Predict the Rotation

[Theduke81]

Julio Shields Folty Wacha Wisler

[Chico]

Phillies aren't picking up Charlie Morton's option. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up in our rotation.

The Cards picking up Garcia's option makes him likely to be trade bait now.

[Enscheff]

Considering Coppy has said the Braves are looking to add stability to the rotation, I don't think any pitcher with an injury history like Holland's is a likely target. Same with Rich Hill.

That's why I think Shields is a likely target. Santana is another possible option. Odorizzi is a decent, though more expensive, target. Verlander is a pipe dream, but at least he qualifies as stable.

Basically, if the guy hasn't thrown 400+ innings over the last 3 years, I don't see how anyone can consider him "stable".

[CJ9]

What's the draw to Shields that I'm missing? His Ks plummeted, walks went up, FIP of 6.01 and his velocity dropped. No way I'm interested in that.

[rawwr]

What's the draw to Shields that I'm missing? His Ks plummeted, walks went up, FIP of 6.01 and his velocity dropped. No way I'm interested in that.

Yeah and he'll also be 35 on opening day. It's not a bad idea to take on a recovery project, but he doesn't have all that much time left to rebound.

[Enscheff]

Yeah and he'll also be 35 on opening day. It's not a bad idea to take on a recovery project, but he doesn't have all that much time left to rebound.

There is no draw really. The point is he represents a guy that can eat 200 innings and will essentially be acquired for free, just like Kemp was. Also like Kemp, there is a non-zero chance he can rebound to something closer to his past performance. Finally, like Kemp, he is a "name" player the FO can sell to the fans as someone looking to rededicate himself and get back on track in a Braves uniform after some struggles. "Big Game James is coming to the Braves to teach the young guys how to win!!", or something as equally silly as being a Braves fan and owning a Braves jacket since he was 12.

I don't predict Shields in the rotation because I want him on the Braves. I predict him in the rotation because Coppy has repeatedly stated they will not trade prospects for a "quick fix". Coppy also said they are looking to add stability to the rotation, and that's one thing Shields can provide. The Kemp trade represents precisely the type of trade I expect the Braves to make to acquire 1 of the 2 SPs they will add this offseason.

The other will be a non-QO guy that can be relied upon to eat ~150 innings, so I picked the LHer De La Rosa to fit the bill.

Folks expecting the Braves to trade the assets required to land a guy like Sale, Quintana, Archer, Verlander, Gray or even lesser guys like Odorizzi or Santana, simply haven't been paying attention to everything the team has done and said the last 3 years. They are not going to deplete the farm to push for contention, at least not yet. The ONLY asset with any real value the Braves could trade for an impact pitcher is one of Mallex or Inciarte since they are somewhat redundant players, so if the other team doesn't need a cost controlled CFer it's not reasonable to suggest a trade with them.

[CJ9]

Folks expecting the Braves to trade the assets required to land a guy like Sale, Quintana, Archer, Verlander, Gray or even lesser guys like Odorizzi or Santana, simply haven't been paying attention to everything the team has done and said the last 3 years.

I don't think many realistic people on here expect this to be the offseason where they deal for an ace. But I do think they'll be able to find a middle ground between those upper level aces and James Shields.

[clvclv]

What's the draw to Shields that I'm missing? His Ks plummeted, walks went up, FIP of 6.01 and his velocity dropped. No way I'm interested in that.

Really think everyone is just tossing out their personal preferences - it is the start of silly season after all.

I wouldn't go near Shields either, but that's me. Holland's injury history is concerning, sure. The thing about him is that his deal is optional for each season, meaning that if he can't somehow give you meaningful innings in 2017, you could just cut him loose. The same thing applies in the event that Blair, Newcomb, or Fried took steps forward (would obviously need to be a big one in Fried's case, but if he could somehow get through 2017 healthy I wouldn't completely discount him when considering options for the 2018 rotation personally).

The biggest thing working in Holland's favor (just from my perspective) is that if/when healthy, he's definitely a better Pitcher than most of the other options that have been discussed - IF the brass is remotely attempting to be competitive.

Obviously that's as big an "if" as Holland's health, but given his health concerns, he likely could be had for those "non-core" prospects we hope Coppy would be willing to give up - guys like Gant/Jenkins/Sims/Jenkins/etc. because my guess would be that there aren't going to be many other suitors willing to give up serious prospect value for him.

