Discussion of Braves 2018 Offseason plans

[thethe]

If you aren’t shooting for playoffs, I agree

I don't think playoffs should be the #1 goal going into 2018. There are much more important things for the future of the organization.

[Enscheff]

However you want to rank him its clear now that Riley is a real prospect and should be considered in the Braves long term plans. That is why I am strongly against any option that is signed longer than 2 years and why it makes so much sense to just play Camargo.

Teams do not plan their futures around 45/50 FV prospects. It’s asinine to even consider it.

Teams plan around Swanson, Albies and Acuna. They do not plan around Riley.

[nsacpi]

Teams plan around Swanson, Albies and Acuna. They do not plan around Riley.

Correct. If Riley develops into a regular, we will find a way to benefit from that.

However, it is also a moot point. With the possible exception of Moustakas, there isn't a candidate out there for third that is going to "block" anyone for an extended period.

We should go about shoring up the left side of the infield for 2018, focusing as always on getting good value and controlling financial risk, and let the chips fall where they may with respect to Riley's development.

[thethe]

Correct. If Riley develops into a regular, we will find a way to benefit from that.

However, it is also a moot point. With the possible exception of Moustakas, there isn't a candidate out there for third that is going to "block" anyone for an extended period.

We should go about shoring up the left side of the infield for 2018, focusing as always on getting good value and controlling financial risk, and let the chips fall where they may with respect to Riley's development.

If Camargo wasn't present then I wouldn't hold this stance but I'm not sure why we wouldn't believe that Camargo will provide plenty of surplus value at third considering his defensive abilities and continual improvement with the bat.

Also, prospects rankings are not stagnant. Just 2 years ago Gohara was a 45FV prospect. Did he really improve that much or did he just stay healthy and continue to perform? Riley has excelled thus far in his career at a nice age delta to the level he was playing at. The reports are improving based on the initial reports far out of peoples mind. Who is to say that Riley isn't a 55FV by the end of the season?

Riley is real close to being in the discussion for 2019 third base and I don't want a 2 year committment to some 32+ year old guy blocking that. To me its just an inefficient use of funds. Just get BP arms and try and see if you can fix LF.

[nsacpi]

If Camargo wasn't present then I wouldn't hold this stance but I'm not sure why we wouldn't believe that Camargo will provide plenty of surplus value at third considering his defensive abilities and continual improvement with the bat.

Also, prospects rankings are not stagnant. Just 2 years ago Gohara was a 45FV prospect. Did he really improve that much or did he just stay healthy and continue to perform? Riley has excelled thus far in his career at a nice age delta to the level he was playing at. The reports are improving based on the initial reports far out of peoples mind. Who is to say that Riley isn't a 55FV by the end of the season?

Riley is real close to being in the discussion for 2019 third base and I don't want a 2 year committment to some 32+ year old guy blocking that. To me its just an inefficient use of funds. Just get BP arms and try and see if you can fix LF.

We're kind of splitting hairs here. I'm willing to go three years for guys like Nunez and Frazier. You're willing to go 2. Realistically those two are not going to sign 2 year deals. We are probably not going to get them even with a 3-year offer. Most likely we are going to trade for someone to help out on the left side of the infield. Prado has 2 years left. Solarte has 1 year with 2 options. Third will be there for the taking if Riley pans out.

[thethe]

Its just winter league but its a data point. So far this year Camargo would be leading the league in OPS if he qualified. I get that its a small sample size as well as an inferior league but its another data point showing an offensive improvement (mainly power) that Camargo has shown.

I'm not even expecting him to be a stud or a really good player but why we can't think that a 2.5 WAR isn't possible is strange to me and I would sign for that right now.

[thethe]

We're kind of splitting hairs here. I'm willing to go three years for guys like Nunez and Frazier. You're willing to go 2. Realistically those two are not going to sign 2 year deals. We are probably not going to get them even with a 3-year offer. Most likely we are going to trade for someone to help out on the left side of the infield. Prado has 2 years left. Solarte has 1 year with 2 options. Third will be there for the taking if Riley pans out.

My 2 year comment was after we sign them to a 3 year deal this year and Riley is ready in 2019.

[nsacpi]

Its just winter league but its a data point. So far this year Camargo would be leading the league in OPS if he qualified. I get that its a small sample size as well as an inferior league but its another data point showing an offensive improvement (mainly power) that Camargo has shown.

I'm not even expecting him to be a stud or a really good player but why we can't think that a 2.5 WAR isn't possible is strange to me and I would sign for that right now.

I like Camargo and expect him to get plenty of at bats in 2018. But I do think we need another player who has already shown he can play at the major league level to strengthen the left side of the infield.

[thethe]

I like Camargo and expect him to get plenty of at bats in 2018. But I do think we need another player who has already shown he can play at the major league level to strengthen the left side of the infield.

Wouldn't we be looking for a left handed bat though considering his splits? I'd be interested in Solarte for that reason as he would compliment Camargo nicely.

Bringing in a right handed bat just doesn't make sense to me.

[Enscheff]

If Camargo wasn't present then I wouldn't hold this stance but I'm not sure why we wouldn't believe that Camargo will provide plenty of surplus value at third considering his defensive abilities and continual improvement with the bat.

