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Thread: Bravos acquire C-Doumit from Twins for Gilmartin.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Braves1976 View Post
    Plus they likely want Joey T getting regular AB's and outfield reps, so that could also put him back in AAA.
    Why didn't we stick with the nickname "The Deuce?" I thought it had panache.

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    I Wouldn't be surprised if Doumit wasnt the starter. He had a down year. He's not the best, but he's probably the best overall catcher on the team in all facets of the game

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    Quote Originally Posted by Krgrecw View Post
    I Wouldn't be surprised if Doumit wasnt the starter. He had a down year. He's not the best, but he's probably the best overall catcher on the team in all facets of the game
    I doubt that's true considering how horrible he is defensively. Gattis will be the starter and Doumit will allow him to pinch hit when needed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Krgrecw View Post
    I Wouldn't be surprised if Doumit wasnt the starter. He had a down year. He's not the best, but he's probably the best overall catcher on the team in all facets of the game
    Naahh..can't be true. What is he better than Laird at? I don't expect Doumit to catch much at all, will PH and play some OF.

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    People continue to underrate Gattis defensively. If the Braves thought that he couldn't hack it behind the plate a greater attempt at retaining Mac would have been made.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Our AAA rotation will have five of these six: Hale, Thomas, Martin, Northcraft, Maya, Schlosser. When you look at it this way, you see we are not giving up much in the way of AAA depth by trading Gilmartin. We traded away from a position where we have a lot of depth. Our pen in AAA is very strong too.

    Gilmartin is a decent prospect. I think he'll be a 4th or 5th starter someday. But I don't think it was going to be with the Braves. Too much competition.

    Gotta figure Graham starts in Gwinnett as well.
    Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...

    Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?

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    Though he's not considered a strong defensive catcher, Doumit would give the Braves a cheap option behind the dish in the wake of Brian McCann's departure to the Yankees. Doumit is owed jusr $3.5MM in 2014. The Braves have Evan Gattis, Gerald Laird and Christian Bethancourt as internal options at catcher, but Bethancourt could require more seasoning, Laird is a backup and Gattis has serious OBP concerns. He alsos struggled against right-handed pitching (.236/.284/.473), which is where Doumit exceeds (.270/.330/.454).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Krgrecw View Post
    Though he's not considered a strong defensive catcher, Doumit would give the Braves a cheap option behind the dish in the wake of Brian McCann's departure to the Yankees. Doumit is owed jusr $3.5MM in 2014. The Braves have Evan Gattis, Gerald Laird and Christian Bethancourt as internal options at catcher, but Bethancourt could require more seasoning, Laird is a backup and Gattis has serious OBP concerns. He alsos struggled against right-handed pitching (.236/.284/.473), which is where Doumit exceeds (.270/.330/.454).
    thought Doumit has stated he doesn't want to catch at all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Krgrecw View Post
    Though he's not considered a strong defensive catcher, Doumit would give the Braves a cheap option behind the dish in the wake of Brian McCann's departure to the Yankees. Doumit is owed jusr $3.5MM in 2014. The Braves have Evan Gattis, Gerald Laird and Christian Bethancourt as internal options at catcher, but Bethancourt could require more seasoning, Laird is a backup and Gattis has serious OBP concerns. He alsos struggled against right-handed pitching (.236/.284/.473), which is where Doumit exceeds (.270/.330/.454).
    In what world is a 757 OPS struggling and a 784 OPS exceeding? And saying he has OBP concerns when comparing him to Doumit is just being lazy. 48 ISO for Gattis and 60 for Doumit. It all stems from Gattis' low average and his insanely low 248 BABIP against righties. That will change and this his avg/obp will take a pretty big jump when it does.

    Doumit is here for the bench and he will should do a pretty good job of it.

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    I like the trade, solid bench player and the Braves have a wealth of pitchers in the minors...just curious and for debate where do ya'll think each one of these guys will start this year and where they project to in the majors

    Sims
    Graham
    Hursh
    Cody Martin
    Northcraft
    Luis Merejo
    Juan Jaime
    Mark Lamm
    Ian Thomas
    David Hale

    obviously some of these guys are a few years away, but arguably all of them are better prospects than Gilmartin

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    Quote Originally Posted by steveAKAslick View Post
    I like the trade, solid bench player and the Braves have a wealth of pitchers in the minors...just curious and for debate where do ya'll think each one of these guys will start this year and where they project to in the majors

    Sims
    Graham
    Hursh
    Cody Martin
    Northcraft
    Luis Merejo
    Juan Jaime
    Mark Lamm
    Ian Thomas
    David Hale

    obviously some of these guys are a few years away, but arguably all of them are better prospects than Gilmartin
    Hale, Thomas, Martin, Northcraft, Jaime and Lamm should be in AAA.

