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Thread: 2019 MLB Draft Thread

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Approach is interesting. Almost similar to not signing any big international FA but spending 50-100k on a bunch of guys. Never know how teenagers will develop.
    That’s a good point. It’s definitely a bet on player development, which AA has harped on quite a bit since taking over.

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    Bowman article about the draft: https://www.mlb.com/braves/news/brav...day-3-coverage

    He says Shewmake isn’t an underslot pick and that Tampa was going to take him with the next pick. Not sure how he’d know that unless someone in the Atlanta front office told him, which makes me skeptical of its validity.

    He says Beau Philip is an underslot guy but then mentions that being necessary to sign Harris. The only picks mentions after round 10 are the attempts to sign Vaughn Grissom and Tyler Owens. I certainly hope we can sign more than just those two.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CJ9 View Post
    Bowman article about the draft: https://www.mlb.com/braves/news/brav...day-3-coverage

    He says Shewmake isn’t an underslot pick and that Tampa was going to take him with the next pick. Not sure how he’d know that unless someone in the Atlanta front office told him, which makes me skeptical of its validity.

    He says Beau Philip is an underslot guy but then mentions that being necessary to sign Harris. The only picks mentions after round 10 are the attempts to sign Vaughn Grissom and Tyler Owens. I certainly hope we can sign more than just those two.
    It sounds like a good bit of our Day 2 picks will be underslot as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CJ9 View Post
    Bowman article about the draft: https://www.mlb.com/braves/news/brav...day-3-coverage

    He says Shewmake isn’t an underslot pick and that Tampa was going to take him with the next pick. Not sure how he’d know that unless someone in the Atlanta front office told him, which makes me skeptical of its validity.

    He says Beau Philip is an underslot guy but then mentions that being necessary to sign Harris. The only picks mentions after round 10 are the attempts to sign Vaughn Grissom and Tyler Owens. I certainly hope we can sign more than just those two.
    I don't buy the Tampa was going to take him stuff for the same reason. Sounds like FO spin. They know a lot of people questioned taking a utility player at 21.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CJ9 View Post
    Bowman article about the draft: https://www.mlb.com/braves/news/brav...day-3-coverage

    He says Shewmake isn’t an underslot pick and that Tampa was going to take him with the next pick. Not sure how he’d know that unless someone in the Atlanta front office told him, which makes me skeptical of its validity.

    He says Beau Philip is an underslot guy but then mentions that being necessary to sign Harris. The only picks mentions after round 10 are the attempts to sign Vaughn Grissom and Tyler Owens. I certainly hope we can sign more than just those two.
    What with ATL beat writer always covering for crappy picks with the narrative that the next team was gonna take this guy so we took him BS smh! The Falcons do the same exact crap! I'm tired of it! Just take your guy who cares who the next team takes!

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    Not a lot of substance here, but found this article -- Owens has a decision: Florida or Atlanta Braves https://www.gatorsports.com/2019/06/...tlanta-braves/

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    Good news on 14th rounder Jared Johnson -- he plans to sign this weekend. "He says he plans to sign with the Braves this weekend and move on to rookie ball." https://www.wtva.com/content/sports/...510886871.html

    He went 9-0 on the mound this season with a 0.68 ERA and 100 strikeouts. He also hit .480 with ten home runs and 27 RBI.

    Also found a Baseball America article on him as a pop up guy that touched 97: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stor...n-mississippi/

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    Article on 16th rounder Joey Estes: https://www.avpress.com/sports/estes...db08a8b63.html

    Some important parts:

    "Atlanta indicated to Chad Eberhardt, Estes’ advisor, that they could meet the price tag necessary to turn pro immediately. It would depend on if previous draft picks signed at bonus levels the organization budgeted for, so there could be some waiting involved."

    "One of Estes’ Spirits teammates this season was Dominic Ragazzo, the son of Braves international scouting operative Rick Regazzo. Ragazzo has been a scout since 1990, including a stint as Vice-President of Pro Scouting with the Dodgers under general manager Ned Colletti."

    "A three-year starter for Coach Greg Burnias at Paraclete, Estes wrapped up his high school career in 2019 with an 8-0 record and 0.91 ERA. He struck out 124 in 77 innings pitched."

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    Quote Originally Posted by striker42 View Post
    I don't buy the Tampa was going to take him stuff for the same reason. Sounds like FO spin. They know a lot of people questioned taking a utility player at 21.
    Do you think they made crappy picks on purpose?
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    Shewmake will be interesting to follow. If he signs underslot it fits the strategy we think they followed. If he signs at slot then I'll be curious to see if the Braves were right, or if just about everyone else was. He doesn't look like a Day 1 player to me.
    Go get him!

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    We did have strong interest in another college shortstop, Greg Jones, who was drafted by Tampa Bay just after Shewmake. I think if it was close to a coin flip between those two we might have chosen based on their respecting signing prices.
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    Could this draft turn out ok? Sure.

