Page 69 of 579 FirstFirst ... 1959676869707179119169569 ... LastLast
Results 1,361 to 1,380 of 11579

Thread: 2018 Offseason And Targets

  1. #1361
    Sabermetric Slut
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Your Mom's Basement
    Posts
    29,668
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,721
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    8,744
    Thanked in
    5,837 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by bravesguy View Post
    If the Marlins target rebuild is 4 years, why would they want Soroka/Riley who could both be MLB next year?

    Anderson/Pache seems much more likely to be desirable for the Marlins.

    I prefer a Wentz/Wilson/Water type trade.
    Same reason they got a mlb ready OFer for Yelich. They don't know what they are doing.

  2. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to thewupk For This Useful Post:

    Jaw (11-08-2018), zedsdead (11-08-2018)

  3. #1362
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,432
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    If I were AA, I would fix the major holes at C and cOF rather quickly, and then sit back and wait for bench pieces and BP arms to drop to bargain prices at the end of the off season.

    It happens every single year.
    Yup. The lesser pieces should come last when prices drop. I don't see prices dropping for Grandal, Realmuto or Ramos. It is a seller's market for catcher. There might be some delay in the action as teams bidding for Harper and Machado focus on that. But I'm expecting several teams who lose out on those two to turn to catcher as a priority (Dodgers, gnats, Phillies).
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

  4. #1363
    Arbitration Eligible
    Join Date
    Aug 2017
    Posts
    3,381
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    68
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,171
    Thanked in
    773 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Same reason they got a mlb ready OFer for Yelich. They don't know what they are doing.
    Lol I think we need to have a big competition for the dumbest franchise in baseball. Who would be the frontrunners? Orioles and Marlins definitely. Royals might be up there.

  5. #1364
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,432
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    Lol I think we need to have a big competition for the dumbest franchise in baseball. Who would be the frontrunners? Orioles and Marlins definitely. Royals might be up there.
    I think you've identified the Big 3.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

  6. #1365
    Arbitration Eligible
    Join Date
    Aug 2017
    Posts
    3,381
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    68
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,171
    Thanked in
    773 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    If I were AA, I would fix the major holes at C and cOF rather quickly, and then sit back and wait for bench pieces and BP arms to drop to bargain prices at the end of the off season.

    It happens every single year.
    I think this will be our most likely approach, for good reason. My only fear is waiting to long to address the bench and not getting the type of left handed quality that we want. But you're right, that fear is probably unfounded. There are almost always quality players available for bargain prices late in the offseason

  7. The Following User Says Thank You to BeanieAntics For This Useful Post:

    Jaw (11-08-2018)

  8. #1366
    Arbitration Eligible
    Join Date
    Aug 2017
    Posts
    3,381
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    68
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,171
    Thanked in
    773 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Yup. The lesser pieces should come last when prices drop. I don't see prices dropping for Grandal, Realmuto or Ramos. It is a seller's market for catcher. There might be some delay in the action as teams bidding for Harper and Machado focus on that. But I'm expecting several teams who lose out on those two to turn to catcher as a priority (Dodgers, gnats, Phillies).
    I just wonder where the market is going to settle for Grandal and Ramos. If it is going to settle under 15 million per year or over 15 million per year. I think answering that question is going to dictate much of the rest of our path this offseason. I think, for Ramos, under 15 million is a pretty good bet. I'm expecting something like 2-3 years at 11 million. I'd quickly offer Grandal 3 years at 45 million and offer Ramos 3 years at 11 million if it appears that Grandal isn't going to go for that deal.

  9. The Following User Says Thank You to BeanieAntics For This Useful Post:

    jpx7 (11-08-2018)

  10. #1367
    It's OVER 5,000! zbhargrove's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    Bismarck, ND
    Posts
    11,135
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    766
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,672
    Thanked in
    1,967 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    This isn't good
    Right?? We will never be able to compete with this guy in the division!

  11. #1368
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,432
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    I just wonder where the market is going to settle for Grandal and Ramos. If it is going to settle under 15 million per year or over 15 million per year. I think answering that question is going to dictate much of the rest of our path this offseason. I think, for Ramos, under 15 million is a pretty good bet. I'm expecting something like 2-3 years at 11 million. I'd quickly offer Grandal 3 years at 45 million and offer Ramos 3 years at 11 million if it appears that Grandal isn't going to go for that deal.
    I would be surprised if the AAV for Grandal wasn't above 15M. Ramos should be closer to 10M. There are questions about what kind of workload he can handle due to his history of knee injuries. He might be the right guy for us given we have a strong #2 in Flowers and we would be looking to split the games.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

  12. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to nsacpi For This Useful Post:

    jpx7 (11-08-2018), Tapate50 (11-08-2018)

  13. #1369
    Arbitration Eligible
    Join Date
    Aug 2017
    Posts
    3,381
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    68
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,171
    Thanked in
    773 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I would be surprised if the AAV for Grandal wasn't above 15M. Ramos should be closer to 10M. There are questions about what kind of workload he can handle due to his history of knee injuries. He might be the right guy for us given we have a strong #2 in Flowers and we would be looking to split the games.
    Possibly, but I wouldn't be TOO surprised on Grandal. Just a little surprised. But right now there are reports that his postseason seriously affected team's perception of him. It would be really dumb if that is the case, but I also don't want to underestimate people's ability to be really stupid.

