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Thread: Soroka and Gohara

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    He’s getting good results off a sometimes 90 Mph fastball and there is a good chance that’s smoke and mirrors.

    My guess is the period you carved out will be about his best stretch of the season and his era will be closer to 4.5 than his current 4.0.

    I have no Interest in paying him 12 m next year but no helping that now, probably.
    He's throwing the fastball much less and relying more on his offspeed pitches and location. He's not just getting by with it either. He's made some good hitting teams look foolish.

    And he's outpitched his FIP by over a half a run over his career. No reason to expect that to change anytime soon. From a stats standpoint, he aligns with career averages except for walks.

    He's an asset at this time as a middle of the rotation pitcher. Currently tied for the team lead in quality starts with 7. If we decided to trade him right now, teams would easily take him and his contract. On the trade market there isn't exactly an overbundance of quality pitchers that are as durable as he is. It would be dumb for us to trade him during a playoff race. Our chances of replacing his production are slim. I'm all for trading him in the offseason and finding a veteran option on a shorter deal.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Freshmaker View Post
    Only one of Gohara and Soroka can be in the rotation unless we go to a 6 man. We've got Folty/Newk/Teheran/McCarthy locked in. Sanchez is only getting a spot start til one of them gets back
    I’m thinking McCarthy has some soreness that will see him conveniently hit the DL in due time.
    "For all his tattooings he was on the whole a clean, comely looking cannibal."

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    Quote Originally Posted by jpx7 View Post
    I’m thinking McCarthy has some soreness that will see him conveniently hit the DL in due time.
    I think he will have a bruised ego for sure by 530 est

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    He's good/decent every other year, and horrible every other year. This is the turn for a decent year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    I think he will have a bruised ego for sure by 530 est
    Wrong again

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    Looking at McCarthy's starts.

    6+ runs in 3 starts
    3 runs or less in the rest of them

    For a 4-5 type starter, not too bad.

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    Funny enough, I think the bigger issue with dealing JT is no one will offer much. Kinda like with Markakis the last few years, by the time a team takes on his contract, they won't offer much more. If we are in the playoff hunt, we will not want to trade a solid player just to get back a prospect that will not even make our top20.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Eyeman View Post
    Funny enough, I think the bigger issue with dealing JT is no one will offer much. Kinda like with Markakis the last few years, by the time a team takes on his contract, they won't offer much more. If we are in the playoff hunt, we will not want to trade a solid player just to get back a prospect that will not even make our top20.
    The last sentence is most important part.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    He's throwing the fastball much less and relying more on his offspeed pitches and location. He's not just getting by with it either. He's made some good hitting teams look foolish.

    And he's outpitched his FIP by over a half a run over his career. No reason to expect that to change anytime soon. From a stats standpoint, he aligns with career averages except for walks.

    He's an asset at this time as a middle of the rotation pitcher. Currently tied for the team lead in quality starts with 7. If we decided to trade him right now, teams would easily take him and his contract. On the trade market there isn't exactly an overbundance of quality pitchers that are as durable as he is. It would be dumb for us to trade him during a playoff race. Our chances of replacing his production are slim. I'm all for trading him in the offseason and finding a veteran option on a shorter deal.
    The only thing wrong with Julion is that he has never lived up to the expectations he created as a young pitcher coming up. Perhaps instead of seeing that 5.02 ERA the year before he came up and saying, "Wow, that's a result of the Braves trying to alter his delivery," we should have said, "hey, those are the consequences of having a good-not-great FA and insisting on living upstairs."

    'Cause if there's one thing about Julion to really dislike, that's it. He's tough, durable, smart, usually has command and competes like a mofo.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Deester11 View Post
    The last sentence is most important part.
    Not much surplus value at this point.

    (See? The Gov can be a saber guy, too.)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Eyeman View Post
    Funny enough, I think the bigger issue with dealing JT is no one will offer much. Kinda like with Markakis the last few years, by the time a team takes on his contract, they won't offer much more. If we are in the playoff hunt, we will not want to trade a solid player just to get back a prospect that will not even make our top20.
    Everyone is talking like the Braves have seven starters.

    If so why would you want to pay a 4th or 5th starter like Teheran 12m?

    He’s been pretty mediocre in what three of the last four seasons?

    His velocity is steadily decreasing and he’s bad at home which is kind of a problem.

    I’d give him away personality.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Everyone is talking like the Braves have seven starters.

    If so why would you want to pay a 4th or 5th starter like Teheran 12m?

    He’s been pretty mediocre in what three of the last four seasons?

    His velocity is steadily decreasing and he’s bad at home which is kind of a problem.

    I’d give him away personality.
    Then that's a good reason you're not a GM. Neither are any of us but still....

    Julio is solid and should remain a Brave unless they get an ace. Otherwise keep wishing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    Looking at McCarthy's starts.

    6+ runs in 3 starts
    3 runs or less in the rest of them

    For a 4-5 type starter, not too bad.
    McCarthy's been solid for us for us for sure. I'd love to see an all-youngster rotation, but if we're going to the postseason you keep him in it IMO for the "experience and leadership." If we start to fall out of contention then he's the first guy to get shipped out

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  20. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by GovClintonTyree View Post
    He's tough, durable, smart, usually has command and competes like a mofo.
    The last two seasons he usually doesn't have command, which along with his declining velocity is most of the problem with him. It's been pretty simple for him during his career, when he's had a walk rate around 2 per 9 he's had excellent seasons, when he's above 3 he's had bad seasons. This year he's right at 4 per 9 so he's getting smacked around.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    Looking at McCarthy's starts.

    6+ runs in 3 starts
    3 runs or less in the rest of them

    For a 4-5 type starter, not too bad.
    2018 version of Sugar Shane Reynolds.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    2018 version of Sugar Shane Reynolds.
    Get it right 50

    Sugar SHAME Reynolds.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Eyeman View Post
    Funny enough, I think the bigger issue with dealing JT is no one will offer much. Kinda like with Markakis the last few years, by the time a team takes on his contract, they won't offer much more. If we are in the playoff hunt, we will not want to trade a solid player just to get back a prospect that will not even make our top20.
    I think the opposite actually. The pitching market now and in the off-season is going to be barren. Any available quality pitchers will likely be snatched up quickly and likely be overpaid. JT optimistically is good for 4-5 WAR over the next 2 years. With his contract, he should have roughly 20 million in surplus value. That should net one 50 FV player (or a player roughly among the top 100-50 prospects) and some change (a relief prospect or AAAA player.)

    If you think JT is more of a 3-4 WAR player over the next 2 years, then he's probably worth one or two FV 45 players (not top 100 prospects).

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    With all the pitching on the horizon I don't see the point in holding onto Julio anymore. Now is the time

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    The Braves were always going to sign an older pitcher to fill out the rotation. Julio may as well be that guy because nobody is giving the Braves anything of consequence for him.

    If Julio is the #5 SP next year the Braves will be in pretty good shape.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    The Braves were always going to sign an older pitcher to fill out the rotation. Julio may as well be that guy because nobody is giving the Braves anything of consequence for him.

    If Julio is the #5 SP next year the Braves will be in pretty good shape.
    Which is totally the point. Long term, he's served the Braves well and will move on when it's s time.

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