Braves positional breakdown

[thethe]

There are a lot of jokes here... I will be back for this. Just hope some will be left for when I have more time.

My typing game is strong on the phone!

[Enscheff]

I think the numbers for Teheran, Freeman and Ender are all at least a full win too low.

Those 3 guys coupled with Albies promotion is precisely why I project the Braves to win 75-78 games rather than FG's projection of 73 wins.

I think one of the SPs brought in will completely implode, so I think the overall projection for the rotation is pretty spot on.

[thethe]

Those 3 guys coupled with Albies promotion is precisely why I project the Braves to win 75-78 games rather than FG's projection of 73 wins.

I think one of the SPs brought in will completely implode, so I think the overall projection for the rotation is pretty spot on.

Implode means what? That the 1 spot in the roaring produces -1 war? Less?

[Enscheff]

Implode means what? That the 1 spot in the roaring produces -1 war? Less?

I would say implode means they produce close to 0 WAR and are replaced by Fried, Newcomb or Wisler.

Even the Braves FO isn't stupid enough to let a pitcher accumulate -1 WAR...I hope.

[thethe]

I would say implode means they produce close to 0 WAR and are replaced by Fried, Newcomb or Wisler.

Even the Braves FO isn't stupid enough to let a pitcher accumulate -1 WAR...I hope.

If you were to take bets on it which of the three do you think falls flat? I do agree it's safe to assume 1 of the three will btw.

[Enscheff]

If you were to take bets on it which of the three do you think falls flat? I do agree it's safe to assume 1 of the three will btw.

20% Colon
30% Dickey
50% Garcia

But Garcia is the best bet of that trio to post a 3+ WAR season, so that makes up for his bust potential a bit.

[nsacpi]

Really? I don't think those guys have the high end potential that folty has...maybe garcia.

we can come back at year end and see which one departed the most from predicted value

[nsacpi]

Implode means what? That the 1 spot in the roaring produces -1 war? Less?

I nominate colon for biggest implosion

[nsacpi]

I would say implode means they produce close to 0 WAR and are replaced by Fried, Newcomb or Wisler.

Even the Braves FO isn't stupid enough to let a pitcher accumulate -1 WAR...I hope.

they let Aybar accumulate worse...thats why these veteran guys are in some ways more risky...they are given more rope

[msstate7]

I would say implode means they produce close to 0 WAR and are replaced by Fried, Newcomb or Wisler.

Even the Braves FO isn't stupid enough to let a pitcher accumulate -1 WAR...I hope.

Why is the braves' FO so stupid now?

[TheBravos]

I think Dickey would be my call for the bust, BUT Garcia could be the biggest bust/boom guy. Garcia could be hurt and horrible, our could bring us a nice haul at the deadline. For our luck he will do great and get hurt exactly one week before the deadline. Cause that's the way we roll....

[Enscheff]

aaaaaand now #29 in projected BP WAR with 1.8.

Hopefully The Genius has a projection system that's both more accurate and more optimistic than the ones publicly available.

[Russ2dollas]

I think Dickey would be my call for the bust, BUT Garcia could be the biggest bust/boom guy. Garcia could be hurt and horrible, our could bring us a nice haul at the deadline. For our luck he will do great and get hurt exactly one week before the deadline. Cause that's the way we roll....

I feel bad wanting us to be good but lose enough games for Coppy to deal. What if Garcia is doing great but we are 500 at the deadline? I don't think he'll move Garcia if we are in the race in year one of a new stadium.

Even if the old guys all do well we could move on from them and potentially be better with Wisler, Blair, Newcombe and Fried. I'm not saying we would be better off, but it's possible.

[TheBravos]

I feel bad wanting us to be good but lose enough games for Coppy to deal. What if Garcia is doing great but we are 500 at the deadline? I don't think he'll move Garcia if we are in the race in year one of a new stadium.

Even if the old guys all do well we could move on from them and potentially be better with Wisler, Blair, Newcombe and Fried. I'm not saying we would be better off, but it's possible.

Agreed...trade the old guys at the deadline and get the young guys experience IF they have earned the call up.

[Southcack77]

I think Dickey would be my call for the bust, BUT Garcia could be the biggest bust/boom guy. Garcia could be hurt and horrible, our could bring us a nice haul at the deadline. For our luck he will do great and get hurt exactly one week before the deadline. Cause that's the way we roll....

