Braves sign Freeman to 8 year 135M deal! *Updated to 135m*

[thewupk]

I completely disagree with that line of thinking. One of the best line drive hitters I ever saw was Gary Sheffield. Sheff had 8 different seasons with over 30 homeruns. I think the reason Votto has only done it once is because of how much he walks because of teams pitching around him to get to Brandon Phillips. If Votto had better protection he would get more pitches to hit and hit more homeruns. I mean last year he walked 135 times. In 2012 in just 111 games he walked 94 times. In 2011 he walked 110 times. He's not seeing many pitches to hit.

We only have batted ball data from 2002 onward but from 02-09 Sheffield had a line drive rate of 17.2%. Freeman so far in his career has a line drive rate of 25.1%. Freeman hits way more line drives. Votto walks a lot because he has a good eye and doesn't chase not because he doesn't have protection. And it's not like Phillips or Bruce are poor hitters. Even last year when Phillips did have a bad year he did his best with men on base so walking Votto to get to Phillips was pretty pointless.

Freeman is a strong guy and when he does connect on a pitch like that it goes a long ways. But his natural swing is to go gap to gap like Helton did. But Freeman doesn't have the benefit of playing in Coors all the time like Helton did.

[Runnin]

All I want out of Freeman is another 100 rbi season.

[thewupk]

All I want out of Freeman is another 100 rbi season.

Better hope Heyward is leading off then. Otherwise he won't have anyone to drive in.

[AUTiger7222]

Terrible comparison. Sheff had WAY more raw power than Freddie. He had some of the quickest wrists you'll ever see in the history of the sport.

Freddie isn't likely to average 30 HRS per yr, though I he might have a yr or two in his peak where he hits over 30. That isn't a knock of Freddie but he has more of a line drive swing than a home run swing, which is what makes him such a good overall hitter. And 30 homers now is like 40 homers 10 yrs ago. In the post steroid era you simply aren't going to have but may be 5-10 players every yr hitting over 30 bombs.

I wasn't comparing Freeman to Sheff. I was just stating you can be a linedrive hitter and still hit a lot of homeruns.

[AUTiger7222]

We only have batted ball data from 2002 onward but from 02-09 Sheffield had a line drive rate of 17.2%. Freeman so far in his career has a line drive rate of 25.1%. Freeman hits way more line drives. Votto walks a lot because he has a good eye and doesn't chase not because he doesn't have protection. And it's not like Phillips or Bruce are poor hitters. Even last year when Phillips did have a bad year he did his best with men on base so walking Votto to get to Phillips was pretty pointless.

Freeman is a strong guy and when he does connect on a pitch like that it goes a long ways. But his natural swing is to go gap to gap like Helton did. But Freeman doesn't have the benefit of playing in Coors all the time like Helton did.

Votto has been criticized for taking too many close pitches that he could possibly do damage on and taking a walk. Phillips is indeed a horrible hitter. Bruce is a solid hitter but he doesn't hit directly behind Bruce. Pitchers walk Votto because they know they can get Phillips out.

[keithlaw]

People also need to adjust there expectations for power hitters. 10 years ago there would be ~10 guys a year with 40 HR seasons, but there have only been 10 40 HR seasons total over the past 3 years. 30 HR last season would have tied for 11th most in MLB. Freeman did show more power in the second half of last season though. He hit 14 HR in 239 PA and had a 20% HR/FB% while still hitting tons of linedrives. I wouldn't be surprised if he averaged 30 HR a year over his peak seasons which are still 2 years away

[thewupk]

Votto has been criticized for taking too many close pitches that he could possibly do damage on and taking a walk. Phillips is indeed a horrible hitter. Bruce is a solid hitter but he doesn't hit directly behind Bruce. Pitchers walk Votto because they know they can get Phillips out.

And Phillips made them pay dearly last year for it. Also Bonds and Ted Williams got criticized for taking too many walks too. It's generally a bad idea to swing at balls with the idea that you can possibly do damage.

