5/17/15 Braves @ Marlins

[Russ2dollas]

Correct. Free Agents are rarely value contracts. Because you're buying them at or above market value. You have some dumpster fires (Upton, Hamilton) and some overpays (Pujols and Fielder) but if you want to be competitive you need to have guys through their prime.

Also it's important to sign the right free agents. Certain positions age faster, certain hitters age worse, and so on so forth.

They are mostly significant overpays. Mostly because baseball players want the security of years and baseball teams give it to them. Certain teams seem to be ok with the idea of signing a guy for 7 years, with 2 years getting value, 2 years getting close to value, and 3 years of rapid decline.

I don't think that can be the braves. I think Fielder or Pujos would be a giant mistake for the Braves.

Does anyone have an example since 2000 where the team won on a FA deal? Do you have 10?

The braves need to be out a year too early instead of a year too late IMO. The exception I would make is for dominant pitcher, b/c that has so much impact in a playoff series. But i still wouldn't go after Price.

[Russ2dollas]

The idea is to extend arby players a year or 2 into FA like they did with Freeman and Simmons.

Or you trade for JUp, keep him for a year. And then extend him when he has warm feelings for the braves like thethe has. Every player doesn't have to be home grown.

But you have to lock them up before that last year before FA. Once you're a year from FA the player should take the risk and go to FA........they'll get way more money. I just don't see the Braves signing anyone who wants to maximize dollars. I don't see us signing any Boras guys. We'll need guys who want to be here and are willing to take 80 cents on the FA dollar. We would not have been able to keep Chipper if he wanted to maximize his salary.

[thethe]

Unless the Braves finances significantly changes in the next few years I just don't see how we can be players on the FA market.

[Nerfherders]

I love how the Braves single-handedly got Redmond fired. At least that's how it feels.

[nsacpi]

Unless the Braves finances significantly changes in the next few years I just don't see how we can be players on the FA market.

Yeah. Unless there is an unbelievable bargain like Muk.

[gilesfan]

Keeping it in the last few years off the top of my head some good deals:

Cano, Werth, Holliday, Greinke, Victorino, Hunter, Swisher, Buerhle

Other great ones: Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Barry Bonds, Kirk Gibson, Terry Pendleton, Mussina, Manny, Vlad, Ichiro

[Russ2dollas]

Keeping it in the last few years off the top of my head some good deals:

Cano, Werth, Holliday, Greinke, Victorino, Hunter, Swisher, Buerhle

Other great ones: Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Barry Bonds, Kirk Gibson, Terry Pendleton, Mussina, Manny, Vlad, Ichiro

Cano-signed through 2023, so it's a little early.
Werth-2017. 10.7 WAR in his complete seasons. 4.4 million per WAR...So that is probably a slight adv to Washington, so far. Still owe 63 million.
Grienke is a win, I grant you that.
Victorino- Doesn't count in my post b/c it's only 3 years LONG. 6.7 War for finished seasons. 3.88 War......and only 1 year left so surprisingly a good contract. Great first year, BAD second year. Works out over 2 years
Hunter-Torrii?
Swisher-2.4 War. 3.6 one year then negative 1.2. 10.8 million per win over 2 years.......Not a win
Buerhle-3.8 million per win over 3 years....pretty good. This is a 4 year contract, so not the mega deal.

[gilesfan]

Cano-signed through 2023, so it's a little early.
Werth-2017. 10.7 WAR in his complete seasons. 4.4 million per WAR...So that is probably a slight adv to Washington, so far. Still owe 63 million.
Grienke is a win, I grant you that.
Victorino- Doesn't count in my post b/c it's only 3 years LONG. 6.7 War for finished seasons. 3.88 War......and only 1 year left so surprisingly a good contract. Great first year, BAD second year. Works out over 2 years
Hunter-Torrii?
Swisher-2.4 War. 3.6 one year then negative 1.2. 10.8 million per win over 2 years.......Not a win
Buerhle-3.8 million per win over 3 years....pretty good. This is a 4 year contract, so not the mega deal.

