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Thread: 2018 Offseason And Targets

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    You'd be surprised how small the correlation is between regular season success and playoff success.

    https://www.principallyuncertain.com...ffs-crapshoot/

    So like I said, the goal should be to make the playoffs because everything that happens after that is largely random.
    I doubt CrazyDerp will admit he once again has no idea what he's talking about though.

    The key takeaway from the article is what everyone already knew:

    However, teams with a higher payroll do tend to be the ones that make the playoffs in the first place, with the average playoff team spending 0.55 standard deviations above the league average payroll for that year. So while cold hard cash doesn’t guarantee glory, it does help buy a chance at it. More lottery tickets generally equals more championships.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Franmil is certainly the guy to be targeting, but he is very hard to place a value on. Will the hit tool allow his power to play up enough to make up for his below average OF defense?

    Renfroe is another guy who could be a decent addition, but not a true difference maker in an everyday role.

    Both guys bat RHed, and both guys hit the ball harder than anyone currently on the roster. I wouldn't give up too much for either though.

    The other option is Meyers and the 3/60 he's owed from 2020-2022.

    I think I just talked myself out of acquiring a Padre OFer.
    Margot.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Julio is available
    Not sure Julio for Myers gets us very far.
    Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...

    Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?

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    There’s a rumor the braves offered Machado a 3 year $90m deal...but took the offer off the table just before he signed
    Get off my lawn!

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    Quote Originally Posted by JxnMissFan View Post
    Peller is truly the dumbest GM in the game. Signing Machado locked in third place in the NL West. Lol

    Meyers is still cheap this year but in 2020 Meyers, Hosmer and Machado will account for close to 75 million in payroll. I’m wondering how Peller will fill out the team.

    In three years Peller will be begging teams to take Machado salary relief.
    How dumb is he? Could AA convince him Teheran would do well in their park?

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanforlife88 View Post
    There’s a rumor the braves offered Machado a 3 year $90m deal...but took the offer off the table just before he signed
    actually i'm hearing the Padres deal is on hold...the Braves just improved their offer
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanforlife88 View Post
    There’s a rumor the braves offered Machado a 3 year $90m deal...but took the offer off the table just before he signed
    Not that I believe it, but it would make sense if true to send same offer to Harper

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    You'd be surprised how small the correlation is between regular season success and playoff success.

    https://www.principallyuncertain.com...ffs-crapshoot/

    So like I said, the goal should be to make the playoffs because everything that happens after that is largely random.
    Not going to read all of that to see if they address these questions but:

    1. Regular season and playoff involve very different competition.

    2. There are fewer very high win teams in playoffs than moderate win teams.

    3. Playoff teams often have added pieces to team that may make them better than a season win total would suggest. The marlins a couple of times come to mind. Wild care team with big deadline adds.

    4. The best team has the best chance of winning a single event even if it goes the other way. Always better to be the house even if you don’t beat everyone that sits down.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    actually i'm hearing the Padres deal is on hold...the Braves just improved their offer
    3-year $90,000,000.50

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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    Machado's one of the best players in baseball, he deserves 10/300.
    I would expect Machado to generate about 35 WAR over the next 10 years. The Pods are paying 8.6M per win. That's pretty much the going rate this off-season.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Not going to read all of that to see if they address these questions but:

    1. Regular season and playoff involve very different competition.

    2. There are fewer very high win teams in playoffs than moderate win teams.

    3. Playoff teams often have added pieces to team that may make them better than a season win total would suggest. The marlins a couple of times come to mind. Wild care team with big deadline adds.

    4. The best team has the best chance of winning a single event even if it goes the other way. Always better to be the house even if you don’t beat everyone that sits down.
    Hey guys, I didn't bother to read it, but here are my counterpoints!

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    Not a counter point.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanforlife88 View Post
    There’s a rumor the braves offered Machado a 3 year $90m deal...but took the offer off the table just before he signed
    I raw that on Reddit, but I think this is spin city by the FO to make it look like we did make an effort to upgrade the roster.

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    How dumb is he? Could AA convince him Teheran would do well in their park?
    Since they don’t need a shortstop now I would offer Teheran (Braves pay all but 500k of salary) plus Allard for Tatis.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chico View Post
    I raw that on Reddit, but I think this is spin city by the FO to make it look like we did make an effort to upgrade the roster.
    Offering 3/90 when the winning bid was 10/300 doesn't qualify as trying...it would be a waste of Machado's time to even respond to it.

    If they are going to lie, they should at least make the offer seem like a reasonable alternative...higher AAV for a shorter term.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Offering 3/90 when the winning bid was 10/300 doesn't qualify as trying...it would be a waste of Machado's time to even respond to it.

    If they are going to lie, they should at least make the offer seem like a reasonable alternative...higher AAV for a shorter term.
    It's a spin job by somebody. A 3/90 bid only makes sense if you think he's getting low AAV but high year offers which has been speculated on by the slow market. That said the Braves would have only had the 30 million to offer him before they signed JD when any talk of that was nonsense.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JxnMissFan View Post
    Since they don’t need a shortstop now I would offer Teheran (Braves pay all but 500k of salary) plus Allard for Tatis.
    That is not how things work. The friars won’t give a guy away because he is blocked at one position.
    Coppy

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    My brain is still trying to understand how SD went from being a bottom 10 payroll team to giving Hosmer $144M and then Machado the largest FA contract in the history of MLB.

    Meanwhile, the Braves are crying poor 2 years after opening up a brand new Braves City.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    My brain is still trying to understand how SD went from being a bottom 10 payroll team to giving Hosmer $144M and then Machado the largest FA contract in the history of MLB.

    Meanwhile, the Braves are crying poor 2 years after opening up a brand new Braves City.
    Simple. Machado will be playing for the Yankees in 3 years when the Padres fail. It's the Marlins Model.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanforlife88 View Post
    There’s a rumor the braves offered Machado a 3 year $90m deal...but took the offer off the table just before he signed

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