quality. It could be any number of things.

    While I could see him adding some velocity to his fastball and ending up sitting at 94, I don't necessarily see that as likely. I actually see it as more likely that if he reaches the majors and settles in, his fastball will probably end up sitting in the low-90's. You see a lot of young pitchers who throw harder in the minors but learn that in the majors being able to put the ball where you want it is often better than throwing harder with worse control. So you have guys that threw 94-95 in the minors sitting at 92-93 in the majors. I would say that's the most likely course of development for him.

    So yes, if everything about his development is absolutely perfect, he could be a number 2. I think a reasonable ceiling is as a number 3.

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    Quote Originally Posted by auyushu View Post
    I agree with your assessment of Lewis's upside (though I see him as able to hit in the .280ish range if he really clicks), but your description of his upside fits the bill of a 5+ WAR OF, which is much higher than a #2 starter. And I'm certain the Braves did determine that, or else I hope they did anyway. Time will tell if they are right. I certainly hope they are.
    It depends a lot on his BB rate and OBP. If it's only middling, like .325ish, and his defense is in the 0.5 dWAR range or so (that's basically what I mean by pretty good), then that's really about a 4 WAR player. Which lines up with a #2 SP.

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    Quote Originally Posted by striker42 View Post
    I think that is his absolute pie in the sky ceiling. If absolutely everything progresses like we hope then he's a number 2. However, guys almost never progress exactly as hoped. It's far more likely that some parts of his game don't develop as well as others. It might be that his slurvy breaking ball never tightens up (there are very few successful slurvy breaking balls in the majors). It might be his changeup never becomes anything more than a below average offering. His command may not progress to major league quality. It could be any number of things.

    While I could see him adding some velocity to his fastball and ending up sitting at 94, I don't necessarily see that as likely. I actually see it as more likely that if he reaches the majors and settles in, his fastball will probably end up sitting in the low-90's. You see a lot of young pitchers who throw harder in the minors but learn that in the majors being able to put the ball where you want it is often better than throwing harder with worse control. So you have guys that threw 94-95 in the minors sitting at 92-93 in the majors. I would say that's the most likely course of development for him.

    So yes, if everything about his development is absolutely perfect, he could be a number 2. I think a reasonable ceiling is as a number 3.
    It's very unlikely everything progresses exactly as hoped for Lewis or any other draftee as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    It's very unlikely everything progresses exactly as hoped for Lewis or any other draftee as well.
    Absolutely true. If everything progresses exactly as hoped with Lewis you're looking at a perennial all star who hits .310 with 35+ HRs, walks a ton, and plays solid center field defense. That's probably not a reasonable ceiling though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by striker42 View Post
    Absolutely true. If everything progresses exactly as hoped with Lewis you're looking at a perennial all star who hits .310 with 35+ HRs, walks a ton, and plays solid center field defense. That's probably not a reasonable ceiling though.
    That's not his ceiling at all, IMO. If we're capping Anderson's absolute ceiling at a #2 SP, then you have to cap Lewis' ceiling as a guy who hits a good bit under .310. There's nobody who thinks he's capable of that. Otherwise, just slap an ace ceiling on Anderson because there is about the same likelihood for both in those projections. In fact, I think there's actually a better chance Anderson becomes an ace than Lewis gets to that level because it's been proven that pitchers don't have to have otherworldly stuff to become aces. Hitters do have to have pretty innate bat/eye skill to hit .310.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    That's not his ceiling at all, IMO. If we're capping Anderson's absolute ceiling at a #2 SP, then you have to cap Lewis' ceiling as a guy who hits a good bit under .310. There's nobody who thinks he's capable of that. Otherwise, just slap an ace ceiling on Anderson because there is about the same likelihood for both in those projections. In fact, I think there's actually a better chance Anderson becomes an ace than Lewis gets to that level because it's been proven that pitchers don't have to have otherworldly stuff to become aces. Hitters do have to have pretty innate bat/eye skill to hit .310.
    Agreed. I don't think there is any real chance a guy with contact issues in a mediocre college conference has the hit tool to post a .310 BA. Maybe his career year, like Dye's 2006, could peak over .300, but no way could anyone project him to sustain anywhere near that level of BA.

