I think we would need to know who would be available first before we definitively said that. You could get one above average everyday player who would provide just as much value if not more than Kimbrel....especially when you consider we would probably control that person for 6 years.Originally Posted by Carp
Natural Immunity Croc
What are the odds that we get a prospect that will be able to contribute immediately and at a high level? I would say not very good. Even if we get Castenallos, it isn't a given that he's even going to be much better than our internal options.
Or our existing 3B
Also since the fielder trade went down, let's put the odds of Castellanos not being the starting 3B in Detroit at about 0.
Miggy will be moving to 1B, and probably eventually DH.
Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg
We really don't have any internal options that approach Castellanos in terms of potential, but as zito said, he's likely the Tigers' starting 3B come April 2014. Castellanos still has a ton to prove at the big league level, but he's kind of flew through the Tigers' system. Not a ton of 21-year-olds in AAA.
Not saying it would have happened but Castellanos is not being traded now. He's playing 3B with Cabrera going back to 1B.
Chris Johnson gets no respect, even after being one of the few bright spots in the playoffs.
Craig Kimbrel won the National League's Delivery Man of the Year award.
Kimbrell posted a 1.21 ERA, .166 opponents' batting average and a 98/20 K/BB rate over 67 innings. He also led the NL with 50 saves out of 54 chances. He's the first Braves closer to win the award in its nine-year history.
Ivermectin Man
Trade his ass.
I am all for trading Kimbrel but its going to take the right situation to do it. If we had no closer would you rather sign Joe Nathan for 2 years 20 million or trade Alex Wood and other prospects for Kimbrel and 30+ million over the next 3 years. We need to wait for a team to be desperate and that is almost always going to be mid season. What I would do is sign Brian Wilson to a 1 year deal and if a team gets desperate around the trade deadline make the move. There is almost always a contender in July who has a desperate need for a closer.
"Donald Trump will serve a second term as president of the United States.
It’s over."
Little Thethe Nov 19, 2020.
Maybe we tried to sign LaTroy Hawkins so we could trade Kimbrel.
And this is what pisses me off. If we can't keep Jason it better be on account of him not wanting to be in Atl, because he certainly hasn't earned a thing to warrant the title "expensive ".
gcbraves (11-22-2013)
I think more than a few teams are still drooling over what Heyward can be moreso than what he has done. I imagine BJ's deal is the floor for what Heyward can expect on the open market in a couple seasons.
If this is the case, then the market for Kimbrel down the road may lead to Atlanta being able to keep him.
The arbitration process alone will take Kimbrel out of range for a reasonable contract for a mid level team.
Depends what you mean by expensive.
I'd give him 10-15 in AAV on a contract without a doubt which is pretty much a bargain these days.
With your screen name you are obviously not a disinterested party.
J/K
Olney just wrote the same thing...
LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. -- The Tampa Bay Rays have been collecting information this week in their trade conversations about starter David Price, because eventually they will have to trade him. They drafted Price, they developed Price, they love Price, and he is a team leader, but they will move him because of a simple math equation: He will soon make too much money for them to afford.
If they trade him this offseason, they will get strong value in return. If they wait, their trade return -- as well as their payroll flexibility in 2014 -- will be diminished, because Price is moving closer to the time he can become a free agent, after the 2015 season.
The Atlanta Braves should be taking notes on all this, because they have a player who fits this description and these circumstances. Someone they drafted and developed, someone they love, a team leader -- and someone who is soon going to be too expensive for their relatively modest payroll: Craig Kimbrel, the best closer on the planet.
They should be looking to trade him, and right now might be the best possible time.
The Braves control Kimbrel for three more seasons before he becomes eligible for free agency after the 2016 season, and he’s about to get pretty expensive through arbitration, with his salary climbing from $655,000 in 2013 to the expected range of $7.25 million, according to MLB Trade Rumors.
You cannot overstate how great Kimbrel has been in his first four years in the big leagues. In fact, try this on for size: His first four seasons are arguably the best of any reliever ever. The right-hander has allowed only 123 hits in 227 1/3 innings, with 381 strikeouts, 82 walks and just 10 homers surrendered. He has a career ERA of 1.39.
His ERA+ for the early work of his career stands at 282. To put that number into perspective, the greatest ERA+ for a full career is 202, by Mariano Rivera.
But remarkably, even at 25, he is beginning to approach the ceiling of what the baseball industry is willing to pay a closer. Rivera was the greatest reliever of all time, and he never made more than $15 million in any season. Just last week, the Baltimore Orioles dumped Jim Johnson -- who is coming off back-to-back seasons of 50 and 51 saves -- because they didn’t want to pay him $11 million through arbitration. The Phillies are ready to pay down big dollars to get rid of Jonathan Papelbon, who is baseball’s highest-paid closer at $13 million annually.
Kimbrel might be in line to challenge Papelbon as the game’s highest-paid closer by the start of the 2015 season, given that his arbitration case is unprecedented and pristine.
The Yankees are one of the few teams that could spend $15 million on a closer. The Phillies could. The Dodgers might. Maybe the Red Sox, for the right guy. The Rangers, perhaps.
The Braves could do it, just as the Rays could keep and pay Price. But because the Braves, like the Rays, have a relatively modest payroll, keeping a short reliever who absorbs 10 to 15 percent of the team's overall salary expense is extremely difficult. Unsustainable, really. And Atlanta’s payroll has basically stayed the same for the last 15 years because of its lousy television contract, ranging between $86 million and $106 million.
In the years ahead, the Braves will need to pay Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward and Andrelton Simmons. They owe B.J. Upton $15 million per year for the next four seasons,Dan Uggla $13 million annually for the next two seasons. They’ll have to pay Mike Minor and Julio Teheran, their two best young starting pitchers.
As great as Kimbrel is, the fact that he’ll account for just 9 to 12 outs in a relatively heavy week of action means the Braves won’t get a lot of volume of production for his growing salary. That’s a significant problem for a team with a $100 million payroll.
The Rays are working to trade Price now because he’s not so expensive, and so close to free agency, that his trade value will be mitigated. The same holds true for Kimbrel, but only right now. If the Braves wait until next winter or the winter after that to deal Kimbrel, the number of teams that would consider trading for a $12 million to $15 million closer could probably be counted on one hand.
On the other hand: With Kimbrel’s salary projected to be in the $7 million range for 2014, a lot more teams would be in play, especially for someone so dominant. Right now, there are about a half-dozen teams looking for a closer, and there probably are many other teams that would dump their current closer if they had a shot at Kimbrel. Think a team in win-now mode, like Seattle, would like him? Think the Dodgers would hesitate to move Kenley Jansen if they could have Kimbrel?
Typically, teams aren’t going to give up a lot for a short reliever, but Kimbrel may be an exception if the timing of a trade is right. And because of how Kimbrel’s salary is rocketing upward, due to his success, that window may quickly evaporate after July 31, 2014.
If the Braves don’t think they can keep Kimbrel long term, it would serve them to start collecting information and offers right now, just as the Rays are doing with Price.
Thoughts?
Last edited by Heyward; 12-13-2013 at 11:05 AM.
Yes, supposedly Pappelbon is available. This would set a precedent for the market return on expensive closers. At least Olney was wise enough to list the clubs that might be willing to spend that much. The key word is 'might,' because even the wealthiest clubs might not want to allocate $10MM+ for that role, because some of them have the luxury tax to consider. An entire effective bullpen can be constructed for that sum.
Not really, Philly wants to trade Paps and just get him off the team in a salary dump.
And those other teams with big bucks would want Kimbrel and trade for him if available.
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