I feel like Jaime Garcia will turn out ok, but I guessed Garcia might end up in Atlanta long before it happened so I might have some "I want to be proven sooo right" bias going here.

I do hope that Atlanta has the sense to trade any of those guys if they have the opportunity.

I don't have a ton of hope invested in Colon or Dickey.

[bravesguy]

What if Garcia is doing great but we are 500 at the deadline? I don't think he'll move Garcia if we are in the race in year one of a new stadium.

I think this is what is going to happen. I think the Braves will be a mirror of last year. have a very good 1st half (above .500). Garcia and Folty will be the surprise recipients of that success (Teheran/Folty/Garcia will all be #2 type starters) but Coppy will pull the trigger with Garcia (get better than we expect in return) and then Atlanta will start to struggle.

Wisler then Blair will struggle. Newcomb will do OK but not great. Kemp, Nick, Adonis, Flowers will have good 1st half but slip in 2nd half and the season will end with a dud.

[Horsehide Harry]

I think this is what is going to happen. I think the Braves will be a mirror of last year. have a very good 1st half (above .500). Garcia and Folty will be the surprise recipients of that success (Teheran/Folty/Garcia will all be #2 type starters) but Coppy will pull the trigger with Garcia (get better than we expect in return) and then Atlanta will start to struggle.

Wisler then Blair will struggle. Newcomb will do OK but not great. Kemp, Nick, Adonis, Flowers will have good 1st half but slip in 2nd half and the season will end with a dud.

I think Atlanta will be .500 or worse every month until the All-Star break, the old guys will break down, then the second half will depend on the young guys to build excitement leading into 2018.

[Russ2dollas]

I think this is what is going to happen. I think the Braves will be a mirror of last year. have a very good 1st half (above .500). Garcia and Folty will be the surprise recipients of that success (Teheran/Folty/Garcia will all be #2 type starters) but Coppy will pull the trigger with Garcia (get better than we expect in return) and then Atlanta will start to struggle.

Wisler then Blair will struggle. Newcomb will do OK but not great. Kemp, Nick, Adonis, Flowers will have good 1st half but slip in 2nd half and the season will end with a dud.

You guys know a different Coppy than I do. IF we are 500 I don't see him trading Garcia if Garcia is doing well. I think they are going to try and be good this year. I think we shouldn't. I hope that Fried and Newcombe will be pounding the door down. Maybe even one of Wisler or Blair will look good.

IMO a 500 team at the deadline will look to add, not trade off. And probably it's a big mistake.

[bravesguy]

You guys know a different Coppy than I do. IF we are 500 I don't see him trading Garcia if Garcia is doing well. I think they are going to try and be good this year. I think we shouldn't. I hope that Fried and Newcombe will be pounding the door down. Maybe even one of Wisler or Blair will look good.

IMO a 500 team at the deadline will look to add, not trade off. And probably it's a big mistake.

The challenge is we have never seen Coppy in that position. What to do if the following happens:

- Braves are at or slightly above .500
- Teheran & Folty pitching great (~3.2ERA, 1.2WHIP, etc)
- Garcia pitching great (~3.2ERA, 1.2WHIP, etc)
- Colon and Dickey pitching adaquate but not good enough for anyone to want them

- Fried is pitching lights out in AA (~2.6ERA, 12K/9, good poise)
- Newcomb pitching to expectations in AAA (~3ERA, 12K/9, 3+BB/9)
- Wisler and Blair pitching well enough in AAA (~3.2ERA, good % of quality starts)

What do you do? What does Coppy do?

I see 3 options
1) Sell high on Garcia, RP - Dickey, bring up at least 2 of the young guys. (my preference)
2) Keep Garcia, RP - Dickey, bring up 1 young guy (push to make playoffs)
3) Keep Garcia, RP - Dickey and Colon, bring up 2 young guys

Here is hoping enough good stuff happens this year to stimulate the discussion!!!

[bravesguy]

Two of my on-going thoughts...

1) When a injury prone player does well, sell fast
2) When a high demand player has a replacement, sell fast (if good deal)

I predict - Garcia and Viz both fit those criteria. Garcia with Fried / Newcomb. Viz with Minter.