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Thread: The 2018 Midterms

  1. #441
    I <3 Ron Paul + gilesfan sturg33's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 57Brave View Post
    It kinda did. 7 Governorships, 6 or 7 state houses, ballot initiatives and easy big guy, lots of women making laws.
    This is besides winning back the House

    but this is all below the surface politics which you tend to avoid


    there will be 4 or 5 red states signing onto Medicade expansion, which is kinda big deal if you live in those states.
    1.4M voters were restored to Florida's voting rolls. Ones that were expunged in the Jeb Bush voter purge of 2000. Remember that ? Where his brother who before getting us into o a senseless war and knee jerk reacting in Afghanistan , won by what a hundred votes or something.
    Supposing those voters voted Tuesday Gillum and Nelson are shoe ins as well as Trump never wins Fla in 2016

    Scott Walker the Koch sponsored Governor in Wisconsin was one of the not so lucky this time .

    So yeah it coulda been better but, what couldn't ?
    Very happy about the voting results in florida. Glad the votes will be restored as they should be (as an aside, anyone have an opinion why convicted criminals are considered shoe-in democratic votes?)

    Also thrilled about the marijuana expansion... it's gonna be hilarious when Trump is the President who ends marijuana prohibition and does more for minorities with that one move than anyone has done in two centuries. That's a results on the field thing though, which I know you're not interested in.

    Opposing party won seats. That's what happens after every new President. It's just that, the dems did it very poorly when compared historically.

    I'm glad more states will expand medicaid. The states can do whatever they want and when they go bankrupt, then can pivot. The 10th amendment is a beautiful thing. How's that affordable health insurance working out nationally, anyway... Last I saw premiums have more than doubled since 2013. Nice work government!

  2. #442
    I <3 Ron Paul + gilesfan sturg33's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 57Brave View Post

    and before you start with nonsense, no one promised you a " blue wave."
    say what now?

    hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

    They even made that dumb emoji for it for everyone to tweet and text about it.

    c'mon 57, you can do better than that

    And you're right... a pony is pretty cheap... the $40T campaigned on with "just pay for it" funds will be a tougher sell.

  3. #443
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    Damn white women and them not voting democrat. Those racist sexist women not falling in line and tatooing BETO on their dogs.

    Let's shame them some more and next time they will. ****ing sexist white women! White women are the worst!


  4. #444
    It's OVER 5,000! Jaw's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Pointing out facts is not a superiority complex unless you are offended by those facts.

    The fact is the typical Trump supporter is less intelligent than their more progressive counterparts. In fact, that is the largest demographic divide between Trump supporters and non-supporters.

    Another fact is that white america is terrified of no longer being the dominant demographic. If all someone has is being white, they are even more terrified. Pointing out that there’s a monster under the bed is all it takes to make them single issue voters.

    I realize arguing facts is in style nowadays as part of the push against progress, but that doesn’t make facts untrue.

    Until the Left realizes the singular issue to Trump’s base is the fear of losing power, they will never beat him. This “blue wave” was little more than a ripple despite all the fires up rhetoric we saw from the Left.
    FACTS!
    Facts.
    Facts?

    You're the stats guy, so I am eagerly awaiting the statistics you undoubtedly have on hand to back up the negative characterizations you make of nearly half the country.
    Go get him!

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  5. #445
    I <3 Ron Paul + gilesfan sturg33's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaw View Post
    FACTS!
    Facts.
    Facts?

    You're the stats guy, so I am eagerly awaiting the statistics you undoubtedly have on hand to back up the negative characterizations you make of nearly half the country.
    Hell I'm still waiting on his facts about his economics argument with me 6 months ago.

    Good at insults. Not so great with substance. Quite Trumpian

  6. #446
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ronald Rump View Post
    Amazed Tester came back and won in Montana. Thought for sure Trump would push Rosendale over the line.

    Dems picked up Heller's seat in Nevada.

    Although Beto didn't win the Senate seat, he appears to have helped the party pick up House seats in Texas.

    Nelson wants a recount in Florida, not sure it will be enough.

    Going to be interesting to see what happens in Arizona now with the million early ballots yet to be counted until a few more days.
    Montana seems like the type of place where Trump's rhetoric would do more harm than good. Tester is more the straightforward personality that guys who are snowed in for a quarter of the year are likely to respect, even if they often disagree with him.
    Go get him!

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  7. #447
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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    Hell I'm still waiting on his facts about his economics argument with me 6 months ago.

    Good at insults. Not so great with substance. Quite Trumpian
    Nice to see you back Sturg.
    Go get him!

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  8. #448
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    The most progressive candidates didn't do so well. I don't think running campaigns on socialism and identity politics is a winning strategy yet

    https://www.commentarymagazine.com/p...ives-collapse/

    National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar and the Nation contributor Sean McElwee put together a list of eight of the country’s most progressive candidates in challenging races in a helpful effort to gauge just how receptive the public was to the modern progressive message. Today, we have the answer: not very.

  9. #449
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaw View Post
    Nice to see you back Sturg.
    Was a good month. Checked in a few times. Saw the echo chamber.

    But after seeing all the "senate popular vote" on twitter today, had to come back to see which poster said it here.

    Luckily none so far but I still bet it comes

  10. #450
    A Chip Off the Old Rock Julio3000's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    Good night for dems? Sure. They took back the house.

    Compared to expectations? Pretty poor night, in my opinion. They flipped what, 27 seats? That's the lowest to a new President since 1946. If there was ever a time for a tsunami as nsacpi promised us, it would be against this President. Momentum was there. Hatred for Trump was there. And they flipped 27 seats and lost Senate seats. 2010 flipped 63 house seats and 6 senate seats.

