Braves donate Justin Upton to Padres for prospects

[nsacpi]

This conversation is still about Smith, right? Because he only had about a half season in the California League. The rest of his A stats came while playing for Fort Wayne in the Midwest League. Judging by the stats of the rest of that team, it looks like they play in somewhat of a pitcher's park. Either that or most of them are terrible hitters.

You're right about the Midwest League. But a 21 year old repeating in Low A after spending all of 2013 there and hitting well there doesn't impress me.

[BedellBrave]

This argument makes zero sense.

We could've won 83 games and won the World Series. St. Louis did it in 2006.

The best constructed team doesn't usually win the World Series. That's the nature of baseball. And whereas before we had a decent chance at a playoff spot and a small chance at a title, now we have basically no chance at either. Great.

Possibly, if you only think short-term.

[nsacpi]

Pie never had the walk rates this kid have. That is what I'm excited about. High walk rates and speed are an interesting combination IMO. I could be wrong and you are much better at analysis than I am (most obvious thing ever said), but I just believe in that combination. We need guys who present tough AB's after the swing and miss crap we've dealt with for the last three years.

Smith has a similar profile to Kyle Wren. I'll leave it at that. I like those two about equally.

[BedellBrave]

Considering our 2014 team was better than that and only won 79 games, no I don't think we would have been contenders.

Amen.

[thethe]

Smith has a similar profile to Kyle Wren. I'll leave it at that. I like those two about equally.

Only Wren has worse walk rates and is 2 years older than Smith and only 1 developmental level ahead.

[gilesfan]

Pie never had the walk rates this kid have. That is what I'm excited about. High walk rates and speed are an interesting combination IMO. I could be wrong and you are much better at analysis than I am (most obvious thing ever said), but I just believe in that combination. We need guys who present tough AB's after the swing and miss crap we've dealt with for the last three years.

Most players have drastic decreases in walk rate as they move up

[BedellBrave]

While I think it was a no question no brainer to move Justin, Heyward, and pretty much anyone else not named Freeman, Simmons and probably Kimbrel, nor the starters not named Minor, I question the strategy of what they are looking for in return.

It looks like they want high end pitching, therefore Fried. I don't understand this. If you look at the rotation, you have 3 or 4 young ML starters who are reasonably good (depends on if you count Minor) and are under control for significant years. And, in the minors, you have 2-4 good young starters who have a decent chance of panning out - Sims, Hursch, etc.

Now, I could understand it if the cycle of baseball was more like the '90's as opposed to the '60's where hitting was the commodity and pitching was scarce. But, that's not where we are. Whether you want to attribute it to PED testing or a natural cycle or whatever, right now hitting is a premium while pitching is a commodity.

The strategy might be to trade for pitching and sign hitting, but I think that is 100% the wrong thinking. When something is scarce, it costs more.

I would much rather see the Braves loading up on position prospects with high ceiling, even if it means taking lower level guys. After all, in effect, by the time Fried actually throws a pitch, other pitchers could have elevated from low A ball to AAA, so the fact that he is somewhat advanced in the minors already really carries no weight. The same would go for hitters.

That's what it looks like may happen. Hart & company will trade pitching prospects (which hopefully won't be scarce for us) for established hitters in the next couple of years.

[nsacpi]

Only Wren has worse walk rates and is 2 years older than Smith and only 1 developmental level ahead.

Other relevant variables. Smith has been a pro a year longer. His strikeout rate in High A last year was 18.4%. Wren's in High A (and in a tougher hitting environment) was 11.6%. Smith had a BABIP of .400 in high A, a number that suggests a considerable amount of luck even taking account of his speed and the hitting environment. Wren's BABIP in high A was .333, a number that indicates neutral luck for a fast player hitting from the left side.

There are quite a few variables to take into account. After doing so, I like them about equally. I think they both have about a 10% chance of being major league regulars. Most likely both will have short ML careers as bench players. Career WAR numbers of 0.5 is my expected value for both. I'm an unsentimental grader.

[BedellBrave]

I think that is outmoded thinking. Pitchers don't win games. Teams win games. Yes, pitchers are the most important part of the team, most often. But, a team with great pitching and absolutely no offense isn't going to win anything, especially considering where you play. I don't know how the new park will play but I would not expect it to be a huge pitchers park.

I am all for adequate pitching, even excessive depth of pitching but only if other areas of the team are in good health. Right now, those other areas are in terrible health with almost no help expected from the minors.

I wonder where the focus will be with international signings moving forward. Hitting? It'll be an interesting strategy to watch. And I'm hoping for a strategy. :)

[thethe]

Other relevant variables. Smith has been a pro a year longer. His strikeout rate in High A last year was 18.4%. Wren's in High A (and in a tougher hitting environment) was 11.6%. Smith had a BABIP of .400 in high A, a number that suggests a considerable amount of luck even taking account of his speed and the hitting environment. Wren's BABIP in high A was .333, a number that indicates neutral luck for a fast player hitting from the left side.

There are quite a few variables to take into account. After doing so, I like them about equally.

I don't see how Smith being a pro for longer is a negative. I view that as a positive since he got better instruction at an earlier age.

I'd hope Wren wouldn't have a huge K rate when he is 23 facing 20 year olds in A ball. Small sample of course but once he started facing age appropriate competition his K rate spiked.

[thethe]

I wonder where the focus will be with international signings moving forward. Hitting? It'll be an interesting strategy to watch. And I'm hoping for a strategy. :)

Hopefully a guy like Moncada is the target. The money is there now and in the future considering there should be considerable amounts of "filler" talent in the next few years.

[BedellBrave]

Hopefully a guy like Moncada is the target. The money is there now and in the future considering there should be considerable amounts of "filler" talent in the next few years.

I wonder who the three guys are that Hart is targeting. It'd be sweet if Moncada was one of them...

[Julio3000]

Was it mentioned earlier that we included Northcraft in the Upton deal? Apologies, if so. Anyway, we did.

[nsacpi]

I don't see how Smith being a pro for longer is a negative. I view that as a positive since he got better instruction at an earlier age.

I'd hope Wren wouldn't have a huge K rate when he is 23 facing 20 year olds in A ball. Small sample of course but once he started facing age appropriate competition his K rate spiked.

Being a pro longer means he should be more advanced everything else equal.

Take a look at Jose Constanza's age 22 season in 2006 for a good comp for both Wren and Smith in 2014. He split his time between high and low A that season and put up an OBP of over .400 with very good strikeout and walk rates. Both Wren and Smith are likely to end up with Constanza like careers, but without Constanza's flair for the occasional big hit in clutch situations.

[Hawk]

Was it mentioned earlier that we included Northcraft in the Upton deal? Apologies, if so. Anyway, we did.

Apparently he didn't need TJ.

[nsacpi]

Here's another comparable for Smith. Theo Bowe. Had a very similar season in 2012 in the California League at the same age. Anyone know whatever happened to Theo Bowe?

[Diesel]

I wonder who the three guys are that Hart is targeting. It'd be sweet if Moncada was one of them...

Was it said that we are in on "3 guys"?? I must have missed it.

[thethe]

Here's another comparable for Smith. Theo Bowe. Had a very similar season in 2012 in the California League at the same age. Anyone know whatever happened to Theo Bowe?

He didn't know how to hit a baseball.

[nsacpi]

He didn't know how to hit a baseball.

He didn't develop. AA pitching is a big step up. At least Wren has held his own in AA.

[jpx7]

The best move/moves were made and that is a fact.

Stating your opinion, followed by "and that is a fact," doesn't render your opinion unassailably factual.