Werth has been worth 12.1 WAR and has been paid 59 million. He has 3 years left and if he's even 1 war a year, the deal is a win.

Hunter signed 5/90 with the Angels and put up 16.4 WAR in those 5 years.
Victorino/Buerhle....now you are changing your argument.

[thethe]

Hamilton/Pujols/Sabathia/BJ/Wells

We can name several contracts that are good and equallyi awful.

Its basically a 40-60% chance that your contract will be an awful one.

[gilesfan]

Hamilton/Pujols/Sabathia/BJ/Wells

We can name several contracts that are good and equallyi awful.

Its basically a 40-60% chance that your contract will be an awful one.

You completely made that number up.

The original free agent contract for Sabathia to the Yanks was in no way, shape, or form a bad contract. They got 25.4 (and counting) WAR from him from 09-15

Vernon Wells was a Blue Jays re-sign if you are using the other dudes "criteria."

[Russ2dollas]

Werth has been worth 12.1 WAR and has been paid 59 million. He has 3 years left and if he's even 1 war a year, the deal is a win.

Hunter signed 5/90 with the Angels and put up 16.4 WAR in those 5 years.
Victorino/Buerhle....now you are changing your argument.

I said in one of these many posts that I wouldn't go over 3 years. I said you'd use FA to fill holes.

What I meant in the previous posts but did not say (b/c I thought it was obvious) is that we are talking about premium FA. Came out of the JUp/Heyward argument. 100 million dollar guys. Contracts for 5+ years. Big deals. You will always have to sign guys to 1-2 year deals. I don't think that's changing the argument.

Keith Law does a top 50 FA each year. Maybe 10 of those big time deals a year......maybe more. We can come up with maybe 2 a year that are good for the team?

[Russ2dollas]

Werth has been worth 12.1 WAR and has been paid 59 million. He has 3 years left and if he's even 1 war a year, the deal is a win.

Hunter signed 5/90 with the Angels and put up 16.4 WAR in those 5 years.
Victorino/Buerhle....now you are changing your argument.

I just went real fast to Baseball ref. 1.3, 0.6, 4.7 and 4.1 WAR for Werth.

[thethe]

You completely made that number up.

The original free agent contract for Sabathia to the Yanks was in no way, shape, or form a bad contract. They got 25.4 (and counting) WAR from him from 09-15

Vernon Wells was a Blue Jays re-sign if you are using the other dudes "criteria."

This is about signing guys who are getting close to FA years. I don't think the Braves should sign big contracts to guys who are close to 30 although I think a hitter like Justin Upton will age well.

Sabathia has been AWFUL for the ynakees for the last few years. Just because he had 2-3 good years doens't make the overall contract good in my eyes. You can't have a player making that much be so bad.

No comment about Pujols or Hamilton?

[thewupk]

Doesn't make me upset at all. You are being exaggerent.

Your the one who said what others say effects your opinion of a player. Seems pretty absurd to me.

[thewupk]

This is about signing guys who are getting close to FA years. I don't think the Braves should sign big contracts to guys who are close to 30 although I think a hitter like Justin Upton will age well.

Sabathia has been AWFUL for the ynakees for the last few years. Just because he had 2-3 good years doens't make the overall contract good in my eyes. You can't have a player making that much be so bad.

No comment about Pujols or Hamilton?

To be fair CC has had 4 great years or better, one average year, and one horrible year where he only pitched 46 innings. This year remains to be seen. And whether you think that was a good deal or not I'm pretty sure he has out pitched his WAR/$$ when that contract was signed.

[thethe]

To be fair CC has had 4 great years or better, one average year, and one horrible year where he only pitched 46 innings. This year remains to be seen. And whether you think that was a good deal or not I'm pretty sure he has out pitched his WAR/$$ when that contract was signed.