    Graham in AA.

    Hursh, Sims in High A.

    Merejo would have been in Low A, but had TJ surgery and will miss most or all of the season.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KeithLockhart View Post
    The Braves can say Gattis is their guy, but that doesn't mean he can't be traded especially he brings more value in a trade than most of the guys we have not named Heyward. And you could make the argument because he is under control longer and plays a premium offensive position at C that he has more trade value than Heyward because Hey's due for free agency in a few years.
    What type of liquor did you hit up? Gattis may not be in the top 10 most valuable trade pieces.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Krgrecw View Post
    I Wouldn't be surprised if Doumit wasnt the starter. He had a down year. He's not the best, but he's probably the best overall catcher on the team in all facets of the game
    Do what? Not that Gattis and Laird are great, but while they are bad defensively, Doumit is on a whole new level of bad.

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    Quote Originally Posted by skillet View Post
    Why would you expect him to duplicate his 2011 (1.6) and 2012 (1.4) WAR's but not last year's (0.1) and 2010's (0.3)? Probably the most fair or accurate way to predict 2014 would be to average the four years together which would be (0.85) minus the (0.50) we will be paying him which provides surplus value of 0.35 WAR. Given your analysis that someone of Gilmartin's ilk is probably worth 0.5 - 1.0 WAR, the middle of that is 0.75 WAR which would mean we traded Gilmartin for roughly 50 cents on the dollar. Does it help both clubs? Yes. But we should have gotten more than one year of Doumit for Gilmartin.
    Your question brings up an interesting question about projections and projections systems. Most systems take a weighted average of the past three years. My general observation is the weights tend to give too much weight to the last year, particularly for players in mid-career. For younger players (under 25) and older players (over 35) it is appropriate to give more weight to the last year because those are the parts of a player's career where large changes in underlying abilities often take place.

    Anyhow my way of doing things for a player in mid-career (age 25-35) is to look at their last three years and throw out their best year and worst year. In effect I pick their middle year out of the last three for making a projection. I'll do a little data mining and cite Shane Victorino as Exhibit A for the desirability of doing this. He had a down year in 2012. The approach outlined above indicated he would rebound in 2013. Of course, he did a bit more than just rebound. He overperformed.

    Anyhow, Doumit's middle-year suggests about 1.5 WAR in 2014.

    I realize this reflects my own idiosyncratic quick-and-dirty way of doing player projections. ymmv

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    Quote Originally Posted by steveAKAslick View Post
    I like the trade, solid bench player and the Braves have a wealth of pitchers in the minors...just curious and for debate where do ya'll think each one of these guys will start this year and where they project to in the majors

    Sims
    Graham
    Hursh
    Cody Martin
    Northcraft
    Luis Merejo
    Juan Jaime
    Mark Lamm
    Ian Thomas
    David Hale

    obviously some of these guys are a few years away, but arguably all of them are better prospects than Gilmartin

    At this point could Sims be projected as a future ace and #1? What about the rest of the guys 1-5 starters, relievers, closers?

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    Quote Originally Posted by steveAKAslick View Post
    At this point could Sims be projected as a future ace and #1? What about the rest of the guys 1-5 starters, relievers, closers?
    The pros who do projections generally avoid tagging a kid in A ball as future #1. At this point I think most of them will say Sims has a chance to be a #2 or #3. The guys in our system who are more likely to someday be a #1 are those who have already done something in the majors-Teheran, Minor, Wood, Medlen. They are relatively young and their 2013 performances were not far from being elite. Shave a little off the walk rate or bump up the strikeout rate a little and they are there. Beachy was also not far from being elite when he had his elbow injury. I think people have forgotten how good he was.

    I'd say the other guys on your list are pretty unlikely to become #1s. Graham has the biggest upside. But even before he developed the shoulder problem he was a very good but not elite prospect.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 12-19-2013 at 09:11 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    The pros who do projections generally avoid tagging a kid in A ball as future #1. At this point I think most of them will say Sims has a chance to be a #2 or #3. The guys in our system who are more likely to someday be a #1 are those who have already done something in the majors-Teheran, Minor, Wood, Medlen. They are relatively young and their 2013 performances were not far from being elite. Shave a little off the walk rate or bump up the strikeout rate a little and they are there. Beachy was also not far from being elite when he had his elbow injury. I think people have forgotten how good he was.