    It is far more likely he hits 30+ HRs than posts a BA over .300...just like Dye.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Agreed. I don't think there is any real chance a guy with contact issues in a mediocre college conference has the hit tool to post a .310 BA. Maybe his career year, like Dye's 2006, could peak over .300, but no way could anyone project him to sustain anywhere near that level of BA.

    It is far more likely he hits 30+ HRs than posts a BA over .300...just like Dye.
    I don't think the .310 is likely either. It's what he could do if everything progresses perfectly. Of course that almost never happens. His realistic ceiling is much more likely to be the .280 hitter we're talking about. Just like Anderson's realistic ceiling is probably a number 3 starter. It's highly doubtful everything progresses perfectly and he becomes a solid number 2 starter.

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    Quote Originally Posted by striker42 View Post
    I don't think the .310 is likely either. It's what he could do if everything progresses perfectly. Of course that almost never happens. His realistic ceiling is much more likely to be the .280 hitter we're talking about. Just like Anderson's realistic ceiling is probably a number 3 starter. It's highly doubtful everything progresses perfectly and he becomes a solid number 2 starter.
    The mistake you're making is that if everything progresses perfectly the way you're assessing Lewis, then Anderson isn't a #2; he's a bona fide stud ace.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    The mistake you're making is that if everything progresses perfectly the way you're assessing Lewis, then Anderson isn't a #2; he's a bona fide stud ace.
    I think this is where the disagreement is. With everything progressing perfectly I think Anderson still has the ceiling of a number 2. I think something abnormal would have to happen (unexpected velocity jump, a secondary pitch jumping to plus-plus, etc) for him to become a bona fide stud ace. I think if everything progresses perfectly, I see him as a Jeff Samardzija type pitcher. However, I think a more reasonable comp is Trevor Bauer.

    I'm also really high on Lewis. So that goes into it as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by striker42 View Post
    I think this is where the disagreement is. With everything progressing perfectly I think Anderson still has the ceiling of a number 2. I think something abnormal would have to happen (unexpected velocity jump, a secondary pitch jumping to plus-plus, etc) for him to become a bona fide stud ace. I think if everything progresses perfectly, I see him as a Jeff Samardzija type pitcher. However, I think a more reasonable comp is Trevor Bauer.

    I'm also really high on Lewis. So that goes into it as well.
    I would argue that a jump by Anderson in velocity or secondary stuff is far more likely than a jump by Lewis in contact skills, especially given their ages.

    That's my point. You seem to be including 'developing great contact skills in his 20s' as Lewis progressing perfectly but aren't including things like a tick up in velocity, refinement of secondary pitches, or developing great command in Anderson progressing perfectly.

    I think the general consensus is that Anderson's realistic ceiling is pretty comparable to Lewis'.
    Last edited by smootness; 03-16-2017 at 05:55 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    It depends a lot on his BB rate and OBP. If it's only middling, like .325ish, and his defense is in the 0.5 dWAR range or so (that's basically what I mean by pretty good), then that's really about a 4 WAR player. Which lines up with a #2 SP.
    Lewis had excellent walk rates his last two years at Mercer, and had a 12% walk rate before injury with the Mariners, the chances of him posting a .325ish OBP if he's hitting .270+ with 30+ HRs is pretty damn small. Much more likely he's posting a .350+ OBP. And that's just a solid projection, his true upside would be the numbers he put up in his brief minors stint, a .285+ish avg, .380ish OBP, .900 OPS beast with decent defense.

    And 4 WAR pitchers are more low to mid-level #1 starters (ERAs in the 3.30 or less range), not #2 starters.

