Very few if any players should ever be off the table. If you can get returns like the Braves got for their players this offseason then you would not be doing your job as a GM by not considering them.
Very few if any players should ever be off the table. If you can get returns like the Braves got for their players this offseason then you would not be doing your job as a GM by not considering them.
Natural Immunity Croc
Let's pretend someone is really desperate for pitching at the deadline, let's say that team is the Jays and they offer us Donaldson and Pompey for him, would you say no? I'm not saying we should actively shop him, but if someone comes in with an offer way over value, we have to take it. We can't afford mediocrity.Originally Posted by rico43
Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg
My only point during the off-season is that the team had come to a crossroads with two stars on the precipice of free agency and two huge contracts to non-performing players (one who was no longer in a Braves' uniform). I think a plausible case can be made that we could have patched things up for one more run, but I think everyone has to admit that the margin for error wasn't that great and we had to replace 400 quality IP. One cannot predict injuries, but with Minor likely sidelined for the year, Walden out until the All-Star break (or thereabouts), Chris Johnson sidelined (not that big a loss in some respects, but would have had to contribute in a status quo scenario), La Stella being Mr. Ouch once again (would have been a bigger setback than Chris Johnson, but would have been relied upon). Melvin, Jr., still hasn't laced up the spikes this year (which again wouldn't have been a big loss for the Braves except that there may not have been a handy replacement). I don't think the Three Johns have a crystal ball, but we would have been putting patches on patches given all these occurrences (which obviously could not have been foreseen). I think Peraza would be with the big club by this point. From my vantage point (and I'll be the first to admit I'm not all-seeing), I just don't think we had the personnel or were in the situation to play high-stakes ball.
I think where you and I differ is in the estimation of the surplus of pitching available and how we could have thrown a rotation together (at least in the short term) and that we have over-invested in young pitching. We could have re-signed Harang (who is pitching well) or signed someone like Masterson (who isn't), but most everyone else was looking for two-year (or more) contracts and I don't know if we would have (or should have) gone there.
On the Heyward deal--which disappointed me because I like Heyward as a player--I think a lot of people underestimated Miller; who could develop into a quality arm. He was among the top of high school pitching prospects going into the 2009 draft with Tyler Matzek, Jacob Turner, and Zach Wheeler (not taken in that order due to signability questions), so he is a quality prospect who has arguably out-performed those other guys. I don't know what his ceiling is. I just know he was a decent return under the circumstances.
On the J. Upton deal--I was initially disappointed with the return, but Jace Peterson looks like he can play some and the rest of the return is promising if unproven. Mallex Smith could become Maalox Smith, giving pitchers indigestion (I bet he hasn't heard that one yet . . . today) and Dustin Peterson could be the best player of the bunch (although I would guess he's at least two years away).
On both of these deals, you have to gauge whether or not return would have been higher at the deadline or the possible draft pick worth more than the return. I can see both sides, although given the state of the minor league system, we needed projectible bodies and we did get a few of those.
Gattis deal--Braves either had to trade him or lobby MLB to make the DH rule apply to both leagues. Kind of a guy without a position (although he gave it his all at both C and LF). Foltynewicz, like Miller, is a good return. We'll have to wait on Ruiz, who is being pushed and not hitting at this point. Thurman could be a surprise as well as a mid-ceiling back-of-the-rotation guy.
Kimbrel and Melvin deal--Hard to not like it after everything else that had been done. Wisler will likely be in the rotation in the second half of 2015 and Maybin is a decent player. When I watch Maybin play, you can see how scouts get enamored (oft times mistakenly) with tools. Maybin is one of those guys who simply looks the part. Like Shelby Miller, Maybin was among the most highly ranked high school players in his draft class and was picked tenth overall. The tools haven't translated, but he just has the glide to him that always makes a guy think "someday it's all going to come together for him."
Markakis signing--I don't care how well he's playing. I didn't like the signing. A mustache on the Mona Lisa in terms of the rebuild.
Carpenter and Shreve for Banuelos. Torn on this one. Clearly the bullpen has been shaky this year and both Carpenter and Shreve would have played significant roles in our 2015 pen had they been in Atlanta and they were inexpensive (especially Shreve). Banuelos is working his way back and he's probably a big league pitcher at some point.
La Stella for Vizcaino. Tough call on this one, even before Vizcaino's suspension. I understand La Stella is certified jean creamer for a lot of folks in here and I think the Braves mishandled him by not having him take more reps at 3B in the minors. His glove was the question mark on him when he was drafted and maybe that's fair and maybe that's not, but I think he could have been a decent piece of have around keeping the seat warm for Peraza and then being a 2B/3B/PH 250 AB guy. I honestly think that's his ceiling and there's nothing wrong with that. That said, I think Jace Peterson is the better all-around player from what I have seen (which has to be qualified because of the small sample). Curious to see if we get anything out of Vizcaino and the international bonus pool money.
Cahill deal--As Billy Preston sang, "Nothing from nothing leaves nothing." Reasonable risk. Maybe he finds it in the bullpen and contributes there. Reyes is starting to hit a little in the Midwest League, but Elander is a guy without a position and isn't hitting. Again, the draft pick is the bonus.
So I don't know what the final grade would be in my estimation. I don't like all the moves for the reasons listed, but I do understand the moves and that's all I've ever asked for as a fan. I think the minor league system is in better shape, but the best prospect we got--Dustin Peterson--is a ways away. I'm hoping the draft and the international signing period produces some interesting prospects. With all these picks, it should.
