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Thread: Trade Speculation

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    I think the Oakland trade makes some sense as long as the Braves are willing to move Freeman. Butler gives you a bridge at 1B in 2017 for whatever 1B you acquire in trade.

    I hate, HATE the Boston trade. It looks like a trade a Boston fan would put together. Four useless pieces (for the Braves) for a pretty serviceable #2/#3 who's signed to a good contract long term. Swihart is at best an offensive catcher along the lines of Saltalamacchia. Chavis is a guy who likely doesn't have a position. Longhi is a throw in with no upside. Ball is the LH version of Casey Kelley, a once highly touted prospect who's lost their fastball and is having to re-invent themselves as a soft tossing garbage guy.

    For me, I would want CF Benintendi, 3B Luis Basabe, RHP Pat Light and OF Josh Ockimey. At least you get a guy in Benintendi who is a "pencil in" starter for 2018. Light profiles as a useful reliever. Basabe is a high ceiling switch hitting 3B who is probably 3-4 years away and Ockimey is a power first base guy whose on the come.
    I'm not a fan of the JT trade either, but I think you're selling Chavis and Swihart short. Swihart profiles to be quite a bit better with the stick than Salty and Chavis was a first rounder still very young who's tearing it up in his second try in A ball.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    It doesn't but having Butler (or Swisher in 2016) precludes the team from needing to go find someone to stand at 1B until your real future 1B is ready. that means that what you are paying Butler is at least somewhat useful in the short term and isn't a straight write off.
    Swisher and Butler are negative WAR players. We always have the option of using our AAA first baseman or some waiver wire guy.

  3. #23
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    Echoing what others have said.... there's no reason to deal Julio unless we receive major pieces, his contract is enormously valuable.

    He's also signed through a period when the team is hoping to be competitive, and having his arm in the rotation would be a big part of that plan.

    That being said I'm completely FINE with trading him, because we aren't competing this year and aren't going to be very strong next year - we are to some degree wasting his healthy years right now, but the return has to be very good.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I think there are better ways to spend 10M than on a negative WAR player.
    we are not spending 10 million on him.. it is an investment in our future. He just comes along with it.. We didn't pay Bronson for Bronson..

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    we are not spending 10 million on him.. it is an investment in our future. He just comes along with it.. We didn't pay Bronson for Bronson..
    I'm assuming we will have a budget for major league salaries in 2017 and that spending 10M on Butler in 2017 will reduce what is available to spend on other major league players by a similar amount. Perhaps I am mistaken in this assumption.

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    I agree that I'm not interested in trading Julio unless it's an obvious overpay. I'm inclined to keep him unless we make out like bandits.
    I prefer to keep him, period, really.

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    JT is a solid MOR or better pitcher currently under contract for 4 more years after this season at a bargain rate. He is also the only "proven" guy in the rotation on a team trying to compete in 2017 (whatever "compete" means). There is no need to trade him now unless a Miller-like deal is presented. The package suggested in that article is one of those deals fans make up by throwing in quantity over quality, and is not good enough to give up JT. Unless a deal equal to about 2/3 of the Miller deal comes along, keep JT.

    The Braves should not be looking to unload JT (or any pitcher) until they only have 1-2+ years of control remaining. That is the best way to maximize the value of a pitching asset. JT doesn't reach that mark for another 2 years.

    The Oakland deal...meh. I don't agree with trading financial flexibility next year for a draft pick, but it is a reasonable deal. I would much rather see the money that would go to Butler used to sign a guy like Prado, Freese or Cervelli so the 2017 MLB team actually has a few MLB players on it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Swisher and Butler are negative WAR players. We always have the option of using our AAA first baseman or some waiver wire guy.
    WAR is irrelevant for 2016 or 2017 IMO. You aren't winning anyway. But, both Butler AND Swisher have been positive WAR guys in the past and it's always possible they play well enough to be that way again. At least they have a history of showing that they are ML players. Your stated AAA 1B is someone who isn't the long term answer since having a ready long term answer at 1B makes the point moot. So that means the AAA guy is probably a AAA journeyman/AAAA guy who could contribute significantly less WAR and still be an added cost of at least ML minimum on top of what you are committed to with Butler.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I'm assuming we will have a budget for major league salaries in 2017 and that spending 10M on Butler in 2017 will reduce what is available to spend on other major league players by a similar amount. Perhaps I am mistaken in this assumption.
    The FA market is a barren wasteland anyway. And since you are unlikely to compete in 2017 AND need to be breaking in young players, then the need to have a lot of room to be able to go sign players is less. Also, if the Braves do what is sensible and move Markakis, then the net between Markakis and Butler is a positive for the Braves.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    JT is a solid MOR or better pitcher currently under contract for 4 more years after this season at a bargain rate. He is also the only "proven" guy in the rotation on a team trying to compete in 2017 (whatever "compete" means). There is no need to trade him now unless a Miller-like deal is presented. The package suggested in that article is one of those deals fans make up by throwing in quantity over quality, and is not good enough to give up JT. Unless a deal equal to about 2/3 of the Miller deal comes along, keep JT.

    The Braves should not be looking to unload JT (or any pitcher) until they only have 1-2+ years of control remaining. That is the best way to maximize the value of a pitching asset. JT doesn't reach that mark for another 2 years.

    The Oakland deal...meh. I don't agree with trading financial flexibility next year for a draft pick, but it is a reasonable deal. I would much rather see the money that would go to Butler used to sign a guy like Prado, Freese or Cervelli so the 2017 MLB team actually has a few MLB players on it.
    What is the Budget? What is our committed payroll? I seriously doubt the FO is looking at Butler and saying.. crap if we didn't owe him 10 million we would have signed Prado...

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    What is the Budget? ...
    Believe it or not, a lot of things that can't be directly observed actually exist.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Believe it or not, a lot of things that can't be directly observed actually exist.
    We have roughly 50 million committed to next year.. I seriously doubt the Butler 10 million is going to prevent any FA signings... you can dance around that all you want.. but, trading for a bad contract that expires next year for a draft pick is a great business/organizational move..

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    We have roughly 50 million committed to next year.. I seriously doubt the Butler 10 million is going to prevent any FA signings... you can dance around that all you want.. but, trading for a bad contract that expires next year for a draft pick is a great business/organizational move..
    Yup.

    Basically the main reason you do this is so you can make a play for a player that drops in the draft. It's round about way of making the Touki trade all over again, which was a slam dunk for us, IMO.

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    I like both trades. More draft picks is self explanatory. The Red Sox trade I am fine with Swihart as the main piece. Catcher is a major weakness in the organization and its a notoriously hard position to develop. I have little doubt Swihart will be a major upgrade over what we have. He gives lineup versatility being a switch hitter which is something we sorely need and I hear he can play LF as well. Chavis was a guy I liked in the draft. He is doing exactly what you want to see from someone repeating a level, he cut his k rate in half and is mashing. He is only 20 at low A so he isnt old for the league. He has the tools to be a top prospect if he keeps this up. Ball and Longhi I biew as throw ins but I like those, never know.
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    Quote Originally Posted by yeezus View Post
    I agree that I'm not interested in trading Julio unless it's an obvious overpay. I'm inclined to keep him unless we make out like bandits.
    I prefer to keep him, period, really.
    Agree.

    Keep jt. If someone wants to do a 2/3 or better miller deal than fine. But we have to get a legit catcher who can hit or a rh power option plus to move on. I'm not doing the poo poo platter deal.

    Sox have some legit young guys and they have to put one in the deal.

    Oakland deal I like if the money is still there to make a couple of mid priced signings. If 10 million really will max your buyer then u have a budget problem.

    If we trade jt then markakis and ff are the only ppl on the team making any money.

    White sox need bp help and a lh bat. Anyone think markakis plus a bp arm gets us anything? Do they have anyone wed vie up viz for?

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    Let's not do the Teheran deal. I like Blake a lot and he's a good high-upside bat, but I say let's look somewhere else. I'd LOVE to work out something with Colorado or the Brewers.

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    I think we will take on substantial salary next year. I'd rather do it with players who can contribute in the wins and losses columns rather than someone like Butler. Candidates I have in mind include Kemp, Braun and McCann among trade targets, and Prado, Freese and Ian Desmond among FA targets. The trade targets should not cost too much in terms of talent because they carry large salaries that absorb most if not all of their surplus value.

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    I am not a fan of trading for Braun or kemp. They are getting older, lost some defensive value and are owed a lot of money for several more years. I know we are desperate for RH power but let's not make a mistake that will limit our options when we should compete. If we can trade for someone like Brisbon and sign Cervelli we will be in good shape next season.

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    I think we would pass on Butler. We have plenty of DHs already. Hope we can keep Freeman.

    If we trade JT, we need upper level (AA/AAA) prospects who can be called up in August or September.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    I don't think Butler damages our 2017. I don't think we are going to be huge spenders there anyway. We can field a .500 team with our without his contract.
    I don't know if Butler can field .500 at this point in his career.

    As per Teheran, I am still bullish on him. I'm with Harry, you don't trade him for four maybes. You trade him for two guys with a pretty decent chance of developing into quality starters. If that's not in the offing, hold onto him until somebody cracks.

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