Is have a huge variation in value from year to year a good thing though? I get the cumulative looks positive but the years where he was awful really hurt the Yankees. But for a team like that they can endure terrible years for the short term benefit of a bargain. Braves can't do that.

[gilesfan]

I said in one of these many posts that I wouldn't go over 3 years. I said you'd use FA to fill holes.

What I meant in the previous posts but did not say (b/c I thought it was obvious) is that we are talking about premium FA. Came out of the JUp/Heyward argument. 100 million dollar guys. Contracts for 5+ years. Big deals. You will always have to sign guys to 1-2 year deals. I don't think that's changing the argument.

Keith Law does a top 50 FA each year. Maybe 10 of those big time deals a year......maybe more. We can come up with maybe 2 a year that are good for the team?

As best as I can tell, the following are 100 million dollar, 5+ year contracts since 2011:

Reyes- 9.5 WAR over first 3 years. (~67.50 million dollar value). Would need to be worth 34.50 million over last 3 years of the deal or 1.5 WAR per year)
Fielder- Too early, probably a bad signing
Pujols- 7.1 WAR over first 3 years- (~49.40 million) Would need to be worth 191 million over last 7 years of deal or 3.9 WAR per year. Almost certainly a bad deal
Hamilton- Drugs. 3.1 WAR over first 2 years (23.3 million) Would need to be worth 100 million over last 3 years or 4.75 WAR per year. Almost certainly a bad deal
Greinke- 7.6 WAR over first 2 years. (57.3 million). Would need to be worth 90 million over next 4 years or 3.2 war per year. Probably a win unless injury occurs (already 1.1 WAR this year)
Choo- FAIL
Ellsbury- too early 3.9 WAR first year was well over pay
Cano- too early 5.1 WAR his first year
Scherzer- Too early. Good start
Lester- Too early. Good start
Lee- 19.3 WAR over first 4 years. (~139.4 million) Win.
Crawford- 5.7 WAR over first 4 years (~42.30 million). Would need 100 million over last 3 years. Fail.
Werth- 12.7 WAR over first 4 years (~94.7 million). Would need to be worth 31.3 million over last 3 years of deal or roughly 1.5 WAR per Year. Likely Win.

There may be some other contracts, the goal post moving is time consuming.

[gilesfan]

This is about signing guys who are getting close to FA years. I don't think the Braves should sign big contracts to guys who are close to 30 although I think a hitter like Justin Upton will age well.

Sabathia has been AWFUL for the ynakees for the last few years. Just because he had 2-3 good years doens't make the overall contract good in my eyes. You can't have a player making that much be so bad.

No comment about Pujols or Hamilton?

09- 230 IP0 5.9 WAR
10- 237.2 IP 5.1 WAR
11- 237.1 IP 6.4 WAR
12- 200 IP 4.7 WAR
13- 211 IP 2.6 WAR
14- 46 IP 0.1 WAR
15- 52 IP 0.6 WAR

You don't think the Yanks do that contract all over again? 4 great years, 1 solid year, 1 injury plagued year. 2015 remains to be seen; peripherals look better than ERA.

[gilesfan]

Is have a huge variation in value from year to year a good thing though? I get the cumulative looks positive but the years where he was awful really hurt the Yankees. But for a team like that they can endure terrible years for the short term benefit of a bargain. Braves can't do that.

year. singular; not plural.

[thewupk]

Is have a huge variation in value from year to year a good thing though? I get the cumulative looks positive but the years where he was awful really hurt the Yankees. But for a team like that they can endure terrible years for the short term benefit of a bargain. Braves can't do that.

He was also a main reason they won the world series in 2009 too. And this is the nature of the beast for long contracts to free agents. If you can get half of the contract to be excellent production then you have done good. If the Braves can't do that they will never be players on the FA market for top tier guys. Which means the yhave to either develop them internally or make trades like where they got Upton. It makes it a lot harder to build a winner that way.