So It's All In One Place

[clvclv]

Everyone keeps talking about how these two deals have made us so much better on the farm. But we are now even more screwed long term with outfield depth it seems. Why would we not dangle guys like Kimbrel and Minor to try to build that part up?

Next steps - Minor and Kimbrel join Gattis and Johnson on the trading block.

[clvclv]

For Kimbrel, no one is paying top dollar in a trade for a closer right now. Its much better to wait until mid season when trading is the only option teams have. Kimbrel isnt a rental so teams should be less hesitant to fork over top prospects for him.

For Minor, I think its best to bet on him and hope he returns to what he was from mid 2012 thru 2013. If he does his value sky rockets. If not I think his value only drops slightly.

Always relative depending on your definition of "top dollar"...

quite sure Detroit would be willing to offer up Derek Hill, Steven Moya, and Buck Farmer for Kimbrel. I wonder if the Yankees would offer up Aaron Judge plus for Minor.

[clvclv]

Mayo's take...

http://m.braves.mlb.com/news/article...tin-upton-deal

[CyYoung31]

My guess is that the team is petrified of alienating the fanbase.

Too late.

[MadduxFanII]

Just listing years of control is incredibly misleading. The Braves could have traded for thethe and "won" in terms of "years of control." What matters is talent.

4 years of Shelby Miller is awesome, but 6 years of a blah "prospect" like Dustin Peterson is worth a bag of paper towels.

I already offered a thanks, but THANK YOU. We have six years of control over Max Fried- awesome! Now all he has to do is recover from major arm surgery, work through two or three levels of the minor leagues and become a major league pitcher we want to have control over.

[Tapate50]

Next steps - Minor and Kimbrel join Gattis and Johnson on the trading block.

Id send those two packing to Texas. They should have high interest in those two players.

[dak]

@Joelsherman1
#Padres have renovated roster, but execs from other teams say #athletics #nationals #braves all do well in hauls got from SD

[Dalyn]

Johnson and Gattis are the last standing. Once they are gone, we will suck against lefties, too.

[cajunrevenge]

Always relative depending on your definition of "top dollar"...

quite sure Detroit would be willing to offer up Derek Hill, Steven Moya, and Buck Farmer for Kimbrel. I wonder if the Yankees would offer up Aaron Judge plus for Minor.

yeah our definition of "top dollar" is different.

[BedellBrave]

I've been in the "blow this thing up" camp for awhile now. Keep plugging away Hart. Take the shots to do what needs doing.

[clvclv]

I've been in the "blow this thing up" camp for awhile now. Keep plugging away Hart. Take the shots to do what needs doing.

About 4-5 years late IMO, but it had to be done at some point.

[BedellBrave]

About 4-5 years late IMO, but it had to be done at some point.

Agreed. And looking at where all the newcomers are now being ranked in the farm system, then I'd say that Hart has made some major progress with that part of the project.

Now what to do with Gattis, CJ and Kimbrell...

[cajunrevenge]

It really should be a full rebuilding. If we can't win with Teheran/Wood/Minor/Miller/Freeman/Gattis/Simmons making under 20 million combined it's not going to be much easier when they make 60+ million in 2017.

[Heyward]

It really should be a full rebuilding. If we can't win with Teheran/Wood/Minor/Miller/Freeman/Gattis/Simmons making under 20 million combined it's not going to be much easier when they make 60+ million in 2017.

Payroll should jump to 130+ by then, not a big deal

[clvclv]

It really should be a full rebuilding. If we can't win with Teheran/Wood/Minor/Miller/Freeman/Gattis/Simmons making under 20 million combined it's not going to be much easier when they make 60+ million in 2017.

Exact reason I'm all for rolling the dice and moving Kimbrel, Minor, and Gattis now - could completely stock system from 1-20 with prospects who should all be ready around the time the new park opens. Make a couple of serious international splashes in Moncada and Alfredo Despaigne/Lourdes Gourriel and a couple of free-agent signings either of the next two winters and the organization would be far better off than it is now.

[nsacpi]

My take on what we got and what we gave up.

Jace Peterson--statistics are impressive, but remember he was playing in the California, Texas and Pacific Coast Leagues the past two years. All excellent hitting environments. Similar to players like Pastornicky and La Stella in our systems.

