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Thread: Official 2017 Trade Deadilne Thread

  1. #241
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    Dickey's been fine. Like any knuckleballer, if it's not working he will get shelled and if it is working he will be near unhittable. Hope Garcia turns it back up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I've been thinking about where the team is going to be on the expected win curve in 2018. The consensus starting this year was 75-80 wins. Based upon first half performance, I've upgraded what I expect from Freeman, Inciarte and Flowers going forward and downgraded what I expect from Teheran. The net is a plus 4 WAR or so relative to the start of the year.

    The other thing that factors into 2018 is that we are spending 24.5M this year on salary to Garcia and Colon and getting very little in return. With that kind of money we should be able to buy a couple more wins.

    All told, I think we should be about 5 wins better in 2018 that the 75-80 win consensus we had at the start of the 2017 seasons.
    This off season will be the one to spend some resources addressing 3B. There is no reason not to have a 2+ WAR guy out there. Trade, sign, whatever.

    They will also need to add 1 SP who can be relied on to produce 2 WAR. It is important this pitcher isn't some 40+ year old guy ready to fall apart at any moment.

    The Braves can make those additions without trading anyone from the Top 6. Doing so will see the Braves go from 68 wins last year, to 75+ wins this year, to 80+ wins next year as is normal with a 5 year rebuild.

    By 2019 they will be ready to welcome Acuna to the OF, Albies will be settled at 2B, and guys like Wright, Soroka, and Allard will be ready to contribute to the rotation. That team will be good enough to win 85+ games. They will be good enough to win 85+ games for a 5-10 year period.

    This whole notion of rushing the rebuild needs to stop. The Braves are not special. Their circumstances are not unique. The FO is not singularly talented to rebuild faster. Rebuilds take 5 years, so they need to come to grips with that reality.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 06-28-2017 at 01:15 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    This whole notion of rushing the rebuild needs to stop. The Braves are not special. Their circumstances are not unique. The FO is not singularly talented to rebuild faster. Rebuilds take 5 years, so they need to come to grips with that reality.
    In most cases, I'd agree with you. But we did acquire Olivera in order to accelerate us a bit, and I'd say that has worked so far

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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    In most cases, I'd agree with you. But we did acquire Olivera in order to accelerate us a bit, and I'd say that has worked so far
    if we could just have a couple more like that...
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    if we could just have a couple more like that...
    Perhaps a Sean Newcomb for Pablo Sandoval swap could work?

  8. #246
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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    Perhaps a Sean Newcomb for Pablo Sandoval swap could work?
    Well, according to some Newcomb is only going to be a RP so may as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    Well, according to some Newcomb is only going to be a RP so may as well.
    And what would you call a 2 pitch guy with a 4 ERA? That's exactly what Newk will be if he can't develop that third pitch.

    BP is still very much in play for Newk.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    And what would you call a 2 pitch guy with a 4 ERA? That's exactly what Newk will be if he can't develop that third pitch.

    BP is still very much in play for Newk.
    A 2-pitch guy that pitches around a 4 ERA but eats innings isn't a bullpen guy.

    He's a #4/5 type and while he's cheap there is value in that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    This off season will be the one to spend some resources addressing 3B. There is no reason not to have a 2+ WAR guy out there. Trade, sign, whatever.

    They will also need to add 1 SP who can be relied on to produce 2 WAR. It is important this pitcher isn't some 40+ year old guy ready to fall apart at any moment.

    The Braves can make those additions without trading anyone from the Top 6. Doing so will see the Braves go from 68 wins last year, to 75+ wins this year, to 80+ wins next year as is normal with a 5 year rebuild.

    By 2019 they will be ready to welcome Acuna to the OF, Albies will be settled at 2B, and guys like Wright, Soroka, and Allard will be ready to contribute to the rotation. That team will be good enough to win 85+ games. They will be good enough to win 85+ games for a 5-10 year period.

    This whole notion of rushing the rebuild needs to stop. The Braves are not special. Their circumstances are not unique. The FO is not singularly talented to rebuild faster. Rebuilds take 5 years, so they need to come to grips with that reality.
    You were so mad about Swanson's promotion. Are you going to support Albies and Acuna coming up as younger players? Albies will have a ton more minor league at bats and likely better overall stats. Acuna might have better stats but he'll likely have a similar number of plate appearances.

    I also do not see who the guy is out there to man 3B or be that mid tier Vet. But those guys should exist.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Russ2dollas View Post
    You were so mad about Swanson's promotion. Are you going to support Albies and Acuna coming up as younger players? Albies will have a ton more minor league at bats and likely better overall stats. Acuna might have better stats but he'll likely have a similar number of plate appearances.

    I also do not see who the guy is out there to man 3B or be that mid tier Vet. But those guys should exist.
    I want to promote Albies during the middle of next season... after the 6 year cutoff at the very minimum (middle of April), and would support the super two cutoff (Middle of June)

    If the plan works, we should be a contender by 2019, in which case service clock discussions should be de-prioritized to winning. And if Acuna gives us the best chance to win, then he should be up

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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    I want to promote Albies during the middle of next season... after the 6 year cutoff at the very minimum (middle of April), and would support the super two cutoff (Middle of June)

    If the plan works, we should be a contender by 2019, in which case service clock discussions should be de-prioritized to winning. And if Acuna gives us the best chance to win, then he should be up
    This.

