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Thread: 2015 DRAFT SIGNING THREAD

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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    Really? Do you not pay attention to how prevalent TJS is? Would you it just rather happen to our picks 3 years after they sign, right before they are about to make it to the show or already in the show? That's silly. You can't be scared off by TJS when you look at the success rate of the surgery and it seems about half the pitcher are likely to have the procedure sometime anyways. Dude has an electric arm. He's not LOOGY in waiting and the Braves hope he can be a starter.
    I'm going off the pre-draft comments that the Braves weren't going to draft anyone with injury issues. I guess that was a smokescreen. I'm not scared off by TJS, I'm just a bit surprised that we're taking a guy not with a possible injury, but with a real injury. We'll see how it turns out. I'm just surprised they paid him slot value more than anything else.

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    Moore came in $144,700 under slot, so that needs to be subtracted from the $230,000.

    I haven't seen figures, but my guess is the JC guys we took in the 11th, 12th, and 13th probably were over slot as well. Has anyone seen figures on these guys?
    Probably. Which means someone(s) will have to get squeezed a little and take less than slot. Maybe Soroka?

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Probably. Which means someone(s) will have to get squeezed a little and take less than slot. Maybe Soroka?
    I have a difficult time figuring out who it will be. My guess is Allard and Herbert are going to be at slot. If I had to guess between Soroka and Riley, I'd guess Riley. I thought it would be Minter.

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    Why would Moore take so little to sign??

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    Quote Originally Posted by Diesel View Post
    Why would Moore take so little to sign??
    Didn't have an option and probably has ties to active service.
    Ivermectin Man

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    Quote Originally Posted by Diesel View Post
    Why would Moore take so little to sign??
    He is a Naval Academy graduate and will only be pitching for a month before beginning to fulfill his military commitment. It was pretty much a courtesy pick for a Georgia kid. They did the same thing with Matt Tellor last year (although Matt wasn't from Georgia). Not a rare occurrence.

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    Tellor was a senior. And they get paid very small bonuses due to a lack of bargaining power.

    Moore is a senior on top of having the military commitment.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    He is a Naval Academy graduate and will only be pitching for a month before beginning to fulfill his military commitment. It was pretty much a courtesy pick for a Georgia kid. They did the same thing with Matt Tellor last year (although Matt wasn't from Georgia). Not a rare occurrence.
    I understand "courtesy pick" deep into the draft, but he was a 10th round selection! So obviously they expect him to complete his military commitment (2 yrs??) and then resume his baseball career.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Diesel View Post
    I understand "courtesy pick" deep into the draft, but he was a 10th round selection! So obviously they expect him to complete his military commitment (2 yrs??) and then resume his baseball career.
    I doubt it. Just a skipped pick basically where we could allocate his funds across other rounds.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diesel View Post
    I understand "courtesy pick" deep into the draft, but he was a 10th round selection! So obviously they expect him to complete his military commitment (2 yrs??) and then resume his baseball career.
    Under the new rules, you'll see picks like this--usually college seniors--who will sign below slot so that money can be used to go above the $100,000 limit past the tenth round. Braves have already done that with 20th round pick Hellinger. It gets complicated, but in order to take a couple of relatively high-ceiling high schoolers past the 10th round and hopefully sign them, you have to go below slot on a couple of guys in the first ten rounds.

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    NL Rookie of the Year dak's Avatar
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    It's early yet on the signing front, but the Braves look like they've done pretty well with their Day 3 guys. They've been able to sign some interesting talents to over-slot deals. I'm still lukewarm on what they did on Day 1 and Day 2 outside of Allard. On the positive side, they identified an organizational strategy (developing high-upside power pitching) and executed the strategy pretty consistently. I would have preferred to see more balance b/w hitting and pitching, but I'm not overly concerned about that.

    My biggest beef is the number of "reach" picks when compared to the loose consensus of industry experts. These early picks are important, and as many as 4 of the top 6 picks were considered reaches, to varying degrees. So far, it's not clear that any of those picks will be under-slot. I'm more or less a novice on the Rule IV draft, but I can't escape the feeling that we could have / should have emerged with at least one more quality player on Day 1 or Day 2 by waiting out someone like Minter another round or two.

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    Callis reporting figures for signees round 11-13

    Grayson Jones - 150k
    Justin Ellison - 110k
    Chase Johnson-Mullins - 125k

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    Director of Minor League Reports rico43's Avatar
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    Callis has confirmed that Herbert, Braves have agreed to full-slot deal.

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    Quote Originally Posted by alwilliamsv View Post
    Callis reporting figures for signees round 11-13

    Grayson Jones - 150k
    Justin Ellison - 110k
    Chase Johnson-Mullins - 125k
    So far we are about $170K above slot.

