Braves Sign Adeiny Hechavarría; Camargo and Duvall Optioned; Bryse Wilson Recalled

[nsacpi]

doesn't have to be anything fancy...for example

Drew Waters: very unlikely he can sustain the .400 plus BABIP he has put up in AA and AAA. Good chance he will be a high BABIP hitter in the majors which means .330-.340. It is unlikely he would improve on his walk and strikeout rates if promoted to the majors this year. So we are talking about a 5% BB rate and a +30% K rate. Unlike Riley, Waters has not shown much power in the minors this year. It would be unrealistic to project a power surge if he was promoted to the majors this year.

[nsacpi]

From Pache I would expect similar hitting as Waters with a bit less BABIP and fewer Ks. And more defense.

Bottom line: there is no reasonable projection that would favor Pache and Waters over the other alternatives. They might get hot and outperform projections. But so might the alternatives.

Our best alternative the next few weeks is to get by with some combination of Joyce, Culberson, Duvall and Ortega.

LaMarre and Camargo could come into play but I would leave them in AAA for now.

[DirkPiggler]

doesn't have to be anything fancy...for example

Drew Waters: very unlikely he can sustain the .400 plus BABIP he has put up in AA and AAA. Good chance he will be a high BABIP hitter in the majors which means .330-.340. It is unlikely he would improve on his walk and strikeout rates if promoted to the majors this year. So we are talking about a 5% BB rate and a +30% K rate. Unlike Riley, Waters has not shown much power in the minors this year. It would be unrealistic to project a power surge if he was promoted to the majors this year.

Compare those to what we can expect from Ortega, LaMarre, Duvall, etc. I assume that the minimum expectation for Pache and Waters would be similar. If the expected production is nearly the same, it would make sense to go with the player with the most upside. Factor in defense with Pache, and the fact that the roster as constructed doesn’t have a true CF, and the decision tilts even more in favor of going young.Service time shouldn’t be a consideration for a team with a legitimate chance at a decent playoff run.

[nsacpi]

Compare those to what we can expect from Ortega, LaMarre, Duvall, etc. I assume that the minimum expectation for Pache and Waters would be similar. If the expected production is nearly the same, it would make sense to go with the player with the most upside. Factor in defense with Pache, and the fact that the roster as constructed doesn’t have a true CF, and the decision tilts even more in favor of going young.Service time shouldn’t be a consideration for a team with a legitimate chance at a decent playoff run.

With the others I would apply a 10-15% haircut to their AAA numbers. The results are far from favoring Pache and Waters, even when accounting for defense.