Also, prospects rankings are not stagnant. Just 2 years ago Gohara was a 45FV prospect. Did he really improve that much or did he just stay healthy and continue to perform? Riley has excelled thus far in his career at a nice age delta to the level he was playing at. The reports are improving based on the initial reports far out of peoples mind. Who is to say that Riley isn't a 55FV by the end of the season?

Riley is real close to being in the discussion for 2019 third base and I don't want a 2 year committment to some 32+ year old guy blocking that. To me its just an inefficient use of funds. Just get BP arms and try and see if you can fix LF.

And teams were not planning around Gohara back when he was a 45, just like they weren’t planning around all the other 45 prospects who didn’t turn out to be anything...which is why they were graded at 45.

[thethe]

And teams were not planning around Gohara back when he was a 45, just like they weren’t planning around all the other 45 prospects who didn’t turn out to be anything...which is why they were graded at 45.

THe Mariners certainly made the mistake of not planning around him.

[nsacpi]

Wouldn't we be looking for a left handed bat though considering his splits? I'd be interested in Solarte for that reason as he would compliment Camargo nicely.

Bringing in a right handed bat just doesn't make sense to me.

Ideally a left-handed bat, yes. But the main thing is to get a good player to help out on the left side of the infield. Cozart is another one I'd be willing to out 3 years for.

[nsacpi]

And teams were not planning around Gohara back when he was a 45, just like they weren’t planning around all the other 45 prospects who didn’t turn out to be anything...which is why they were graded at 45.

Gohara also pitched very well at four different levels in 2017. Not too many prospects blow through 4 levels in one year like he did. And its silly to project anyone will do something like that. But when it happens you adjust your valuation accordingly.

[thethe]

Gohara also pitched very well at four different levels in 2017. Not too many prospects blow through 4 levels in one year like he did. And its silly to project anyone will do something like that. But when it happens you adjust your valuation accordingly.

But the question is then was the 2016 valuation correct? Did he really improve that much in one season or was there a consensus miss on who he was as a player?

[nsacpi]

But the question is then was the 2016 valuation correct? Did he really improve that much in one season or was there a consensus miss on who he was as a player?

From the perspective of any team, they have to look at more than one observation to decide if they are satisfied with their valuation system. I'm sure the Mariners are doing some analysis to see if they missed something they shouldn't have with Gohara. But one of the properties you want out of a projection system is for the errors to be distributed fairly normally. You don't want all your errors to be in one direction. Its ok for a fan like you to only err in one direction. Much less so for someone in the business.

[Enscheff]

I do agree with tehteh that it all depends on the goals of 2018. If the Braves are going to push for 85+ wins and fix LF, 3B, the BP, and maybe add a stable SP, it’s silly to plan around Riley.

However, if the Braves are not going to fix all those positions (most likely due to not having the payroll to do so), then they may as well see how Camargo does. A year from now Riley could very well have put himself in position to be planned around. More likely he’s a 1-2 win guy who will be non-tendered when he hits Ard 1 or 2, but if the Braves aren’t going to win in 2018 anyways they may as well find out and leave the space open just in case.

[Enscheff]

From the perspective of any team, they have to look at more than one observation to decide if they are satisfied with their valuation system. I'm sure the Mariners are doing some analysis to see if they missed something they shouldn't have with Gohara. But one of the properties you want out of a projection system is for the errors to be distributed fairly normally. You don't want all your errors to be in one direction. Its ok for a fan like you to only err in one direction. Much less so for someone in the business.

Dipoto is pretty bad. He has gutted the farm making win now moves, and hasn’t won anything.

[nsacpi]

I do agree with tehteh that it all depends on the goals of 2018. If the Braves are going to push for 85+ wins and fix LF, 3B, the BP, and maybe add a stable SP, it’s silly to plan around Riley.

However, if the Braves are not going to fix all those positions (most likely due to not having the payroll to do so), then they may as well see how Camargo does. A year from now Riley could very well have put himself in position to be planned around. More likely he’s a 1-2 win guy who will be non-tendered when he hits Ard 1 or 2, but if the Braves aren’t going to win in 2018 anyways they may as well find out and leave the space open just in case.

We're going to be distributing about 1400 plate appearances between short and third. Camargo is going to get 400-500 of those even if we bring in a third player.

[thethe]

We're going to be distributing about 1400 plate appearances between short and third. Camargo is going to get 400-500 of those even if we bring in a third player.

But then what happens in 2019 if Riley is ready?

[nsacpi]

But then what happens in 2019 if Riley is ready?

Lets say hypothetically we have Cozart, Camargo and Swanson sharing third and short in 2018. And they turn in solid seasons. There are two benefits here. One is solid production from the left side of the infield in 2018. The second is we have a trade chip if Riley pans out.

The downside risk to acquiring someone is that he fails to live up the contract and we are stuck with him.

The downside risk to not acquiring someone like Cozart comes if Camargo and/or Swanson plays poorly in 2018 or gets hurt and we don't have anything better than a replacement level player to plug in.

I am for acquiring someone from the group of Prado, Solarte, Yandy Diaz, Cozart, Frazier and Nunez. We have enough choices so that we can avoid overpaying or taking undue risk.