Dustin Peterson--struggled in Low A as a 19 year old. Closest comp in our system might be Connor Lien who had a better season in low A as a 20 year old.

Mallex Smith--had success in both Low A and High A as a 21 year old. Similar to the success that our own Jose Peraza had in High A and AA as a 20 year old. If you consider that Peraza was one level ahead of Smith while a year younger and also playing in tougher hitting environments, you can get a sense of context to evaluate Smith's success in 2014.

It is noteworthy that none of these three made their league's Top 20 prospects in 2014 (using BA's lists).

Collectively, I would value the three at 1.5 WAR.

I will hold off on Fried until the end.

Now for what we gave up.

Justin Upton projects at about a 3.5 WAR player in 2015 while being payed the price of a 2 WAR player. Surplus value is 1.5 WAR.

The draft pick (about #30) is worth about 1.5 WAR.

So what we've given up is worth about 3 WAR.

I saved Fried for last because he is the most difficult to value. I will point out that we got Paul Maholm for Vizcaino (at a time when Viz was recovering from TJ surgery and at a time when Maholm was an effective major league starting pitcher with a reasonable contract with one and half seasons left on it). To make this an even trade you have to value Fried at about 1.5 WAR in terms of surplus value. This is pretty close to where I value him and I would say this comes close to being a fair trade.

I have no problems with this trade. As I have discussed elsewhere, I do have problems with the Heyward and Markakis moves. Those are much more likely to work out poorly for the team.

All the above thoughts are couched in terms of probabilities. In all cases, it is possible a player could end up performing much better or much worse than his central tendencies. But it is not a good idea to base an ex ante evaluation upon outcomes far in the tails of the distribution of possible outcomes.

[Perfect Cell]

Viz is our fith best prospect now? gross.

[holden]

My take on what we got and what we gave up.

Jace Peterson--statistics are impressive, but remember he was playing in the California, Texas and Pacific Coast Leagues the past two years. All excellent hitting environments. Similar to players like Pastornicky and La Stella in our systems.

Dustin Peterson--struggled in Low A as a 19 year old. Closest comp in our system might be Connor Lien who had a better season in low A as a 20 year old.

Mallex Smith--had success in both Low A and High A as a 21 year old. Similar to the success that our own Jose Peraza had in High A and AA as a 20 year old. If you consider that Peraza was one level ahead of Smith while a year younger and also playing in tougher hitting environments, you can get a sense of context to evaluate Smith's success in 2014.

It is noteworthy that none of these three made their league's Top 20 prospects in 2014 (using BA's lists).

Collectively, I would value the three at 1.5 WAR.

I will hold off on Fried until the end.

Now for what we gave up.

Justin Upton projects at about a 3.5 WAR player in 2015 while being payed the price of a 2 WAR player. Surplus value is 1.5 WAR.

The draft pick (about #30) is worth about 1.5 WAR.

So what we've given up is worth about 3 WAR.

I saved Fried for last because he is the most difficult to value. I will point out that we got Paul Maholm for Vizcaino (at a time when Viz was recovering from TJ surgery and at a time when Maholm was an effective major league starting pitcher with a reasonable contract with one and half seasons left on it). To make this an even trade you have to value Fried at about 1.5 WAR in terms of surplus value. This is pretty close to where I value him and I would say this comes close to being a fair trade.

I have no problems with this trade. As I have discussed elsewhere, I do have problems with the Heyward and Markakis moves. Those are much more likely to work out poorly for the team.

All the above thoughts are couched in terms of probabilities. In all cases, it is possible a player could end up performing much better or much worse than his central tendencies. But it is not a good idea to base an ex ante evaluation upon outcomes far in the tails of the distribution of possible outcomes.

Stop with the EXTREME REACTIONS

[clvclv]

Updating the gambles and rebuild following the Banuelos acquisition.

That's now 4 out of our new MLB Pipeline Top 10 and 6 of our Top 20 acquired in the last month.

[rico43]

Looks like we should all watch the minor leagues since that is the current focus. Let years of CK, FF, simmons go.

It's always worked for me.