Page 18 of 289 FirstFirst ... 816171819202868118 ... LastLast
Results 341 to 360 of 5779

Thread: Official Offseason Thread

  1. #341
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,433
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    Robo umps are part of a vast conspiracy to make humans look good. Don't fall for it folks.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

  2. #342
    Sabermetric Slut
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Your Mom's Basement
    Posts
    29,669
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,721
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    8,744
    Thanked in
    5,837 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    I don't think plan worked as well as they thought it would. They weren't really drawing new fans and they were pissing off the fans that they did have.

    Speaking of which, we have out first ejection, courtesy of Robo-Ump. Apparently this a strike now:




    Robo-Ump is still the stupiddest idea in the history of baseball. Why even have the home plate umpire stand behind the catcher? His job is useless until someone is on base, unless you count foul tips. Also, might as well have the catcher stand up and let the pitcher throw where he wants when no one is on base. There really isn't a use for him other than to throw the ball back to the pitcher.
    I think it's funny that it's Heyward's younger brother here. I like the robo ump personally once it's prone to zero errors. The strikezone may change but it will at least be consistent and not change from umpire to umpire or batter to batter.

  3. The Following User Says Thank You to thewupk For This Useful Post:

    JohnAdcox (10-21-2019)

  4. #343
    NL Rookie of the Year
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    2,198
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    13
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    287
    Thanked in
    239 Posts
    I'm not sure that the Hechavarria ball leaves the yard if Busch Stadium's warning track is 5 feet long because of the number that I saw from STL's "analytics" and because the exit velocity wasn't all that high, but it gets much closer that it did and based off knowing this, the announcer going into his home run call not knowing about them changing the ball back (because...sure) now doesn't look bad.

    But there are several other balls that leave with the regular season ball now that we know that they decided to change for the postseason. Acuna's 7th inning ball in game 1, I'm a lot more certain that's a homer because of the right field short porch. It's close enough that he likely should have run, but its not as bad. In game 3 and 4, the Braves hit a bunch of balls that I'm pretty sure leave in the regular season. At least 3-4 off Wainwright and a couple with Mikolas pitching in relief.

    And as everyone else said, this looks REALLY bad. You have teams that played in a certain way and leaned on the home run ball, and you took that ball away and catered to teams that lean more on pitching and just contact (Nationals were both). What a surprise, change the ball and 2 of the best home run teams in the NL get eliminated!
    Aggression with prospects is fine, but being stupid is not. There should be a way to find a happy medium between a Pirates like idea of being overly cautious with prospects and going stupidly fast with prospects.

  5. The Following User Says Thank You to GeorgiaGirl For This Useful Post:

    JohnAdcox (10-21-2019)

  6. #344
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,261
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    10,000
    Thanked in
    6,108 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    I don't think plan worked as well as they thought it would. They weren't really drawing new fans and they were pissing off the fans that they did have.

    Speaking of which, we have out first ejection, courtesy of Robo-Ump. Apparently this a strike now:




    Robo-Ump is still the stupiddest idea in the history of baseball. Why even have the home plate umpire stand behind the catcher? His job is useless until someone is on base, unless you count foul tips. Also, might as well have the catcher stand up and let the pitcher throw where he wants when no one is on base. There really isn't a use for him other than to throw the ball back to the pitcher.
    Umm, the ump is there specifically to catch blatant malfunctions like this.

    So once again the human ump failed to do his job correctly, while the robo ump is likely correct 99.8% of the time.

  7. #345
    Arbitration Eligible
    Join Date
    Aug 2017
    Posts
    3,381
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    68
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,171
    Thanked in
    773 Posts
    To be effective, a robo ump doesn't have to be perfect, it just has to be better than humans, which isn't difficult at all with today's technology. With an ump behind the plate to catch blatant malfunctions, like Scheff said, then it should be a much better system. But it still won't be perfect.