Last edited by 50PoundHead; 05-18-2015 at 11:45 AM.
I think some mid-course adjustments probably did make sense. For example, moving one of Heyward, Justin Upton or Gattis for a starting pitcher. But not all three. That would have left us going into the season with Wood, Teheran, Minor, Acquired Pitcher, Veteran Signing Such as Harang. Now it is true you have to allow for injuries and regression as much as a return to form by guys who had off-years in 2014. But I do think we had some mid-level pitching depth (Martin, Hale, Williams Perez) that would have allowed us to compete even with Minor gong down. That's sort of what we are doing right now. But we would have had a better lineup instead of the current overperforming group. And yes there is no guarantee in any given season. You always need some pixie dust. But you need a lot more for a team that projects as 70-75 wins than you would with a team that projects 80-85 wins.
Last edited by nsacpi; 05-18-2015 at 11:50 AM.
And that is where we differ. I forgot to mention David Hale is stinking it up in Albuquerque. We'll see on Perez and I think Martin is a reliever.
As for your last sentence, 85 wins probably doesn't get us in the playoffs and where does that leave us in 2016? It really does boil down to whether or not J. Upton or Heyward could be re-signed and if it was deemed that they couldn't, do you take return now, return at the deadline, or take the draft picks.
I agree that we are over-performing now. We've got a scrappy bunch of grinders and I think Fredi has done a decent job of putting guys in situations where they can succeed, but I think we are going to wear down and this is a team that can't coast on talent.
I love how one month erases the last few years.
I didn't mean to say 85 wins get you into the playoffs. My poit was you still need some breaks even with a team that projects to have a winning season.
Was Shelby not good in 2013?
Its ok to admit you were wrong. You did not think that Shelby was good and you thought Heyward was great.
It ended up being that they are much closer in value than you thought.
Natural Immunity Croc
So far this season Shelby has been a lot better than Heyward.
Value wise - I didn't mind the trade. But I did mind us trading away a young, marketable, talented player rather than try to invest in him. Nothing that Shelby Miller does will change my mind about that
Was Jason Heyward marketable? I'm not even sure how to quantify that. I tried to look up jersey sales and saw Freeman ranked pretty high last year but didn't see anything about Heyward.
What are you basing that statement on?
Natural Immunity Croc
Well he was clearly a fan favorite. And a young, african-amercian, hometown player from Georgia. I don't have specific stats to back up his marketability - but I think it's a safe assumption.
I suppose he was. I'm just not sure you can get mad over a trade because of some hypothetical value that is difficult to corroborate. This is a baseball team and one that needed talent for the long haul at an affordable rate. At the same time it is a business so I understand your point of view.
Natural Immunity Croc
I've been one of Heyward's biggest fans, but I think you've all understood my logic and reasoning as to why we needed to tear this thing down which I won't elaborate on.
But I'm baffled as to why Heyward as yet to live up to the hype. I mean, I envisioned this guy being our modern day Barry Bonds (the Pittsburgh Barry Bonds and preroid Bonds that is) which was a 25-30 hr type of guy that stole a lot of bases and played great defense, with a good eye and just great all around player. In his first year, it looked like he was well on his way and has never been the same since then. Certainly injuries have played a part of it, but even now when I watch him with the Cards, he's the same player with the same issues. Is it mental or something else, I don't know, but you can see the talent, but so far the talent isn't necessarily translating into the production that all of us thought we would see. And it's why I would not have given into Heyward and his agent's demand until it was proven otherwise. He still young, and he's still got a lot of time to figure it out, but as a mid payroll team you can't be paying someone to be elite based on potential.
I wonder what Heyward thought of being asked to bat leadoff lastnight? I'm sure that's the reason his power has been zapped.
But I wanted Heyward to succeed in Atlanta so damn much, I wanted him to be our next Chipper...that guy you knew you could count on in the middle of the lineup. The fact he was from Georgia and was African American was great and would be great at bringing a different marketability to the Braves. Instead, much like Frenchy, Freeman took position of being the alpha dog and better offensive threat much like McCann did. But I thought Heyward and Freeman was going to be our new Chipper and Andruw or Gant and Justice and it never quite materialized.
Last edited by Millwood1Hitter; 05-18-2015 at 03:00 PM.
Tapate50 (05-18-2015)
Well put.
Ivermectin Man
Comment From L. Scott
Will we ever call the Heyward/Miller+ swap a good deal for both teams? Because right now the Braves totally performed grand theft on the Cards.
12:18
Dan Szymborski: I think it was a reasonable deal at the time. Hasn’t worked out great for the Cards yet.
12:19
Dan Szymborski: I’m growing increasingly concerned that we never see Heyward’s offensive upside again
Ivermectin Man
Its really a shame because the guy has all the tools to be a top 10 player.
Natural Immunity Croc
50PoundHead (05-18-2015)
Never had a problem with JUp, or the Chosen One.
Now, Gattis/BJ/CJ/Uggla is another story.
What is it? 6 picks among the first 3 rounds? Throw enough **** against the wall...
Sorry to go slightly O/T, but had mentioned this once before at Scout, too. MLB seems to want to get a bump in interest for draft coverage, like the other major sports. It should allow trading of picks, the way the NHL does.
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