    Well, it wasn’t a tsunami. By the time all the votes are counted, though, the House will probably be closer to to my prediction of +35 than +27.

    I think it’s fair to say that the D senate candidates underperformed—or were swamped by Trump turnout—but let’s not forget how awful this year was for the D senate: defending 6 seats in states that went double-digits for Trump in 2016. I really thought Nelson would win and that McCaskill was closer, but those were the only surprises.

    Downballot, it was a pretty good night for Democrats. The governorships and statehouses in the Midwest will be important going forward. And while you can poke at “Senate gerrymandering” strawmen all you want, the House is gerrymandered all to ****, which was one thing keeping a 9+% vote margin from becoming a wave.

    It wasn’t a great night for Democrats, but the idea that the House flipped in an election held in a good economy is probably worth some consideration. In general, I’m probably a long-term buyer on diversity and youth and a seller on an aging, monochrome base.

  11. #451
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    Quote Originally Posted by Julio3000 View Post
    Well, it wasn’t a tsunami. By the time all the votes are counted, though, the House will probably be closer to to my prediction of +35 than +27.

    I think it’s fair to say that the D senate candidates underperformed—or were swamped by Trump turnout—but let’s not forget how awful this year was for the D senate: defending 6 seats in states that went double-digits for Trump in 2016. I really thought Nelson would win and that McCaskill was closer, but those were the only surprises.

    Downballot, it was a pretty good night for Democrats. The governorships and statehouses in the Midwest will be important going forward. And while you can poke at “Senate gerrymandering” strawmen all you want, the House is gerrymandered all to ****, which was one thing keeping a 9+% vote margin from becoming a wave.

    It wasn’t a great night for Democrats, but the idea that the House flipped in an election held in a good economy is probably worth some consideration. In general, I’m probably a long-term buyer on diversity and youth and a seller on an aging, monochrome base.
    The reps will need to flip maybe 12-15 seats in 2020 to take it back. And I don't see how the dems have a prayer at the senate until 2022.

    Sure - young people support democrats and minorities do as well. (I don't understand why we must villify white people though for not). This has always been true. We're a very good bet to continue to move more and more towards socialism as we have consistently in this country. We are taught that it is better in schools and the state controls the schools.

    In the past, when people start working and paying taxes, they start to become more conservative. Maybe this time will be different.

    I think the whole system turns on its head once the economy tanks for real. The debt is unsustainable. The unfunded liabilities are not possible to pay for... and the "future" of our leaders want to triple down on those because they don't understand math. And it will all be blamed on capitalism that only government can save (see Obamacare now)

    Anyhow... we'll see how it all shakes out. had the dems pulled even in the senate and taken 50+ house seats, I think Trump would have been severely wounded. As is, he's fine and likely wins again unless the economy goes south in the short term.

    Besides - I like gridlock. Hopefully nothing gets done. Republicans have been shameful in their spending.

  12. #452
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    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/07/san-...ax-passes.html

    I generally like local taxes that are enacted by voter referendum. This one breaks the usual mold in that it was still a bunch of people voting to take some other people's money, but I do think it's a good thing. The real estate prices in SF make it virtually impossible to recover from homelessness, so I hope this money is used wisely and to good effect. Businesses can vote with their feet and jobs if they disagree.
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  13. #453
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaw View Post
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/07/san-...ax-passes.html

    I generally like local taxes that are enacted by voter referendum. This one breaks the usual mold in that it was still a bunch of people voting to take some other people's money, but I do think it's a good thing. The real estate prices in SF make it virtually impossible to recover from homelessness, so I hope this money is used wisely and to good effect. Businesses can vote with their feet and jobs if they disagree.
    I suspect they will

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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    I suspect they will
    Square is the only one I can see possibly leaving. The tax increase is small enough that the more traditional mega revenue companies likely won't deem it worth the inconvenience of moving.

    I do think it's likely that this will prevent prospective companies from moving into the area, but California's sky high taxes haven't prevented the concentration of Big Tech in Silicone Valley yet, so who knows?
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  15. #455
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    well...happens...good catch
    Don’t feel too bad, you were far from the only one.

  16. #456
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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    say what now?

    hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

    They even made that dumb emoji for it for everyone to tweet and text about it.

    c'mon 57, you can do better than that

    And you're right... a pony is pretty cheap... the $40T campaigned on with "just pay for it" funds will be a tougher sell.
    who is they ?
    The best way to stop a bad guy with a gun is to make sure he doesn’t get a gun.

  17. #457
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    37 seats picked up and will win the popular vote by 7-8%.
    tuesday was a huge day.
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

    “I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg

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    Nate Silver talking about another under the radar metric.
    Three states with huge (D) wins Tuesday, Michigan,Wisconsin and Pa.
    Their impact on 2020 Electoral College .
    Plus, 1.4M new voters restored in Fla.
    A question was why assume they would vote (D) ? Good question
    Answer probably lies in how hard (R) fought to get them off and keep them off


    Last edited by 57Brave; 11-08-2018 at 08:09 AM.
    The best way to stop a bad guy with a gun is to make sure he doesn’t get a gun.

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    Both the governor and senate races in Florida went Republican, but Florida shows as blue on that map? That is creative.
    Go get him!

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  20. #460
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaw View Post
    Both the governor and senate races in Florida went Republican, but Florida shows as blue on that map? That is creative.
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ng-about-2020/
    The best way to stop a bad guy with a gun is to make sure he doesn’t get a gun.

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