  8. #346
    Arbitration Eligible
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    2,811
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    29
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    887
    Thanked in
    589 Posts
    Was running some numbers though baseball trade values and this came together as an even proposal. Melancon AJax and 6mil to the Indians for Kluber. Seems like it could make sense for both sides to me.

  9. #347
    Voted Worst Poster
    '13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner)
    Heyward's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    22,572
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,251
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,257
    Thanked in
    1,831 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Slippyjms View Post
    Was running some numbers though baseball trade values and this came together as an even proposal. Melancon AJax and 6mil to the Indians for Kluber. Seems like it could make sense for both sides to me.
    Kluber's value is down but it would still cost alot more than that to get Kluber.

  10. #348
    It's OVER 5,000! Hudson2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    8,679
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    956
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,455
    Thanked in
    1,123 Posts
    After seeing the teams with the 2 best pitching staffs in baseball make the WS I could see a lot of teams way overpaying for Cole this offseason.

  11. The Following User Says Thank You to Hudson2 For This Useful Post:

    JohnAdcox (10-21-2019)

  12. #349
    Arbitration Eligible
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    2,811
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    29
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    887
    Thanked in
    589 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    Kluber's value is down but it would still cost alot more than that to get Kluber.
    I’m not so sure. It looks like he only has around 2.7 mil in surplus value.

  13. #350
    Brian Jordan's New BFF JohnAdcox's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Atlanta
    Posts
    1,124
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    13,990
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,045
    Thanked in
    459 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Hudson2 View Post
    After seeing the teams with the 2 best pitching staffs in baseball make the WS I could see a lot of teams way overpaying for Cole this offseason.
    I would think it would be only one.

  14. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to JohnAdcox For This Useful Post:

    Snowman (10-22-2019), The Chosen One (10-21-2019)

  15. #351
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    11,386
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,392
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,746
    Thanked in
    1,975 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Slippyjms View Post
    Was running some numbers though baseball trade values and this came together as an even proposal. Melancon AJax and 6mil to the Indians for Kluber. Seems like it could make sense for both sides to me.
    I mentioned Folty, Greene, and Wright for Kluber and Hand.

  16. #352
    Arbitration Eligible
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    2,811
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    29
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    887
    Thanked in
    589 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    I mentioned Folty, Greene, and Wright for Kluber and Hand.
    I don’t see how that would help us.

  17. #353
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,261
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    10,000
    Thanked in
    6,108 Posts
    We went over this last year when the Indians were supposedly shopping Kluber. They ultimately held onto him and tried to compete.

    And now folks think they are going to sell low on him after a disappointing season?

  18. #354
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    11,386
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,392
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,746
    Thanked in
    1,975 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Slippyjms View Post
    I don’t see how that would help us.
    Folty, if healthy, is potentially a 3-4 win pitcher at best. Kluber, if healthy, could potentially be a 5 win pitcher.

  19. #355
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    11,386
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,392
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,746
    Thanked in
    1,975 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Slippyjms View Post
    I’m not so sure. It looks like he only has around 2.7 mil in surplus value.
    Um What?

    Kluber has more like 25-30 million in surplus value conservatively (assuming 6 WAR total over the next 2 years). The Indians probably still value him as a 5 win pitcher, so they probably see his surplus value in the 60-70 million range.

  20. #356
    Arbitration Eligible
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    2,811
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    29
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    887
    Thanked in
    589 Posts
    It was my understanding that next year is his final year and his price tag would be 17.5 mil. That 2.7 mil would be valuing him next year at about 2.5 fWAR (8 mil per fWAR). I know they were trying to shed payroll.

  21. #357
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    11,386
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,392
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,746
    Thanked in
    1,975 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Slippyjms View Post
    It was my understanding that next year is his final year and his price tag would be 17.5 mil. That 2.7 mil would be valuing him next year at about 2.5 fWAR (8 mil per fWAR). I know they were trying to shed payroll.
    He has 2 years remaining, both options, which 2020 has already been picked up. 2.5 WAR is a very conservative estimate for a guy that has averaged 6 fWAR between 2014 and 2018. I know he's coming off of injury and he has clearly entered the decline phase of his career, but I would still expect conservatively a 3-4 fWAR for 2020 and 2-3 fWAR in 2021, for a total of 6-7 WAR and a surplus value in the 25-30 million range. But it's certainly possible he could bounce back to his 2018 level, which would put his surplus value in the 50-60 million range (likely where Cleveland values him at). Also if you only expect Kluber to produce 2.5 WAR, then he probably isn't worth trading for considering his contract.

    Even still, the average price per WAR is closer to 10 million than 8 million I believe. So in your scenario, he likely has roughly 10-15 million in surplus value, rather than 2.7 million.
    Last edited by Carp; 10-22-2019 at 07:50 AM.

  22. #358
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jun 2017
    Posts
    8,025
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,467
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,951
    Thanked in
    1,360 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Slippyjms View Post
    Was running some numbers though baseball trade values and this came together as an even proposal. Melancon AJax and 6mil to the Indians for Kluber. Seems like it could make sense for both sides to me.
    the indians would laugh and hang up. that's not even close to what it would take.
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

    “I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg

  23. #359
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,261
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    10,000
    Thanked in
    6,108 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    He has 2 years remaining, both options, which 2020 has already been picked up. 2.5 WAR is a very conservative estimate for a guy that has averaged 6 fWAR between 2014 and 2018. I know he's coming off of injury and he has clearly entered the decline phase of his career, but I would still expect conservatively a 3-4 fWAR for 2020 and 2-3 fWAR in 2021, for a total of 6-7 WAR and a surplus value in the 25-30 million range. But it's certainly possible he could bounce back to his 2018 level, which would put his surplus value in the 50-60 million range (likely where Cleveland values him at). Also if you only expect Kluber to produce 2.5 WAR, then he probably isn't worth trading for considering his contract.

    Even still, the average price per WAR is closer to 10 million than 8 million I believe. So in your scenario, he likely has roughly 10-15 million in surplus value, rather than 2.7 million.
    Your analysis is pretty spot on.

    Kluber was a consistent 5-7 win guy the last 5 seasons, and had a disaster 2019 after a line drive broke his arm, and he strained his abdomen while rehabbing.

    While Kluber is almost certainly in his decline phase, his injuries weren't arm related (meaning from throwing a baseball), and he is still likely a good pitcher. No team is going to pay retail to acquire a guy coming back from injury, and the Indians would be foolish to sell low on him.

    Selling low on Kluber would be about as dumb as selling low on Inciarte.

  24. The Following User Says Thank You to Enscheff For This Useful Post:

    Carp (10-22-2019)

  25. #360
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,433
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Your analysis is pretty spot on.

    Kluber was a consistent 5-7 win guy the last 5 seasons, and had a disaster 2019 after a line drive broke his arm, and he strained his abdomen while rehabbing.

    While Kluber is almost certainly in his decline phase, his injuries weren't arm related (meaning from throwing a baseball), and he is still likely a good pitcher. No team is going to pay retail to acquire a guy coming back from injury, and the Indians would be foolish to sell low on him.

    Selling low on Kluber would be about as dumb as selling low on Inciarte.
    so inciarte for kluber?
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

  26. The Following User Says Thank You to nsacpi For This Useful Post:

    Carp (10-22-2019)

Similar Threads

  1. The Official Thread of Pachemonium
    By SJ24 in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 263
    Last Post: 07-14-2018, 05:40 PM
  2. The Official Thread of Maitan Madness
    By SJ24 in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 31
    Last Post: 08-29-2017, 11:05 AM
  3. Official pre-Draft thread
    By Hudson2 in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 1270
    Last Post: 06-13-2017, 03:01 PM
  4. The Official It's Better for Everyone That Dan Uggla's Done Thread
    By rico43 in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 82
    Last Post: 07-15-2014, 01:16 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •