Originally Posted by
zitothebrave
Any improvement from Teheran will be countered in game by Shelby Miller falling back to his peripherals. .183 BABIP as a ground ball pitcher is not sustainable. That will rise sharply and when it does his ERA will come with it. Still he's pitching very well, not trying to discount that, but he's got basically the same FIP and xFIP that Wood has but his ERA is 2 and a half runs lower.
Them the what happens when Kelly JOohnson comes back to earth, Nick Markakis's BABIP returns to career norms, and tons of other things that could go wrong.
The Braves need essentially a lot of guys to over achieve and few guys to underachieve. I dont' like betting on those odds. We're devoid of a lot of good players. Let's say Julio, Wood, Miller, Freeman, and Simmons are our good-great players. Where are we after that? Who else can you say we should be able to ocunt on that guy? Last year we had Jason, Justin, Freddie, Wood, Julio, Kimbrel, Simmons, and Gattis.
Seriously there's not much you should be optimistic about. Our catcher of the future has performed way worse than expected, we don't have a real CF solution (though Maybin has performed better) Alberto Callaspo and Johnny Gomes are the turds we knew they'd be, Our bright spots are Simmons is hitting like he did in 2013, and Freddie is still Freddie, and Jace has been solid. He's not been a star by any means. Last year we had 3 position players with an fWAR over 4 and 4 incredibly reliable pitchers and a lights out back end of the bullpen. Assume Julio gets back to where we want him to be. I think we have 3 reliable pitchers, maybe 4 if Folty works out but he's young and developing I wouldn't expect it. Our backend is decent, but basically 1/4 of the way through the season,no one in the backend has stepped up. I didn't expect anyone to replace Kimbrel, but I hoped someone could replace Walden or Carpenter and that may not happen. THouhg Grilli has put up very nice peripherals and should be in that grouping.
I don't get why people are optimistic aside from it's early in the season and our division isn't that great. But it wasn't great last year either and we missed the wild card with a far superior team. And it isn't like we upgraded at manager. WE need a ton of luck to get into the playoffs.
I expect us to be sellers at the deadline. Douchebag, probably 2 of our 3 Johnsons will be gone, and I'm sure plenty of others will be on the block. Sucky play liekly eliminates Gomes and Callaspo as trade options.