    I don't think Anderson is chopped liver or anything, but there is a reason Lewis is rated higher in pretty much every persons ranking by a decent amount.

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    Quote Originally Posted by auyushu View Post
    Lewis had excellent walk rates his last two years at Mercer, and had a 12% walk rate before injury with the Mariners, the chances of him posting a .325ish OBP if he's hitting .270+ with 30+ HRs is pretty damn small. Much more likely he's posting a .350+ OBP. And that's just a solid projection, his true upside would be the numbers he put up in his brief minors stint, a .285+ish avg, .380ish OBP, .900 OPS beast with decent defense.

    And 4 WAR pitchers are more low to mid-level #1 starters (ERAs in the 3.30 or less range), not #2 starters.

    I don't think Anderson is chopped liver or anything, but there is a reason Lewis is rated higher in pretty much every persons ranking by a decent amount.
    He had an excellent walk rate his last one year at Mercer, and I can't put a ton of stock into that or his walk rate in low A as a college player. That will almost certainly drop. My guess is that he's more of a 6-7% BB rate guy in MLB.

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    Quote Originally Posted by auyushu View Post
    Lewis had excellent walk rates his last two years at Mercer, and had a 12% walk rate before injury with the Mariners, the chances of him posting a .325ish OBP if he's hitting .270+ with 30+ HRs is pretty damn small. Much more likely he's posting a .350+ OBP. And that's just a solid projection, his true upside would be the numbers he put up in his brief minors stint, a .285+ish avg, .380ish OBP, .900 OPS beast with decent defense.

    And 4 WAR pitchers are more low to mid-level #1 starters (ERAs in the 3.30 or less range), not #2 starters.

    I don't think Anderson is chopped liver or anything, but there is a reason Lewis is rated higher in pretty much every persons ranking by a decent amount.

    I'm sure there was a reason why Lewis was considered likely to go in the top 3 by media and went #11 overall.

    It would be odd to criticize the value the Braves got at #3 by saying they should have taken the #11 pick at that spot.

    I suspect that the upside that some in this thread want to see in Lewis would have resulted in his going higher if MLB teams had seen it. He was the third OF taken and the fourth college position player, so a lot of teams had other thoughts.

    But I like him just fine and would have been ok if the Braves had taken him. I'd have been upset with Corey Ray, I think.

    Also some had Anderson as one of the top three high school arms and considering there were questions about Pint as a starter and Groome's makeup it starts to make a little more sense.
    Last edited by Southcack77; 03-16-2017 at 08:20 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    He had an excellent walk rate his last one year at Mercer, and I can't put a ton of stock into that or his walk rate in low A as a college player. That will almost certainly drop. My guess is that he's more of a 6-7% BB rate guy in MLB.
    There is no reason to say it will certainly drop, you are going on absolutely nothing there but your own gut opinion with nothing to back it up really. Guys who can jack 30+ HRs have a much easier time having good walk rates if anything, no reason to think if he's patient now that it's going to change as he moves up to that extreme. Very few of the 30+ HR hitters in baseball have sub 7% walk rates, and most of those typically have higher batting averages.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    I'm sure there was a reason why Lewis was considered likely to go in the top 3 by media and went #11 overall.

    It would be odd to criticize the value the Braves got at #3 by saying they should have taken the #11 pick at that spot.

    I suspect that the upside that some in this thread want to see in Lewis would have resulted in his going higher if MLB teams had seen it. He was the third OF taken and the fourth college position player, so a lot of teams had other thoughts.
    Clearly there was a reason, and most likely that had to do with concerns about his contact skills and the conference he played in. But acting like we shouldn't criticize because teams passed on him is just flat out silly. The best player in baseball wasn't even drafted in the top 20 picks the year he came out.

    And Anderson was widely considered to be drafted in the 12-18 type range at the time of the draft, so we would have been overreaching regardless.

    Personally I wanted Groome first, followed by Lewis. Time will tell if we were right to pass on both.

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