    What are the odds of it turning out ok? Not good at all if you look at:

    a. Industry consensus: the Braves are essentially saying they are smarter than all the other "experts" in baseball. And while that can be the case in a one-off basis, it's not really a good strategy.

    b. Historical performance of players similar to those they drafted in the areas where they drafted them.

    With the 6th biggest pool of money in baseball, the Braves signed a bunch of high floor, low ceiling projects who are unlikely to ever be more than bit pieces at the ML level, if they make it at all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    Could this draft turn out ok? Sure.

    What are the odds of it turning out ok? Not good at all if you look at:

    a. Industry consensus: the Braves are essentially saying they are smarter than all the other "experts" in baseball. And while that can be the case in a one-off basis, it's not really a good strategy.

    b. Historical performance of players similar to those they drafted in the areas where they drafted them.

    With the 6th biggest pool of money in baseball, the Braves signed a bunch of high floor, low ceiling projects who are unlikely to ever be more than bit pieces at the ML level, if they make it at all.
    thank god this opinion was stated for 500th time.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    Could this draft turn out ok? Sure.

    What are the odds of it turning out ok? Not good at all if you look at:

    a. Industry consensus: the Braves are essentially saying they are smarter than all the other "experts" in baseball. And while that can be the case in a one-off basis, it's not really a good strategy.

    b. Historical performance of players similar to those they drafted in the areas where they drafted them.

    With the 6th biggest pool of money in baseball, the Braves signed a bunch of high floor, low ceiling projects who are unlikely to ever be more than bit pieces at the ML level, if they make it at all.
    With respect to point a, I don't think there is an industry consensus on the players beyond the top 50. Take Paolini for example. Apparently there were other teams besides us that were following him closely and had indicated they would be picking him about where we did. Take Estes for another example. He lives out in Antelope Valley, in the desert outside LA. Not a heavily scouted area. But apparently one of his teammates was the son of one of our scouts. Sometimes these little connections make a difference.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    With respect to point a, I don't think there is an industry consensus on the players beyond the top 50. Take Paolini for example. Apparently there were other teams besides us that were following him closely and had indicated they would be picking him about where we did. Take Estes for another example. He lives out in Antelope Valley, in the desert outside LA. Not a heavily scouted area. But apparently one of his teammates was the son of one of our scouts. Sometimes these little connections make a difference.
    My favorite baseball book of all time is Dollar Sign on the Muscle by Kevin Kerrane. It first came out in 1984, so it's really old school in its viewpoints, but it talks to a lot of old-time scouts and the yarns they spin are absolutely priceless. Some of the stories from the pre-draft era are an absolute hoot. The game has changed mightily in how talent is scouted, but you are still going to run across situations like the one we have with Estes.

    Agree with your synopsis on valuation of prospects. Unlike football, where everyone sees what happens at the combine and has access to mountains of game film on most everyone being considered draftable, baseball evaluators have to dig a little deeper. I think once you get past the top level of the cream, there really is no consensus. And sometimes there are fly specks on the surface of the cream.

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    Fangraphs pod, two mins on every team and Braves start at 5:23: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-unti...ft-review-pod/

    "There were a lot of thoughts from inside the industry that did not like this haul for the Braves."

    Kiley says he heard scouts think Michael Harris could potentially have three above average pitches if he went full time on the mound.

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    Quote Originally Posted by striker42 View Post
    I don't buy the Tampa was going to take him stuff for the same reason. Sounds like FO spin. They know a lot of people questioned taking a utility player at 21.
    The only problem I have with this scenario is I always live by the adage "Never fall in love with a player to the extent it's going to screw things up." Shewmate wasn't going to fall to #60, but if they had someone higher on their list than Shewmate that they passed on because another team was going to take Shewmate, that's just not a good way to do business.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CJ9 View Post
    Fangraphs pod, two mins on every team and Braves start at 5:23: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-unti...ft-review-pod/

    "There were a lot of thoughts from inside the industry that did not like this haul for the Braves."

    Kiley says he heard scouts think Michael Harris could potentially have three above average pitches if he went full time on the mound.
    It's really going to depend on how many of the early third-day high schoolers sign. There looks to be some real potential there. Paolini fell out of the sky and my impressions on the first two days may well hinge on him.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    It's really going to depend on how many of the early third-day high schoolers sign. There looks to be some real potential there. Paolini fell out of the sky and my impressions on the first two days may well hinge on him.
    I probably should've clarified, but that podcast was done before day three started. So it's very possible that their opinions could change if they sign those round 11-19 guys.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mqt View Post
    It sounds like a good bit of our Day 2 picks will be underslot as well.
    I will differ with nsacpi in his assessment. They may have to over slot for Paolini, but I see Kalich, Gordon, Vines, DeVito, and Parker all coming in underslot (not that it will make much difference with Parker). Milligan will likely be at slot or slightly above.

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