    I'd say the other guys on your list are pretty unlikely to become #1s. Graham has the biggest upside. But even before he developed the shoulder problem he was a very good but not elite prospect.
    While other GMs are spending like Slim Thug in a strip club, I think we should consider locking up those four guys with long term deals buying out arb/FA 1-2 years and seeing if we can't lock down The Next Great Atlanta Pitching Staff.

    Apparently Heyward, Freeman and Simmons won't take our money. Too much possible upside from the Yanks and Dodgers. But pitchers can always get hurt, so maybe they'll be amenable to some Chris Sale-style deals. More of a gamble than locking up position players, I know, but they've all got ace potential.

    Edit: those four = Medlen, Minor, Teheran, Beachy. Maybe Wood, too, but I need to see a little more.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GovClintonTyree View Post
    While other GMs are spending like Slim Thug in a strip club, I think we should consider locking up those four guys with long term deals buying out arb/FA 1-2 years and seeing if we can't lock down The Next Great Atlanta Pitching Staff.

    Apparently Heyward, Freeman and Simmons won't take our money. Too much possible upside from the Yanks and Dodgers. But pitchers can always get hurt, so maybe they'll be amenable to some Chris Sale-style deals. More of a gamble than locking up position players, I know, but they've all got ace potential.

    Edit: those four = Medlen, Minor, Teheran, Beachy. Maybe Wood, too, but I need to see a little more.
    The trouble is while I would be willing to bet that one of our 2014 starters will take that step forward and become an ace, I don't have much confidence in predicting which one it will be. I'd rather not play roulette with pitcher contracts, especially with Sims, Graham, Cabrera, Hursh and some of the others coming down the pipeline.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    The pros who do projections generally avoid tagging a kid in A ball as future #1. At this point I think most of them will say Sims has a chance to be a #2 or #3. The guys in our system who are more likely to someday be a #1 are those who have already done something in the majors-Teheran, Minor, Wood, Medlen. They are relatively young and their 2013 performances were not far from being elite. Shave a little off the walk rate or bump up the strikeout rate a little and they are there. Beachy was also not far from being elite when he had his elbow injury. I think people have forgotten how good he was.

    I'd say the other guys on your list are pretty unlikely to become #1s. Graham has the biggest upside. But even before he developed the shoulder problem he was a very good but not elite prospect.
    I follow the minors relatively well, was just curious as to what others thoughts were as pitching has always been a Braves hallmark. All these guys definitely made Gilmartin expendable, rarely do the Braves trade a pitcher who ends up being great which is why I think the Doumit deal was solid. Off the top of my head Wainwright is the only one I could see them truly regretting, correct me if anymore can be thought of. And yes I totally agree on Beachy, hopefully he can regain some of that form. I know Tommy John surgery is unpredictable, but it blew my mind when Beachy had to have his. Dudes mechanics seemed spot on and he was/has such a smooth delivery, nothing violent whatsoever.

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    Quote Originally Posted by yeezus View Post
    14, thanks.
    I don't read any "geekball" sites and I read zero blogs. Not good form to go past blah blah blah.
    The thing is, the Braves still have a ton of young pitching stockpiled. It's not like trading just Gilmartin depleted them. There is still a lot.
    I referenced studs (and didn't say anyone else did) because guys like Gilmartin are always around. We've had countless guys with his ability and ceiling never pan out. Guys ranked as low as he is rarely hit their ceiling (prospects in general rarely hit their ceilings), but guys like Gilmartin frequently flame out and never contribute. We needed a bench bat, and Doumit could be a pretty darn good one.
    Did you see me posting that Gilmartin was destined for stardom or that there was anything wrong with the trade? Didn't think so. You picked a debate/argument over basically nothing.

    Big however here though. You and the poster, quoted below, were probably still in diapers when Bruce Chen was just coming up in the late 90's. So neither of you would remember. The org hyped him to they extreme. They gave up on him, and included him. It's not even worth looking up to see who was included in the deal (or comparing WAR). Point is that, no, he never became an ace, but here he's had a respectable enough major career after all these years.


    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    Feliz is a RP, and Harrison isnt much better over what we have right now.

    Who didnt pitch much last year due to shoulder injuries.

    So yeah, Wainwright is pretty much the only P we've given away that has hurt us all that much.
    Thanks for sharing all that earth-shaking news. Nobody would've ever known without your input.

    Incidentally, Felix could've gone either way as starter or closer.
    Last edited by Knucksie; 12-19-2013 at 10:02 AM.

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