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    90% of the players drafted this year will never see the majors. The rankings beyond the first round vary highly from team to team. Every year the Braves select players about 20 spots lower in the "experts" rankings. Why is it all of a sudden such a big deal? Players like Freeman and Kimbrel were reaches too. The MLB draft has a lot of complexity to it compared to other sports.
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    Quote Originally Posted by cajunrevenge View Post
    90% of the players drafted this year will never see the majors. The rankings beyond the first round vary highly from team to team. Every year the Braves select players about 20 spots lower in the "experts" rankings. Why is it all of a sudden such a big deal? Players like Freeman and Kimbrel were reaches too. The MLB draft has a lot of complexity to it compared to other sports.
    This is the same problem that happens when you rely on one particular pundit's Top 100 list IMO.

    For example, Keith Law thinks we got good value in Herbert since he had Lucas at #45 on his list. If you look at BA's list, he was "acceptable" - they had him at #52 on their board. Callis and Mayo would think he was a bit of a stretch since they had him at #69, but Kiley McDaniel is probably the only one who would probably call Herbert a "reach" - he barely cracked Kiley's Top 100.

    If the entire group sat around a table and was forced to come up with one opinion of the pick, I'd imagine they'd be fine with it. Of course, our scouts likely saw him more often than any of them.
    Last edited by clvclv; 06-17-2015 at 05:55 AM.
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    NL Rookie of the Year dak's Avatar
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    Another thing to consider is that teams can go up to 5% over their pool without losing future draft picks as a penalty. There is a 75% tax on this overage, but that should not be a deterrent for the Braves, IMO. This amounts to ~$500k of room for us given the ~10m pool this year.

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    NL Rookie of the Year dak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    This is the same problem that happens when you rely on one particular pundit's Top 100 list IMO.

    For example, Keith Law thinks we got good value in Herbert since he had Lucas at #45 on his list. If you look at BA's list, he was "acceptable" - they had him at #52 on their board. Callis and Mayo would think he was a bit of a stretch since they had him at #69, but Kiley McDaniel is probably the only one who would probably call Herbert a "reach" - he barely cracked Kiley's Top 100.

    If the entire group sat around a table and was forced to come up with one opinion of the pick, I'd imagine they'd be fine with it. Of course, our scouts likely saw him more often than any of them.
    Yep, the opinions of "draft experts" are not a perfect read on the market, but it's the best barometer we have. I was fine with the value of the Allard and Herbert picks. I also would not have found it surprising or concerning if one or two picks on the first couple of days were viewed as reaches. When it's 4 of the top 6 though, it makes me nervous that we did not maximize value.

    If the inverse were true and we picked and signed several guys that the experts thought should have gone earlier, I have little doubt that many of us (myself included) would have lauded Bridges and Clark for getting great value.

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    I believe I saw that the Braves drafts from 2010 - 2014 produced the second most ML players in all of baseball.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dak View Post
    Yep, the opinions of "draft experts" are not a perfect read on the market, but it's the best barometer we have. I was fine with the value of the Allard and Herbert picks. I also would not have found it surprising or concerning if one or two picks on the first couple of days were viewed as reaches. When it's 4 of the top 6 though, it makes me nervous that we did not maximize value.

    If the inverse were true and we picked and signed several guys that the experts thought should have gone earlier, I have little doubt that many of us (myself included) would have lauded Bridges and Clark for getting great value.
    This is where I disagree. All due respect to these guys - they only see some of these kids 2 or 3 times maximum, and typically only at showcase events. They compile notes and talk to people who have seen them much more, but if the kid has a bad event while they're there it's tough to overcome that since that's the performance Callis, etc. sees with his own eyes. I give them credit since they don't often completely discount the reports they get from others and drop a kid from their lists based strictly on what they see once or twice, but they will all tell you that scouts may be saying this and that but this is what they saw in their limited look(s). I liken those guys to good National Crosscheckers - their job is to go see the names they're getting glowing reviews about from the scouts that see them regularly and offer their opinion as well.

    The Braves have generally operated the same way - sending differing levels of Crosscheckers out to see kids in person after our scouts have seen them several times. The difference in the way our system has typically operated under JS/Bobby is that they tend to trust the local/area scouts more than most organizations - they lean heavily on the Crosscheckers, but the Crosscheckers have always been willing to defer to the scouts who have seen the player regularly and more often when that scout has a real conviction about a particular player.

    Callis and Mayo are usually a lot like our Crosscheckers - they'll more often than not go out of their way to mention "this is what I saw, but I've seen multiple reports from folks who have seen them more often that reflect this kid in a better light".

    I usually use the major pundits' Top 100/Top 250/Top 500/ whatever lists as a "jumping off point" - these are names you NEED to be familiar with, but not exactly a solid reflection of some of their talents because they haven't seen them regularly.
    Last edited by clvclv; 06-17-2015 at 09:07 AM.
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