That comment wasn't meant for you, just in general. I really have no idea how you feel. It's apparent that there's decent percentage on this board who are scared of losing a trade. Meaning, they are going to want to make a trade unless the pendulum swings tremendously in the Braves favor. Therefore, they're rarely, if ever, going to be in favor of making a trade. Those types of deals don't come along too often.Originally Posted by zbhargrove
AA has made two statements that might be right or wrong, but deserve some discussion.
1) He has expressed the belief prices will drop as we get closer to the deadline. If he is correct, then waiting makes sense. There is a cost to waiting since it makes the team go without reinforcement for longer. We'll find out over the next week what happens to prices.
2) He has expressed a preference for acquiring players under contractual control beyond 2018. In effect he is trying to take care of some of the acquisitions that might have been done this off-season. I will make the observation that given what is on the farm at the upper levels we will still need a situational lefty in 2019 and it would still be helpful to have someone who can hit righty pitching well while spelling Camargo and Swanson on the left side of the infield. It isn't absolutely necessary that we get someone for those two needs who will be there in 2019. But it would be nice to be able to do this and if the price is reasonable we should. With respect to situational lefties this makes Claudio and Avilan somewhat preferable to Duke, Loup and Diekman. And it makes Solarte and Dietrich somewhat preferable to Moose, Cabrera and Escobar. Other factors (such as price) however might override whether we acquire a player who is under control beyond 2018.
Last edited by nsacpi; 07-25-2018 at 09:40 AM.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Those two things don't really add up. He's correct about them individually, but in 1), the prices will drop for players who are pending free agents. Teams want to deal those guys and the closer the deadline comes, the more their urgency to deal them rises. I don't believe a player with control such as Castellanos is going to be any more or less expensive now vs July 31st or in the offseason.
BTW, Solarte has been awful the past 2 months. I would rather keep the players we have. Dietrich on the other hand, would be a nice addition.
Correct. I almost always hate big deadline deals for the buying team, even when they're a legit contender...honestly perhaps even more when they're already a legit contender. Adding a decent rental piece for a non-prospect, sure, who cares. But legit deals where you're giving up legit talent? I rarely ever like those for the buyer.
Interesting you mention Solarte. First, his batted ball profile suggests that his numbers this year have been depressed by bad BABIP luck. This makes him an attractive target imo. Second, apparently the Jays are shopping him. This is a change from a few weeks ago when they said they would listen to offers on him rather than actively try to move him. It could well be that his price is dropping. I agree that the drop in prices as we get closer to the deadline mainly applies to impending free agents. But in some cases it will also apply to a player like Solarte.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Eovaldi to Boston for Jalen Beeks. Seems like a good get for Tampa.
Good deal for both imo.
Why I really like getting guys in May\June if you can. You keep from participating in the "frenzy". Also- why I like adding multiple lotto ticket RP arms in the offseason on cheap short deals, even if you end up with excess.
Ivermectin Man
I think the reason NYY did it is because they don't see a difference maker on the market now that will get them over the division vs Boston. In the back of their minds, they have to begin preparing for winning 105 games and having a 1 game playoff vs Seattle, Oakland, or heaven forbid Houston. Britton gives them a proven LH end game reliever for that game.
yeah...it makes sense for both teams...fair return for the Rays...equivalent player in our system is Evan Phillips
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Id have a scout looking at Johnny Venters for our pen. Shouldn't cost a whole lot.
Ivermectin Man
Eovaldi is going to help the Red Sox by about the same Britton is going to help the Yankees.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Not saying Tate is a better prospect, but value wise in a trade he is very similar.
No, Beeks is better. An equivalent would be a Bruce Zimmerman.
Nice trade for the Red Sox. Cost was not bad either. Looks like a decent SP in this market is going to cost a bit.
Beeks is a late bloomer. He did some things this season to alter his mechanics and I think he added a new pitch. He's a had a good season in the minors this year. Struggled his two MLB appearances.
Yep, was #6 in the Red Sox system in Baseball America's midseason update. Seems like a good piece for Tampa to use as a multi-inning reliever type.
I'm not sure this is an especially good read of the market by AA.
If he is interested in protecting the farm's assets, quality relievers with remaining control will almost certainly be more costly than expiring deals.
While the non-contenders with expiring contracts will have increasing pressure to get what they can for these players, there is not necessarily an equivalent pressure on teams who have attractive players with remaining control. While a team certainly would like to get the very most value out of a player (and extorting would be contenders at the deadline is a nice method of doing that), those teams will have other opportunities to cash in those assets.
They have every incentive simply to hold on and wait for something that blows them away. The Padres did not suffer by not trading Hand last season for example.
Moreover, the longer the Braves make no move, the more pressure will be on them to make a deal. Both because they have obvious and long standing weaknesses and because the fans are clearly going to expect them to do something.
As the quality targets on the market go elsewhere, there will be fewer worthy targets of acquisition. Maybe that will be offset by the other buyers having satisfied their needs, maybe there will just be a bidding war on the last guys. Leaving the Braves the option of overpaying or settling on what teams didn't want that they can get cheaply.
Anyone that has participated in markets knows that being the last party standing and dominating the market can be good when there is a lot of valuable commodities left. it's disastrous when there isn't any quality left. How this market shapes up is anyone's guess. There is no way to calculate the supply or demand from a distance with any certainty.
But I know I would not mind having been the team that gave up 40 FV players and international money for Familia right now.
But there is always the chance that the Braves have few available resources to actually make moves. And the chance that teams are being especially unfair in trying to extort the Braves of better players than they are accepting of other teams.
This is objectively incorrect. A player under control for 2 post seasons runs is without questions more valuable than a player under control for 1 post season run.
That is Trade Value 101.
I wasn't arguing that it was a good read. But that seems to be where he is coming from and it is worth discussing.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
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