[AUTiger7222]

People also need to adjust there expectations for power hitters. 10 years ago there would be ~10 guys a year with 40 HR seasons, but there have only been 10 40 HR seasons total over the past 3 years. 30 HR last season would have tied for 11th most in MLB. Freeman did show more power in the second half of last season though. He hit 14 HR in 239 PA and had a 20% HR/FB% while still hitting tons of linedrives. I wouldn't be surprised if he averaged 30 HR a year over his peak seasons which are still 2 years away

Thank you! There's no reason to think Freeman can't hit 30 bombs a season on average during the peak seasons of his career. 14 plus 14 equals 28. 28 is only 2 less than 30.

[stpeteirish]

Sheffield took PEDs. And from 02 on, SHeffield never had a LD% over 20% and after leaving the Braves never went above 18%. That was 3 of his seasons over 30 homers. Freddie hits WAY more linedrives than that.

I don't know about the PED part (and neither do you) but Sheffield was exceptionally strong. If he took em, he must have started early.

[zitothebrave]

I don't know about the PED part (and neither do you) but Sheffield was exceptionally strong. If he took em, he must have started early.

Those were 2 complete and different truths. First that he took PEDs. Second that the time we have data and he had 3 of his 30+ season homers, his LD wasn't anywhere near freeman's

[yeezus]

Clearly you haven't been here much. Basically nobody on the Braves can or will regress this season.

No one has said that, guy. Please to point to ONE post where ANYONE said "no one on the braves can regress this year.""

[sgtpepper1972]

No one has said that, guy. Please to point to ONE post where ANYONE said "no one on the braves can regress this year.""

Except for his post? ;-)

[NinersSBChamps]

Except for his post? ;-)

Not going to even start with you.

[thethe]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotst...joey-votto-mlb


I said this in Freemans rookie season but its very similar to the Bruce/Votto situation. Everyone thought Bruce would be the second coming but Votto became the better player. Now, I believe that Heyward will be better than Bruce but Freeman is going to be a superior hitter.

[zitothebrave]

Ummm, Freddie has 1 season of being a superior hitter to Jason's norm. Lets not write off Jason's hitting ability.

I seriously hope Freddie becomes Votto, that would rock, but I won't hold my breath. Votto on his career walks just about 15%, I don't think Freddie has that for a full season much less averaging that for a career.

[thethe]

I hate when people use career stats with young players. i don't care what Freeman did his first two years when he was 21/22. All I know is that right now he is a much better hitter than Heyward. Don't get me wrong I love Jason and hope he signs a 10 year deal to stay here. Its not a knock on Jason to say that Freddie is the superior hitter. Jason is a fantastic fielder and baserunner.

[nsacpi]

I hate when people use career stats with young players. i don't care what Freeman did his first two years when he was 21/22. All I know is that right now he is a much better hitter than Heyward. Don't get me wrong I love Jason and hope he signs a 10 year deal to stay here. Its not a knock on Jason to say that Freddie is the superior hitter. Jason is a fantastic fielder and baserunner.

What odds are you giving that Freddie will post a higher OPS than Jason in 2014.

[Orphan Black]

Jason's norm right now is to get hurt for half the season.

Freddie's numbers so far have been better than Heywards offensively. Pretty much in every way except speed.

Ummm, Freddie has 1 season of being a superior hitter to Jason's norm. Lets not write off Jason's hitting ability.

I seriously hope Freddie becomes Votto, that would rock, but I won't hold my breath. Votto on his career walks just about 15%, I don't think Freddie has that for a full season much less averaging that for a career.

[thethe]

What odds are you giving that Freddie will post a higher OPS than Jason in 2014.

I'm not an oddsmaker so I wouldn't know even how to phrase the odds. But, I would feel extremely comfortable with the statement that Freddie will have a higher OPS than Jason in 2014.

[zitothebrave]

Jason's norm right now is to get hurt for half the season.

Freddie's numbers so far have been better than Heywards offensively. Pretty much in every way except speed.

Heyward has one terrible season His numbers outside of 2011 are .268/.359/..457 (fulldiclosure, didn't calculate sluggin it just guessed since his 12-13 and 10 were right next to each other) Freddie is sitting at .285/.358/.466

Aside from Jason's bad year he and Freddie have been about equals offensively. Freddie has a higher BABIP, and that's the big difference.