Jaw (05-28-2019)
Bullpen issue was more not picking up lower cost options than big tickets.
Riley reminds me more and more of Troy Glaus the more I see of him. The swing, the size, everything. I hate to put that kind of comp on a kid but he's the spitting image of Glaus.
Trading prospects is bad mmmkay
"Donald Trump will serve a second term as president of the United States.
It’s over."
Little Thethe Nov 19, 2020.
jpx7 (05-23-2019)
I’ve watched all of the Riley at bats. I like watching him hit. I have my concerns long term but this is a lot of fun. He’s a good player no doubt. I’m hoping he’s a difference maker over time but we will see.
I never wanted jtr. I wanted us to get grandal like the brewers did. Offer big money for 1-2 years. Higher salary less years. That would be my plan for all free agents. Ideally team options even if they are crazy high options.
jpx7 (05-24-2019)
I was against JTR trade from the get go since catcher wasn't a need, but I slowly faded towards to being ok with it as it looked inevitable. Glad it didn't happen. But I'll still trade him for Haniger in a heartbeat.
Haniger is batting like .232 with around 1.3 WAR and 12 dingers. I have to think Riley would outperform that if up the whole season to this point.
We have two really really promising outfielders that should be in AAA by the end of this season and Guys like Duvall and Demeritte playing great with not a shot to even get a shot....oh and a gold glove center fielder just hoping that he won’t come back as our fourth outfielder.
Things have changed. Haniger is not really a need at all anymore.
I’m real excited about what Riley has done so far but that K-rate is starting to get up there and his walk rate is almost non existant. If he can’t mske adjustments in those 2 areas he will eventually be exposed.
jpx7 (05-25-2019)
Like a .250 BABIP though. He has a career high ISO as well. Not to mention, 1.3 WAR would put him tied for 3rd on our team currently, behind FF and Acuna.
Granted he is 28 already, which I forgot. Still, he's proven to be a 4 WAR player and is controllable for like 4 more years.
jpx7 (05-25-2019)
jpx7 (05-25-2019)
Those projections are for the rest of the season...so they project him at 3-4 wins overall. Haniger is exactly the player everyone thought he was.
We do know a few things about Riley now, and none of them have to do with his 1.000+ OPS that's hyper-inflated by a .450 BABIP and 50% HR/FB rate (I'm going to assume we no longer have to discuss how unsustainable those numbers are...):
1. His power is legit, but not top of the scale. His hardest hit ball before tonight (I don't know the exit velocity on the double) didn't quite top 110 mph. That puts his raw power in the tier below Acuna/JD with Freeman/Flowers/Markakis/Albies(RHH).
2. His Z-Contact% of 60.8% is well below MLB average of ~85%. There isn't a single qualified MLB hitter that makes contact with pitches in the zone less frequently.
3. His O-Swing% is 43.3%, and would rank #3 in MLB if he were a qualified hitter, tied with Javy Baez...the poster-child for wild swingers.
4. We worry about his ability to catch up to FAs, but the league isn't throwing him many. His 46.2% FA% would rank #158 out of 170 qualified batters.
What I see so far is a good power hitter with a bit of a long swing that is guessing FA often and cheating for it. When he gets it in the zone, he causes damage. When he guesses wrong he either swings at a bad pitch, or fails to make contact altogether.
Add all that up and you get a young mistake hitter who is up there guessing, and is obviously going to K a lot as a result. Only time will tell if he can adjust to MLB quality sequencing, but MLB pitchers will let us know pretty soon. Of course, we have seen Riley make adjustments and improve many times already in many different facets of being a professional baseball player, so it would be pretty dumb to suggest he won't make adjustments at the MLB level to correct these fairly obvious issues.
Last edited by Enscheff; 05-26-2019 at 12:02 AM.
AerchAngel (05-26-2019), Jaw (05-28-2019), jpx7 (05-26-2019)
The doctor, Dr. Scheff analysis.
He is usually, well mostly, right.
Chopping With The Braves And Rolling With The Tide