  14. #1370
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,261
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    10,000
    Thanked in
    6,108 Posts
    I'll be surprised if Grandal doesn't get $80M, which is the market rate for "best FA catcher".

    If the Braves get him for something like 3/45 (FG) or even 4/64 (MLBTR) I'd consider that a pretty good deal.

    Of course maybe I'm not taking his post season performance seriously enough...

  15. The Following User Says Thank You to Enscheff For This Useful Post:

    jpx7 (11-08-2018)

  16. #1371
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    11,386
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,392
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,746
    Thanked in
    1,975 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    Lol I think we need to have a big competition for the dumbest franchise in baseball. Who would be the frontrunners? Orioles and Marlins definitely. Royals might be up there.
    Angels have to be up there too. They have a huge advantage over 2/3 of the league in payroll, along with the advantage of having a 27 year old who's arguably a top 50 overall player in the history of baseball less than 10 years into his career. Yet they chug along in mediocrity year after year.

  17. #1372
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,432
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Angels have to be up there too. They have a huge advantage over 2/3 of the league in payroll, along with the advantage of having a 27 year old who's arguably a top 50 overall player in the history of baseball less than 10 years into his career. Yet they chug along in mediocrity year after year.
    Pujols
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

  18. #1373
    Sabermetric Slut
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Your Mom's Basement
    Posts
    29,668
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,721
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    8,744
    Thanked in
    5,837 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Angels have to be up there too. They have a huge advantage over 2/3 of the league in payroll, along with the advantage of having a 27 year old who's arguably a top 50 overall player in the history of baseball less than 10 years into his career. Yet they chug along in mediocrity year after year.
    I mean they did trade away Sean Newcomb

  19. #1374
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    11,386
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,392
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,746
    Thanked in
    1,975 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Pujols
    Josh Hamilton, CJ Wilson? I can't imagine the J-Up contract ends well either.

  20. #1375
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,261
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    10,000
    Thanked in
    6,108 Posts
    Kiley just wrote up his take on the acquisition cost of Realmuto: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/so-y...-j-t-realmuto/

    He says some pretty stupid things like: "Steamer projects Realmuto for 3.7 WAR in 2019, which I think can reasonably be pushed to 4.0 with framing"...moronic because Realmuto has been consistently negative as a pitch framer.

    However, he comes up with a surplus value of "$75 million asset value, maybe a hair lower, as both numbers are on the aggressive side". That jives fairly well with the ~$60M value we toss around here when we talk about Realmuto's trade value.

    Then another odd comment..."If we’re gonna say Realmuto is worth $70 million or so, a two-player package needs to be some multiple above that number, since the Marlins would prefer all of that value in one player. What’s the right number, though? Maybe 20% higher?" I have never seen any indication that MLB teams place a 20% penalty on a pair of prospects. Every trade I've analyzed suggests teams shoot for a prospect headliner worth over half the total surplus value, and then add in progressively lesser pieces until the surplus value of the MLB asset is met. This math has held true time and time again over the last 5 years or so.

    Then he gets to the Braves: "It’s been reported that, in July, the Marlins turned down an offer of RHP Mike Soroka (No. 25 on the Top 100) and 3B Austin Riley (No. 28)" That's a couple of 55s according to FG's board, which should be worth about $80M. He then suggests adding Muller, a 45 worth $10M+.

    Why would the Marlins turn down a Soroka/Riley package now? Likely because Soroka is hurt, not because $80M isn't enough. Additionally, that alleged proposal was made during the 2018 season when Soroka was healthy and Realmuto's value was even higher than it is now.

    If the Braves give up $90M+ in prospect value for Realmuto I will consider that a fairly significant overpay, and a very poor value acquisition.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 11-08-2018 at 06:45 PM.

  21. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Enscheff For This Useful Post:

    BeanieAntics (11-08-2018), jpx7 (11-08-2018)

  22. #1376
    Arbitration Eligible
    Join Date
    Aug 2017
    Posts
    3,381
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    68
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,171
    Thanked in
    773 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Kiley just wrote up his take on the acquisition cost of Realmuto: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/so-y...-j-t-realmuto/

    He says some pretty stupid things like: "Steamer projects Realmuto for 3.7 WAR in 2019, which I think can reasonably be pushed to 4.0 with framing"...moronic because Realmuto has been consistently negative as a pitch framer.