[smootness]

Teheran, Folty, Wisler, Kershaw, Blair

[bravesfanMatt]

Teheran, Folty, Wisler, Kershaw, Blair

NO way we trade for Kershaw and Blair not be a major piece of the return. your list fails!!

[clvclv]

Teheran, Folty, Wisler, Kershaw, Blair

Clyde Kershaw - *ell yeah!!!

[nsacpi]

I don't think many realistic people on here expect this to be the offseason where they deal for an ace. But I do think they'll be able to find a middle ground between those upper level aces and James Shields.

Yeah. I think we'll find a couple "middle ground" type guys in the FA market.

[nsacpi]

There is no draw really. The point is he represents a guy that can eat 200 innings and will essentially be acquired for free, just like Kemp was. Also like Kemp, there is a non-zero chance he can rebound to something closer to his past performance. Finally, like Kemp, he is a "name" player the FO can sell to the fans as someone looking to rededicate himself and get back on track in a Braves uniform after some struggles.

Even before the trade, I thought there were good grounds to think Kemp would be a decent pickup. His walk rate looked weirdly low compared to the rest of his career. His power was still there. BABIP was a bit low compared to career norms. Plus I thought his defensive limitations would not be as big a deal in a smaller park.

To me it is a lot harder to anticipate a partial rebound out of Shields. I realize we can get him for a song. But I don't understand the point. There are better options in the FA market. So we can boost our rotation without giving up prospects.

[Enscheff]

Even before the trade, I thought there were good grounds to think Kemp would be a decent pickup. His walk rate looked weirdly low compared to the rest of his career. His power was still there. BABIP was a bit low compared to career norms. Plus I thought his defensive limitations would not be as big a deal in a smaller park.

To me it is a lot harder to anticipate a partial rebound out of Shields. I realize we can get him for a song. But I don't understand the point. There are better options in the FA market. So we can boost our rotation without giving up prospects.

I do not "want" Shields in the rotation. This is not a prediction I made because I want to run out and buy a Braves jersey with Shields on the back of it. I am taking in all the facts as we know them, which are:

1. The Braves are looking for "stability" in the rotation.
2. The Braves will not trade from the future for a "quick fix".
3. The Braves will not sign anyone with a QO attached.
4. The FA market is barren of reliable pitchers.
5. The Braves have already taken on a salary dump "name" in Matt Kemp.
6. The Braves MUST appear to be building a contender this offseason.

And cross referencing them with facts about Shields:

1. The ChiSox owe him $24M over the next 2 years.
2. He is probably (practically) free to acquire.
3. He is about the closest thing to a lock for 30+ starts and 200+ innings that exists in modern day MLB.
4. He can be sold to the fans as a "name" that has won before and will rebound with the Braves.
5. He has a non-zero chance of once again becoming a 1-2 WAR guy and "worth" $12M per season.

There is no FA pitcher without a QO attached that can offer the stability of being relied upon for 200+ innings next year, especially not for a contract in the 2/24 range. In fact, I would argue there aren't any FA pitchers that can be relied upon to pitch another 200 innings in a starting rotation over the course of their next contract, period.

I do think the Braves will make a FA acquisition, and I think that guy will be De La Rosa. I do not think they are going to beat the market for 2 SPs that are actually good enough to slot into the rotation of a team that must appear to be a contender. Expecting them to do outbid the rest of the league for 2 such FA pitchers is being pretty naive about the kinds of FA expenditures the Braves typically make.

If the Braves trade for Shields he will not be good, just like Kemp is not and will not be good. However, that's the kind of move I expect them to make to fill 1 rotation spot.

[bravesfanMatt]

All the colmentor picks are not looking so hot right now!!!

[emk418]

NO way we trade for Kershaw and Blair not be a major piece of the return. your list fails!!

Blair's not a major piece of any trade at this point. Severely hurt his value last year

[Enscheff]

Blair's not a major piece of any trade at this point. Severely hurt his value last year

Somebody missed the sarcasm...

[nsacpi]

Somebody missed the sarcasm...

It was so subtle. Easy to miss.

[CrimsonCowboy]

This is simply a "pie in the sky guess" on my part:

Julio Teheran
Alex Cobb (pie in the sky trade guess)
Mike Foltyniewicz
Matt Wisler
Aaron Blair

[GovClintonTyree]

Teheran, Folty, Wisler, Kershaw, Blair

Is that Larry Kershaw?