Why would you trade Gattis? You trade him if you can improve the team. That's the goal. right?
Why would you trade Gattis? You trade him if you can improve the team. That's the goal. right?
BravesfanMike (12-18-2013)
Great trade. Sucks to lose gilmartin but an at most 4 starter for what basically gattis was for us.
Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg
It's not that we discount Gilmartin because of one bad year, but moreso Doumit has proven more at the level for many more years that's most important whereas Gilmartin has not.Originally Posted by BRule
What is your obsession with Gilmartin? He is behind many of our other guys in the minors, and his ceiling wasn't very high to begin with.
We got a proven bench player which was a major weakness for us in the 2nd half when everybody got injured.
Forever Fredi
Well, if that's the case, unload Heyward, Freeman, or Upton RIGHT now.
I don't care about Gilmartin, it's the stupid spin that is being spun by posts/beat guys/everyone. Gilmartin had 1 down year and we sell at his very lowest for "Eric Hinske"
The Atlanta Braves signed Nick Markakis for 4/45 - Never forget 12/3/2014
"Klay Thompson > James Harden" - Heyward
"Chris Bosh is the MVP of the Miami Heat" - Heyward
"Hibbert is better than Dwight Howard"- Heyward
"Steven Adams will be a top 10 center in two years - thethe
If they make the team better you do it. If we can spin them for harper trout and price.
Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg
Gilmartins peak is a b- prospect. We traded him as a c+ prospect. Its not like we traded graham. then you'd have a point.
Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg
Doumit is a better guy to have on the bench than Hinske, IMO. He could end up being a very good piece off the bench for us, like Gattis was last year.
Again, what did you expect Gilmartin to contribute to the ML team, and when? He was behind a lot of other guys in the org. and was never much of a prize to begin with. Doumit will likely provide more value this year than Gilmartin ever would.
In short, losing Gilmartin is nothing to complain about. We will not miss him. Whiners gonna whine.
Our AAA rotation will have five of these six: Hale, Thomas, Martin, Northcraft, Maya, Schlosser. When you look at it this way, you see we are not giving up much in the way of AAA depth by trading Gilmartin. We traded away from a position where we have a lot of depth. Our pen in AAA is very strong too.
Gilmartin is a decent prospect. I think he'll be a 4th or 5th starter someday. But I don't think it was going to be with the Braves. Too much competition.
Last edited by nsacpi; 12-18-2013 at 05:41 PM.
There seems to be somewhat of a skewed logic regarding Gilmartin, or someone like him. Several on here are saying, and correctly so, that Gilmartin will not be missed as we have several guys ahead of him. While that is true, it doesn't change the fact that you still want to maximize your return on any investment. Just because Sean most likely wasn't in our plans doesn't mean it is OK to trade him for cents on the dollar.
lol
Did we trade him for cents on the dollar? Perhaps we shopped his value and came up with little. The Braves made a mistake taking him in the 1st round. He's a low-ceiling type of guy who may never pitch much, if at all, in the majors.
A lot of overreaction here. Suddenly, a prospect becomes junk after traded or released. The junior Minor comparison wasn't that ridiculous. His upside was LH backend of the rotation. Yeah, he had a rough season. Not many freaked out over Tehran's 2012 Gwinnett season, and that was his 2nd year in AAA. OK, so Gilmartin fell down the depth chart, but he's hardly just holding on to a potential major league. Not saying he's destined for stardom either, but he's got a chance to contribute. Notice also that few had high hopes for Morton and Locke, the latter who appeared in the AS game. So, Braves pitchers are in demand with other teams, and these days seem to establish themselves.
As for the trade, itself, it seems all right. Nothing to complain about. It'll be interesting to see what else this means. The current 40-man roster lists Doumit at catcher with Gattis in OF. Hoping that Bethancourt gets to spend a full year at AAA to work on hitting. Still intrigued by his potential.
In terms of looking at this purely from a value point of view it was a fair trade.
Doumit is being paid the going rate for half a win. Two of the past three years he's been worth 1.5 WAR. I would expect that from him in 2014, generating a surplus value of 1 WAR.
Valuing Gilmartin is tougher. We can start with something we all agree on. He is not an elite prospect, not a candidate for BA's Top 100 prospects. He is probably not in the Top 200 prospects in the minors. Once you start looking at prospects in that range the average value these kinds of prospects generate is not that high. Sure a few surprise and generate a fair amount of value. But many wash out. Others have brief major league careers. On average those kinds of prospects will generate surplus value in the 0.5-1.0 WAR range.
I won't argue against the proposition that Gilmartin could do better than that. He is young, has a good pedigree and has some upside. But even before this past season when he had the shoulder problem he was not that highly rated as a prospect.
This is a fair trade. Moreover, it matches up the divergent needs of the Braves and Twins pretty well. The Braves have more of an interest in winning now, and Doumit fills a particular need they have for the bench. The Twins are rebuilding and willing to take a chance on a young pitcher with some upside. It is a solid trade. For both teams.
I think it is fair to bring up Morton and Locke. Some of the prospects further downs the lists do pan out. But you have to also remember the others who didn't make it. The Bubba Nelsons and Jung Bongs and Anthony Lerews. Once you get to prospects ranked about where Gilmartin currently is, the average value they go on to generate is pretty low.
Gilmartin isn't garbage, but it's not likely he ever maintains status as a #4, even if he makes a few starts. It's much more likely he ends up as a long-man or rotation fodder. So I'm down with the org. hedging their bets and taking small risks. If Gilmartin pans out to a solid #4 for years and years, I'll be stunned. Good prospects have a high fail rate. Gilmartin is average at best.
I have never thought much of Gilmartin. So what I said had nothing to do with "overreaction" but was in line with my opinion of him all along. Just ask nsacpi, I expect that he will remember that I've never been high on Gilmartin.
that's a nice yearly decline going on there
Doumit's 32 and had a major drop off last year. That's somewhat disconcerting. OTOH he had pretty nice numbers as a part time player with Pit and wasn't bad in 2012. Looks to me like both orgs had a sell now before he goes from declining to worthless moment. Braves will probably get a decent bench guy and Twins might get another Scott Diamond, or whatever his name was. Their pitching is so bad Gilmartin may help them a lot more than he'd ever help us.
Doumit's 3.5 mill salary is also kinda high for what he is, at least we're the team taking on money rater than dumping.
Why would you expect him to duplicate his 2011 (1.6) and 2012 (1.4) WAR's but not last year's (0.1) and 2010's (0.3)? Probably the most fair or accurate way to predict 2014 would be to average the four years together which would be (0.85) minus the (0.50) we will be paying him which provides surplus value of 0.35 WAR. Given your analysis that someone of Gilmartin's ilk is probably worth 0.5 - 1.0 WAR, the middle of that is 0.75 WAR which would mean we traded Gilmartin for roughly 50 cents on the dollar. Does it help both clubs? Yes. But we should have gotten more than one year of Doumit for Gilmartin.
Last edited by skillet; 12-18-2013 at 06:36 PM.
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