    But I would also hold Acuna down for a month in 2019 no matter what. He could be the most valuable player the Braves currently have, and that extra year of control could be worth $25M.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    I want to promote Albies during the middle of next season... after the 6 year cutoff at the very minimum (middle of April), and would support the super two cutoff (Middle of June)
    I'm not sure where I stand just yet, but I can't see Albies not being with the major league team to start next year. Now, if he doesn't get his overall numbers way up and show consistency the rest of the year, I'll want to give him more AAA time. I don't see the front office doing that, though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    I'm not sure where I stand just yet, but I can't see Albies not being with the major league team to start next year. Now, if he doesn't get his overall numbers way up and show consistency the rest of the year, I'll want to give him more AAA time. I don't see the front office doing that, though.
    I think he's young enough and hasn't proven enough yet to justify the call up.

    It'd be a different discussion if we OPSing 900+ right now, but as it stands, he's putting up solid, unspectacular numbers, and that's enough justification to NOT promote him (I recognize he is killing the ball right now)

    I doubt the FO sees it this way though as they had the same excuse with Dansby and chose to ignore it

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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    I want to promote Albies during the middle of next season... after the 6 year cutoff at the very minimum (middle of April), and would support the super two cutoff (Middle of June)

    If the plan works, we should be a contender by 2019, in which case service clock discussions should be de-prioritized to winning. And if Acuna gives us the best chance to win, then he should be up
    This makes sense from a management perspective, but it's horrifically unfair to Albies.

    I understand why they should do this as a Braves fan who wishes the best for the team (and ergo management). But as a baseball fan, I wish this **** wouldn't happen. I'm just not sure of a real solution other than starting a players clock in the minor leagues (say something like 8-10 year instead of the ML 6 years).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    This.

    But I would also hold Acuna down for a month in 2019 no matter what. He could be the most valuable player the Braves currently have, and that extra year of control could be worth $25M.
    I think you only need to hold him down 2 weeks, right? I would support holding him down 2 weeks even if we think we can contend. A month makes it a tougher decision.

    And yes, there's no reason to have Albies up to start next year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chop2chip View Post
    This makes sense from a management perspective, but it's horrifically unfair to Albies.

    I understand why they should do this as a Braves fan who wishes the best for the team (and ergo management). But as a baseball fan, I wish this **** wouldn't happen. I'm just not sure of a real solution other than starting a players clock in the minor leagues (say something like 8-10 year instead of the ML 6 years).
    Pretty simple fix, IMO - just make it so that if you're on the MLB roster for more than, say, 35 games, that counts as a service year.

    Making it so near to an entire year is pretty dumb.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    I think he's young enough and hasn't proven enough yet to justify the call up.

    It'd be a different discussion if we OPSing 900+ right now, but as it stands, he's putting up solid, unspectacular numbers, and that's enough justification to NOT promote him (I recognize he is killing the ball right now)

    I doubt the FO sees it this way though as they had the same excuse with Dansby and chose to ignore it
    I don't think the John's will wait b/c they think we are about to be good.

    And I do think you need some time to work things out. IF you you want to be good in 2019 then Swanson and Albies and some of the pitchers need to get a bunch of firsts out of the way if you are going to count on them.

    That said, I'd consider going Comargo/Jace or just Comargo for a year or less to optimize Albies' clock. I'd even consider a 1 year deal for Phillips if it's a single digit deal.

    Same thing with Acuna. The best thing Neck might do for us is block Acuna next year. It just seems like Acuna is destined to make his debut next year and I don't like it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Preacher View Post
    A 2-pitch guy that pitches around a 4 ERA but eats innings isn't a bullpen guy.

    He's a #4/5 type and while he's cheap there is value in that.
    Did I say he wasn't valuable? Or did I say the BP is still an option?

    Further, a #4/5 is typically worth ~2 WAR, same as a legit BP arm. So yes, they are effectively the same thing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chop2chip View Post
    This makes sense from a management perspective, but it's horrifically unfair to Albies.

    I understand why they should do this as a Braves fan who wishes the best for the team (and ergo management). But as a baseball fan, I wish this **** wouldn't happen. I'm just not sure of a real solution other than starting a players clock in the minor leagues (say something like 8-10 year instead of the ML 6 years).
    Again, Albies isn't lighting th world on fire, so you can easily make the argument he hasn't yet earned the promotion.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    Pretty simple fix, IMO - just make it so that if you're on the MLB roster for more than, say, 35 games, that counts as a service year.

    Making it so near to an entire year is pretty dumb.
    You still create an incentive to hold players like Albies down a year if the team isn't competitive. This would effectively kill the the mid-season promotion of any top prospect regardless of injury, performance, etc.

    It solves some issues but creates others.

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