The stats you used were cherry picked. "last 13 starts for Maholm." Second half numbers from McCann.
You take the optimistic view on everything Braves related....which is fine.....but don't in the same blog diss another writer for doing the same exact thing.
You also claimed the Braves have a better rotation than the Nationals. The argument between the talent of the teams is a good one. But, the Nationals rotation is far superior to the Braves.
ehhhhh
Your use of superlatives is wrong.
Last year the Braves and nationals rotations were virtually identical, slight advantage to the Nats on Ks and BB slight advantage to the Braves on IP and HR. Both teams shed their worst starter, the Nats getting Fister and the Braves using Beachy/Wood/Floyd.
The Nats have the advantage with top end talent, Strasburg, Zimmerman, Fister and Gio are a fearsome 1-4. But their 5 is looking mighty shaky and their depth if there is injury is not too good. Braves meanwhile have no weak spots and great depth. Minor, Medlen, Julio, Beachy/Wood/Foyd gives you 5 guys who can all be low to mid 3 ERA guys. Nothing bad about that.
Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg
That would be an excellent fifth starter indeed if they could get those combined numbers.
It is interesting to look at the projections for 2014. Steamer projects a 4.00 FIP for Detwiler, a 3.68 FIP for Roark, and a 3.74 for Jordan.
It is worth noting the Alex Wood had a 2.65 FIP for us last year and is projected by Steamer to have a 3.42 FIP in 2014.
Small samples all around, but some food for thought.
Far superior is a very strong statement. Why shouldn't we expect big seasons from the top 3 of the Braves staff and then the depth after that is among the tops in baseball.
Natural Immunity Croc
Its not a knock on us, who have a great staff. The Nats have the best staff in baseball.
But, if you are ranking the starters, what would your order be? (I will just put Steamer projections in parenthesis as a guide)
My ranking (in order) would be:
Strasburg (2.90)
Fister (3.09)
Gio (3.37)
Zimmermann (3.54)
Minor (3.82)
Teheran (3.98)
Medlen (3.47)
Wood (3.42)
Nats 5th -3.75-4
Beachy (3.97)
Floyd (3.59)
I expect the division to be better....so I'm not sure that anyone wins more games than the Braves did last year.
I'd think the Nats and Braves are 90 wins +/- 3. So they'll be about the same and head to head games will be critical.
BJ and Uggla had historically bad offensive seasons. 2 of your top 8. Historically bad. Getting league avg play from BJ and Uggla or replacement covers up a lot of regression (C, Bullpen, FF RISP, CJ).
Steamer uses existing data to make a projection of the future (I believe). Of course its going to be less favorable to thsoe that don't have a body of work. I believe that Minor will be the second best pitcher on the two staffs and Julio as the wildcard because he could be right there with Stras.
Natural Immunity Croc
Fister is a ground ball pitcher with good FIP figures for the past few years. The last 2 he's had a 3.26 and 3.42 FIP. He's been a low to mid 3's ERA over the past 3 years despite 2.5 being in the AL with terrible infield defense, which has a huge effect on groundball pitchers.
I'm a bit of a contrarian in terms of the pecking order of the Braves pitchers. Among Braves and Gnats starters, my order would be:
1. Strasburg
2. Medlen
3. Wood
4. Zimmermann
5. Fister
6. Beachy
7. Teheran
8. Minor
9. Gio
10. Detwiler
I know the many Mike Minor fans around here will be aghast. I think he is a good pitcher, but not necessarily better than the other four in our rotation. Gnats fans will similarly wonder if I've lost my marbles about Gio. Just remember my ranking is what I think they'll do in 2014. Using FIP as the measuring rod.
Last edited by nsacpi; 02-06-2014 at 06:23 PM.
He said the Braves would miss Hudson and Maholm. I pointed out stats that say the Braves WILL NOT miss Hudson and Maholm.
He said the Braves would miss McCann. I pointed out stats that say the Braves WILL NOT miss McCann.
See what I did there? I made a counter point to his opinions and I had stats to back up my opinions. That's why you call it cherry picking and I call it poking a hole in his balloon.