jpx7 (03-29-2017)
jpx7 (03-29-2017)
I think Dickey would be my call for the bust, BUT Garcia could be the biggest bust/boom guy. Garcia could be hurt and horrible, our could bring us a nice haul at the deadline. For our luck he will do great and get hurt exactly one week before the deadline. Cause that's the way we roll....
aaaaaand now #29 in projected BP WAR with 1.8.
Hopefully The Genius has a projection system that's both more accurate and more optimistic than the ones publicly available.
I feel bad wanting us to be good but lose enough games for Coppy to deal. What if Garcia is doing great but we are 500 at the deadline? I don't think he'll move Garcia if we are in the race in year one of a new stadium.
Even if the old guys all do well we could move on from them and potentially be better with Wisler, Blair, Newcombe and Fried. I'm not saying we would be better off, but it's possible.
I feel like Jaime Garcia will turn out ok, but I guessed Garcia might end up in Atlanta long before it happened so I might have some "I want to be proven sooo right" bias going here.
I do hope that Atlanta has the sense to trade any of those guys if they have the opportunity.
I don't have a ton of hope invested in Colon or Dickey.
I think this is what is going to happen. I think the Braves will be a mirror of last year. have a very good 1st half (above .500). Garcia and Folty will be the surprise recipients of that success (Teheran/Folty/Garcia will all be #2 type starters) but Coppy will pull the trigger with Garcia (get better than we expect in return) and then Atlanta will start to struggle.
Wisler then Blair will struggle. Newcomb will do OK but not great. Kemp, Nick, Adonis, Flowers will have good 1st half but slip in 2nd half and the season will end with a dud.
You guys know a different Coppy than I do. IF we are 500 I don't see him trading Garcia if Garcia is doing well. I think they are going to try and be good this year. I think we shouldn't. I hope that Fried and Newcombe will be pounding the door down. Maybe even one of Wisler or Blair will look good.
IMO a 500 team at the deadline will look to add, not trade off. And probably it's a big mistake.
jpx7 (03-29-2017)
The challenge is we have never seen Coppy in that position. What to do if the following happens:
- Braves are at or slightly above .500
- Teheran & Folty pitching great (~3.2ERA, 1.2WHIP, etc)
- Garcia pitching great (~3.2ERA, 1.2WHIP, etc)
- Colon and Dickey pitching adaquate but not good enough for anyone to want them
- Fried is pitching lights out in AA (~2.6ERA, 12K/9, good poise)
- Newcomb pitching to expectations in AAA (~3ERA, 12K/9, 3+BB/9)
- Wisler and Blair pitching well enough in AAA (~3.2ERA, good % of quality starts)
What do you do? What does Coppy do?
I see 3 options
1) Sell high on Garcia, RP - Dickey, bring up at least 2 of the young guys. (my preference)
2) Keep Garcia, RP - Dickey, bring up 1 young guy (push to make playoffs)
3) Keep Garcia, RP - Dickey and Colon, bring up 2 young guys
Here is hoping enough good stuff happens this year to stimulate the discussion!!!
Two of my on-going thoughts...
1) When a injury prone player does well, sell fast
2) When a high demand player has a replacement, sell fast (if good deal)
I predict - Garcia and Viz both fit those criteria. Garcia with Fried / Newcomb. Viz with Minter.