Braves Will Be Even Better In 2014

[AUTiger7222]

A few weeks ago David Schoenfield wrote a piece about how the Nats would win the NL East in 2014. Well I wrote a rebuttal to that in I think the Braves will be better in 2014.

http://bigtbliss.blogspot.com/2013/12/my-rebuttal.html

[nsacpi]

An interesting detail to contemplate is the extent that the run prevention we saw in 2013 reflects defense (mostly a certain Andrelton Simmons) rather than pitching. Of course it is a mix of both. But to the extent it reflects Simmons' exceptional defensive play it is something we can count on repeating in 2014.

[AUTiger7222]

An interesting detail to contemplate is the extent that the run prevention we saw in 2013 reflects defense (mostly a certain Andrelton Simmons) rather than pitching. Of course it is a mix of both. But to the extent it reflects Simmons' exceptional defensive play it is something we can count on repeating in 2014.

That is a great point that didn't even cross my mind. Also if BJ hits this season then he's going to be playing in the OF every day and an outfield of Justin, BJ and Heyward is much, much better defensively than an OF of Gattis, Heyward and Justin. Heck you don't have to look any further than game 1 against the Dodgers to see how much of a role OF defense, or a lack there of, plays in run prevention.

[zitothebrave]

An interesting detail to contemplate is the extent that the run prevention we saw in 2013 reflects defense (mostly a certain Andrelton Simmons) rather than pitching. Of course it is a mix of both. But to the extent it reflects Simmons' exceptional defensive play it is something we can count on repeating in 2014.

Well, if you would, Braves starters had a difference in ERA vs FIP of -0.07 and their relievers came in at -0.67. So I don't think our starters were overly helped by the defense. Some guys were if you believer ERA and FIP correlate directly to defense, as Minor, Medlen, Julio, and Freddy all had lower ERAs than FIPs, but to balance that out, Wood, Hudson, Beachy, and Maholm all had lower FIPs than ERAs.

Overall our defense wasn't that good last year. Some guys rocked, Simmons, Heyward, and McCann. But we had many guys not rock. What helped us was we had a lot of smart players. Simmons basically carried our IF defense. Uggla, Freeman and Johnson's UZR wipes out about half of Simmons. If we had a competent defender at 2B or 3B, our defense would be an asset at that point.

Overall though, if we have a healthy OF, and Justin is more acclimated to LF, we'll be much better defensively out there. That's our best shot at improving our defense.

[AUTiger7222]

Well, if you would, Braves starters had a difference in ERA vs FIP of -0.07 and their relievers came in at -0.67. So I don't think our starters were overly helped by the defense. Some guys were if you believer ERA and FIP correlate directly to defense, as Minor, Medlen, Julio, and Freddy all had lower ERAs than FIPs, but to balance that out, Wood, Hudson, Beachy, and Maholm all had lower FIPs than ERAs.

Overall our defense wasn't that good last year. Some guys rocked, Simmons, Heyward, and McCann. But we had many guys not rock. What helped us was we had a lot of smart players. Simmons basically carried our IF defense. Uggla, Freeman and Johnson's UZR wipes out about half of Simmons. If we had a competent defender at 2B or 3B, our defense would be an asset at that point.

Overall though, if we have a healthy OF, and Justin is more acclimated to LF, we'll be much better defensively out there. That's our best shot at improving our defense.

Having Simmons allows us to have major defense liabilities like Johnson and Uggla at 3B and 2B. Just think if one of those positions was fielded by a guy that was just even average defensively? It would be insane because we could think position Simba a little more towards 3B or 2B to get to even more balls and make our defense better.

But overall what did you guys think of my blog post?

[zitothebrave]

I think it's a good post. I would read the original, but if he thinks Harper is a breakout candidate what the hell does he think he'll break out to being? Best player of all time.

[AUTiger7222]

I think it's a good post. I would read the original, but if he thinks Harper is a breakout candidate what the hell does he think he'll break out to being? Best player of all time.

Yeah. Thanks for the feedback.

[Heyward]

8. Atlanta Braves

How they can get to 90 wins: They went 96-66 by allowing 548 runs -- the second-lowest total since the 1980s (not counting the 1994 strike season). Only the 2011 Phillies allowed fewer since 1990.

Big offseason moves: Lost C Brian McCann, lost SP Tim Hudson, lost SP Paul Maholm, acquired C/OF Ryan Doumit from the Twins for P Sean Gilmartin, signed SP Gavin Floyd.

Most intriguing player: Now that he has the big new contract, the pressure will be on Freddie Freeman to prove last year was a real improvement in ability.

Due for a better season: B.J. Upton has to be better than a .184 hitter ... right?

Due for a worse season: The bullpen led the majors in ERA and had three relievers pitch at least 65 innings with an ERA under 1.80. Craig Kimbrel is awesome, but I'm not sure the rest of the 'pen will put up the same lethal numbers.
I'm just the messenger: The Braves' run prevention was historic and the trap is to assume it will be just as good. After all, the defense -- led by the wondrous Andrelton Simmons -- should be very good and starters Kris Medlen, Mike Minor and Julio Teheran are all young. But they could have something similar to the 2012 Phillies, with their great trio of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. After their historic performance in 2011, the Phillies allowed 151 more runs the following season. I don't believe that severe of an increase will happen to the Braves, but you can surely bet they will allow a significantly higher total.

The final word: Braves fans aren't going to like where I've ranked them and they'll point out that the offense is likely to score more runs with betters years from both Uptons, Jason Heyward and even the much-maligned Dan Uggla. I can see that, but I also don't see Chris Johnson competing for a batting title again or Evan Gattis replacing McCann all that well behind the plate.

Predicted record: 90-72

Pretty fair assessment imo.

[thethe]

I just dont' see how we aren't better.

Where is the big regression coming from? Who had career years last year? I see a bunch of young pitchers who could be better and a couple of hitters who should od better as well. Injuries are always a reality but I don't see why we are worse off. Maybe leadership with Mac but I think Gattis has a better season than last year.

[Gary82]

I see this team as a wild card contender. 88-92 wins seems pretty reasonable.

[Heyward]

I just dont' see how we aren't better.

Where is the big regression coming from? Who had career years last year? I see a bunch of young pitchers who could be better and a couple of hitters who should od better as well. Injuries are always a reality but I don't see why we are worse off. Maybe leadership with Mac but I think Gattis has a better season than last year.

Chris Johnson, bullpen.

Not sure with Gattis.

[gilesfan]

A few weeks ago David Schoenfield wrote a piece about how the Nats would win the NL East in 2014. Well I wrote a rebuttal to that in I think the Braves will be better in 2014.

http://bigtbliss.blogspot.com/2013/12/my-rebuttal.html

How is your article any less bias than the one from ESPN? You essentially do the same thing that you claim that writer did.

[zitothebrave]

Braves are at an interesting crossroads.

Here's my general assessment since I"ve had more time to think.

Basically we should be about as good of a team as we were last year dependent on health and smart management. Of course we can't count on those things but we have lots of things going for us.

Think 1. We cannot get worse production from BJ or 2B. If Uggla keeps sucking we'll replace him with TLS. BJ is not this bad, That alone will help ease the loss of McCann. Heyward being healthy would be huge. Last year he compiled a 3.4 WAR and if healthy he would have likely added a full win to that at least.

Offensively I think we'll be better. Defensively we should be better (no Gattis in LF. YAY, also think with more time in LF Justin will be better as well). Pitching we'll have some regression I think. But overall I think we're as good of a tema as we were last year, question will be health, and of course does anyone have a Bossman level collapse?

[zitothebrave]

I just dont' see how we aren't better.

Where is the big regression coming from? Who had career years last year? I see a bunch of young pitchers who could be better and a couple of hitters who should od better as well. Injuries are always a reality but I don't see why we are worse off. Maybe leadership with Mac but I think Gattis has a better season than last year.

Big regression who konws. We have 2 offensive players who overachieved (Freeman and Johnson) and 3 who underachieved (Simmons, Bossman, and Uggla) all our pitchers except Huddy outpitched their FIP.

I mean betting on a 90 win team or so is a solid bet, the extra 6 wins can be some lucky bounces or fortunate scheduling.

[nsacpi]

Here's the way I see it

Negative changes:
1) Replacing McCann with Gattis
2) Replacing Gattis with Doumit on the bench

Positive changes:
1) Replacing Maholm with Wood

Neutral changes:
1) Replacing Hudson with Beachy

Players/Areas likely to improve:
1) BJ Upton
2) Uggla or whoever plays second
3) Simmons
4) Heyward
5) Justin Upton

Players/Areas likely to regress
1) Johnson
2) Freeman
3) Bullpen

I expect our front 3 starters (Medlen, Minor, Teheran) to be better as a group.

Bottom line prediction: slight improvement to 97 wins.

[zitothebrave]

My concern though, is that we'll be replacing Maholm with Freddy Garcia. I have this sinking feeling Freddy Garcia is gonna be in our starting rotation.

[nsacpi]

My concern though, is that we'll be replacing Maholm with Freddy Garcia. I have this sinking feeling Freddy Garcia is gonna be in our starting rotation.

I worry about the Garcia signing too. But I think more likely he'll be in the pen to carry forward the distinguished line of Proctor, Livan, Durbin.

[Dalyn]

My concern though, is that we'll be replacing Maholm with Freddy Garcia. I have this sinking feeling Freddy Garcia is gonna be in our starting rotation.

Yep.

[bravebonebook]

New season approaches, another prediction that the Nats will win the division and, maybe, the whole thing. Last year was a fluke since they'll be the cream of the crop for years and years to come...

[Knucksie]

Remember 2 things:

1. All of the "experts" picked the Nationals to win the division last season. They hate to be wrong.
2. They're obsessed with Power Rankings. So, they make determinations, based on roster moves. This is based on trades & FA signings over the winter. That impresses them more than attempting to project the improvement of an emerging player (Gattis, Simmons) or a bounce back year (BJ Upton and, God willing, Uggla).