    However, he comes up with a surplus value of "$75 million asset value, maybe a hair lower, as both numbers are on the aggressive side". That jives fairly well with the ~$60M value we toss around here when we talk about Realmuto's trade value.

    Then another odd comment..."If we’re gonna say Realmuto is worth $70 million or so, a two-player package needs to be some multiple above that number, since the Marlins would prefer all of that value in one player. What’s the right number, though? Maybe 20% higher?" I have never seen any indication that MLB teams place a 20% penalty on a pair of prospects. Every trade I've analyzed suggests teams shoot for a prospect headliner worth over half the total surplus value, and then add in progressively lesser pieces until the surplus value of the MLB asset is met. This math has held true time and time again over the last 5 years or so.

    Then he gets to the Braves: "It’s been reported that, in July, the Marlins turned down an offer of RHP Mike Soroka (No. 25 on the Top 100) and 3B Austin Riley (No. 28)" That's a couple of 55s according to FG's board, which should be worth about $80M. He then suggests adding Muller, a 45 worth $10M+.

    Why would the Marlins turn down a Soroka/Riley package now? Likely because Soroka is hurt, not because $80M isn't enough. Additionally, that alleged proposal was made during the 2018 season when Soroka was healthy and Realmuto's value was even higher than it is now.

    If the Braves give up $90M+ in prospect value for Realmuto I will consider that a fairly significant overpay, and a very poor value acquisition.
    I'm beginning to really question Kiley's analytic bonafides. Its like he always comes fairly close to the right idea, but then he just adds a little extra stupid stuff on top that keeps him from hitting the mark.

  23. #1377
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,261
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    10,000
    Thanked in
    6,108 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    I'm beginning to really question Kiley's analytic bonafides. Its like he always comes fairly close to the right idea, but then he just adds a little extra stupid stuff on top that keeps him from hitting the mark.
    I'm not really sure why they are using him to do these player value articles. He and EL make a good prospect duo, but Kiley just doesn't seem to grasp the MLB player valuation side of things.

    We will find out soon enough though. Does Realmuto get traded for $60M in assets, or $90M in assets? That's a large enough gap in valuation that it can't be chalked up to subjective gray areas of prospect value.

  24. #1378
    NL Rookie of the Year dak's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Posts
    2,604
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    204
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,252
    Thanked in
    696 Posts
    I'm not as hot on Austin Riley as some due to concerns about his defense, but I'd still be reluctant to trade him. He should be a solid MLB contributor, and he serves as a nice insurance policy at AAA if we encounter injury or underperformance at any of the infield positions. I'd like to see the Braves hold on to Pache, Waters, and Contreras too.

    I'm 100% confident we will trade some MLB-ready or close to MLB-ready pitching though, and I think that's appropriate. After a year of self-scouting, the AA regime should have clarity on the pieces they value less than the market. They should try to find a match at an area of need with clubs interested in those pitchers. In other words, work the process backwards. I don't think that nets you Realmuto, which is fine by me. It's more likely to lead to a trade for a corner OF with some years of control.

  25. The Following User Says Thank You to dak For This Useful Post:

    Jaw (11-08-2018)

  26. #1379
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,261
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    10,000
    Thanked in
    6,108 Posts
    Markakis just won a 2018 Silver Slugger Award...

    Consider the narrative we are about to hear: "Nick Markakis, a 2018 All Star, Silver Slugger and Gold Glove Winner, is still waiting for a FA contract in late January".

    The dinosaurs are going to be completely dumbfounded...

  27. #1380
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,261
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    10,000
    Thanked in
    6,108 Posts
    The geniuses over at TC just completed their "GM simulation" with equally talented writers from other team sites.

    https://www.talkingchop.com/2018/11/...-2019-overview

    They traded away 23 players and completely overhauled the entire organization.

    They signed Grandal for 4/98...yes...$98M.

    Those guys are...special haha.

Similar Threads

  1. Around the League: 2017 offseason edition / 2018 Season
    By bravesfanforlife88 in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 2322
    Last Post: 10-31-2018, 12:15 PM
  2. Around the League: 2018/2019 Offseason
    By bravesfanforlife88 in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 09-21-2018, 05:44 PM
  3. Discussion of Braves 2018 Offseason plans
    By Horsehide Harry in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 1144
    Last Post: 03-05-2018, 10:31 PM
  4. Potential 2016 Offseason Targets
    By clvclv in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 166
    Last Post: 10-08-2016, 02:37 AM
  5. 2018 Offseason
    By thewupk in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 22
    Last Post: 09-28-2016, 07:38 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •