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Thread: A Tale of Two Surprising Success Stories

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    A Tale of Two Surprising Success Stories

    The start of the 2014 season has seen two very surprising success stories at starting pitcher.

    1) Pitcher 1 has a new pitch and is using it a lot. The other has pretty much the same repertoire.
    2) Pitcher 1 is generating about 10% more groundballs than his career average. The other is generating more flyballs than ever.
    3) Pitcher 2 has an extraordinarily low BABIP, HR rate and high strand rate. Not so with the other.
    4) Pitcher 2 is throwing his fastball at the same velocity as recent years. Pitcher 1 is throwing at a lower velocity, having made the choice to sacrifice velocity in exchange for more consistent command in the lower part of the strike zone. Even having made that choice, pitcher 1's average fastball velocity is higher than pitcher 2's average fastball velocity.
    5) Pitcher 1 is 5 years younger.
    6) Pitcher 1 has a significantly lower xFIP.

    Ladies and gentlemen, I submit to you that pitcher 1 is much, much more likely to remain successful the rest of this year.

    If the Braves had pitcher 1, I would not be so anxious to replace him with Gavin Floyd in the rotation, even if he had a bad game or two. In the case of pitcher 2, I would remove him from the rotation as soon as feasible.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 04-27-2014 at 09:20 AM.

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    High School Draftee Modok's Avatar
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    I find it very amusing that you really want to replace Harang. I understand the statistical/scouting analysis justifies considering the move but you can't take somebody out of the rotation that is putting up zeros like Harang is doing now. He needs to have two bad starts before its even considered a realistic move IMO.
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    Couple games ago, Glavine made a very astute comment for all you stat heads to consider. "If a pitcher can put up 200 innings in a season, all else will take care of itself."

    Even if Harang evens out to even slightly above career norms he should have no problem putting 200 in the books barring injury. Floyd OTOH, starting tomorrow has virtually no shot at 200.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    I find it very amusing that you really want to replace Harang. I understand the statistical/scouting analysis justifies considering the move but you can't take somebody out of the rotation that is putting up zeros like Harang is doing now. He needs to have two bad starts before its even considered a realistic move IMO.
    Why are you assuming Harang is pitcher 2. Maybe he is pitcher 1. Or neither. Or all of the above. Maybe I made up both these pitchers.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 04-27-2014 at 10:01 AM.

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    Pitcher 1- Harang

    Pitcher 2- Hale

    Right/Wrong?

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    But Harang is pitcher 1. I'm making the case for keeping him in the rotation even if he stumbles.
    "Pitcher 1 is 5 years younger"

    Did you mean older here?
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    Is pitcher 1 wood? The knuckle curve.
    Forever Fredi


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    Quote Originally Posted by PawPawMaxwell View Post
    Couple games ago, Glavine made a very astute comment for all you stat heads to consider. "If a pitcher can put up 200 innings in a season, all else will take care of itself."

    Even if Harang evens out to even slightly above career norms he should have no problem putting 200 in the books barring injury. Floyd OTOH, starting tomorrow has virtually no shot at 200.
    Sorry to disagree but Glavine's comment doesn't strike me as saying anything profound or even interesting. There have been bad 200 inning seasons. I'll cite Bronson Arroyo 2011 season (well he only pitched 199 innings that year) as a recent example and leave it at that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    "Pitcher 1 is 5 years younger"

    Did you mean older here?
    Nope. The suspense thickens.

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    Pitcher 1- Harang

    Pitcher 2- Hale

    Right/Wrong?
    Try again.

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KeithLockhart View Post
    Is pitcher 1 wood? The knuckle curve.
    Nada

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Try again.
    You think you're pretty smart, don't you, Trebek? What with your Diego mustache and your greasy hair!

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    Pitcher #1: Ervin Santana
    Pitcher #2: Aaron Harang

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    The start of the 2014 season has seen two very surprising success stories at starting pitcher.

    1) Pitcher 1 has a new pitch and is using it a lot. The other has pretty much the same repertoire.
    2) Pitcher 1 is generating about 10% more groundballs than his career average. The other is generating more flyballs than ever.
    3) Pitcher 2 has an extraordinarily low BABIP, HR rate and high strand rate. Not so with the other.
    4) Pitcher 2 is throwing his fastball at the same velocity as recent years. Pitcher 1 is throwing at a lower velocity, having made the choice to sacrifice velocity in exchange for more consistent command in the lower part of the strike zone. Even having made that choice, pitcher 1's average fastball velocity is higher than pitcher 2's average fastball velocity.
    5) Pitcher 1 is 5 years younger.
    6) Pitcher 1 has a significantly lower xFIP.

    Ladies and gentlemen, I submit to you that pitcher 1 is much, much more likely to remain successful the rest of this year.

    If the Braves had pitcher 1, I would not be so anxious to replace him with Gavin Floyd in the rotation, even if he had a bad game or two. In the case of pitcher 2, I would remove him from the rotation as soon as feasible.
    Pitcher 1 isn't a Brave. Maholm? I don't know, I gotta go to church.

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    Quote Originally Posted by T2TCampbell87 View Post
    Pitcher #1: Ervin Santana
    Pitcher #2: Aaron Harang
    Ooh, is it Santana?

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    Connoisseur of Minors zitothebrave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawk View Post
    You think you're pretty smart, don't you, Trebek? What with your Diego mustache and your greasy hair!
    That's not the line

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GovClintonTyree View Post
    Ooh, is it Santana?
    Not Ervin or Johan.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zitothebrave View Post
    That's not the line
    I just copied it from the first website that came up under 'SNL trebek'

    http://snltranscripts.jt.org/99/99cjeopardy.phtml

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    Pitcher #2 is Tim Hudson.

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