Matt Kemp

[Onlyonegoal]

Is that why you want to make America white again?

[Enscheff]

Yeah. Again, we're not talking about what's likely. I've said it's not likely Kemp gets back there or becomes a piece an AL team wants. I'm just saying it is possible because, well, it's possible.

This is what I don't understand. You guys admit there is very little chance on Kemp playing to a level that he can be traded, yet you use the fact that he may play to such a level to justify his acquisition.

How on Earth can Kemp's 95th percentile outcome be used as justification in acquiring him?

He will almost certainly not be worth his contract. He will almost certainly not be trade-able without eating a significant portion of his salary, even to an AL club. Therefore, he was a poor acquisition by Coppy.

Why not leave it at that, rather than citing extremely unlikely scenarios that could maybe, if you squint, justify his acquisition? Why would anyone run a team based upon extremely unlikely scenarios unfolding?

[bravesfanMatt]

This is what I don't understand. You guys admit there is very little chance on Kemp playing to a level that he can be traded, yet you use the fact that he may play to such a level to justify his acquisition.

How on Earth can Kemp's 95th percentile outcome be used as justification in acquiring him?

He will almost certainly not be worth his contract. He will almost certainly not be trade-able without eating a significant portion of his salary, even to an AL club. Therefore, he was a poor acquisition by Coppy.

Why not leave it at that, rather than citing extremely unlikely scenarios that could maybe, if you squint, justify his acquisition? Why would anyone run a team based upon extremely unlikely scenarios unfolding?

you didn't follow any of the conversation very well.. no one said if he hits x number he was worth the acquisition.

first, we are only paying him around 10 million if I remember correctly when you subtract HO contract savings (yes, I know that savings can't be traded.. no need rehash that).. but at 10 million, Kemp is worth for what he is producing.. easy to see that.

second, we are saying if he hits .850 + OPS and oWar above 3, then he becomes more attractive for an AL club and is tradable.. return/ salary can be debated.

Lastly, I can't see how anyone could argue that Kemp is not capable of hitting close to the .850 OPS mark. Looking at the data, it seems like his SD years were an outliers. We will have to let the season play out but I don't have to 'squint' to see he could hit .850 OPS next year.

those two things are not related in the least and no one talked about them being related.

[smootness]

This is what I don't understand. You guys admit there is very little chance on Kemp playing to a level that he can be traded, yet you use the fact that he may play to such a level to justify his acquisition.

How on Earth can Kemp's 95th percentile outcome be used as justification in acquiring him?

He will almost certainly not be worth his contract. He will almost certainly not be trade-able without eating a significant portion of his salary, even to an AL club. Therefore, he was a poor acquisition by Coppy.

Why not leave it at that, rather than citing extremely unlikely scenarios that could maybe, if you squint, justify his acquisition? Why would anyone run a team based upon extremely unlikely scenarios unfolding?

Sorry, I was not at any point trying to justify the acquisition of him based on the possibility of unloading him this offseason. I was just acknowledging that it is possible that he gets some of his offensive value back and a team might value him at roughly what he's being paid. That's it, not trying to make any point beyond that.

I understand those who think it was dumb to pick him up. I'm personally fine with the move, but it's not based on him improving and being unloaded.

[TheBravos]

you didn't follow any of the conversation very well.. no one said if he hits x number he was worth the acquisition.

first, we are only paying him around 10 million if I remember correctly when you subtract HO contract savings (yes, I know that savings can't be traded.. no need rehash that).. but at 10 million, Kemp is worth for what he is producing.. easy to see that.

second, we are saying if he hits .850 + OPS and oWar above 3, then he becomes more attractive for an AL club and is tradable.. return/ salary can be debated.

Lastly, I can't see how anyone could argue that Kemp is not capable of hitting close to the .850 OPS mark. Looking at the data, it seems like his SD years were an outliers. We will have to let the season play out but I don't have to 'squint' to see he could hit .850 OPS next year.

those two things are not related in the least and no one talked about them being related.

Exactly. HO was going to be cut. It was LOST money. We are actually paying him 10-12 mil., which makes him very worth it. IF we were really paying him 18....he would really, really have to kill it.

All I have said is a guy that can produce good offensive numbers for around 10 mil...is not that bad at all. If you compare that to Heyward at $21.5 million ...I take Kemp O at that price. I see it as more value. I don't bet the farm on WAR. I is a decent stat in some respects, but Coppy traded our two WAR studs. So far...he made the correct decision. Maybe Simmons and Heyward's O "clicks"....if so....that changes things. As for now, they are great defensive player with horrible offense.
Inciarte is such a better value. I love everything about him. HE is a great example of a WAR guy I like. GREAT D, but he is also a clutch hitter and a good value. He doesn't hit for power, but I could care less. He doesn't hit for 100 RBI....I could care less. One of my favorite players on the team.

[smootness]

Exactly. HO was going to be cut. It was LOST money. We are actually paying him 10-12 mil., which makes him very worth it. IF we were really paying him 18....he would really, really have to kill it.

All I have said is a guy that can produce good offensive numbers for around 10 mil...is not that bad at all. If you compare that to Heyward at $21.5 million ...I take Kemp O at that price. I see it as more value. I don't bet the farm on WAR. I is a decent stat in some respects, but Coppy traded our two WAR studs. So far...he made the correct decision. Maybe Simmons and Heyward's O "clicks"....if so....that changes things. As for now, they are great defensive player with horrible offense.
Inciarte is such a better value. I love everything about him. HE is a great example of a WAR guy I like. GREAT D, but he is also a clutch hitter and a good value. He doesn't hit for power, but I could care less. He doesn't hit for 100 RBI....I could care less. One of my favorite players on the team.

I remain a supporter of the Heyward and Simmons trades, but we traded Heyward because he had 1 year left, not because we didn't think he was that valuable.

And while we now have Dansby, so it doesn't matter as much, Simmons is still a very valuable major league player, and there's certainly no guarantee Newcomb turns into anything. So that could end up being a poor trade on our part. You can't say that was the correct decision at this point.

I don't really understand why you love Inciarte and seem to be so down on Heyward. Heyward has been an unquestionably better offensive player outside of 2016.

[bravesfanMatt]

I remain a supporter of the Heyward and Simmons trades, but we traded Heyward because he had 1 year left, not because we didn't think he was that valuable.

And while we now have Dansby, so it doesn't matter as much, Simmons is still a very valuable major league player, and there's certainly no guarantee Newcomb turns into anything. So that could end up being a poor trade on our part. You can't say that was the correct decision at this point.

I don't really understand why you love Inciarte and seem to be so down on Heyward. Heyward has been an unquestionably better offensive player outside of 2016.

I loved Heyward, he will click one day.. but I completely support that trade. The Simmons trade is different.. I hated that we traded a generational talent like that. He was the best SS I have got to watch.. his instincts and arm where unmatched.. Even if he doesn't hit, he deserves a HOF ballot IMO.. someone who is just that good, deserves to be recognized. I also think my view of Simmons is what makes me hold out hope on Newk. I have to believe that the Scouts saw something that said trading Simmons was worth it. Man I miss his cut off arm and getting into the right position to kill guys trying to score. Just a master at his position..

[TheBravos]

I remain a supporter of the Heyward and Simmons trades, but we traded Heyward because he had 1 year left, not because we didn't think he was that valuable.

And while we now have Dansby, so it doesn't matter as much, Simmons is still a very valuable major league player, and there's certainly no guarantee Newcomb turns into anything. So that could end up being a poor trade on our part. You can't say that was the correct decision at this point.

I don't really understand why you love Inciarte and seem to be so down on Heyward. Heyward has been an unquestionably better offensive player outside of 2016.

Because Inciarte is a way better value. I also like his competiveness. He is a contact hitter that gets on base a lot more. Heyward is great, but he strikes out too much. That might be ok if you are putting up solid O numbers, but to me the year he was really putting it together, is when his jaw was broken. He really hasn't been quite the same offensive player since. I'm sure he will do better next year (most likely). I just don't think Heyward is worth what they are paying unless he turns it around offensively.

I've always liked him. He just teases you with what he "might" be every year. If he ever clicks...then he is worth the contract.

I like Simmons. I personally HATED what we got for him. If Newcomb doesn't become a TOR pitcher...we were screwed. I don't disagree with trading him. Although he is a walking highlight reel defensively, he offers very little on the other side.

Our team was poorly constructed with either HR guys that struck out a ton (like Upton) and couldn't hit for average or great defensive guys that weren't that great offensively (Heyward and Simmons).

I was hoping we kept Heyward at the time, but looking back at how it turned out...it was the right move. It feels like we gave Simmons away....maybe Newcomb puts it together and it will
make me feel better. I was fine with Simmons because he was signed reasonably and long term. To me it's all about reasonable contracts versus value. We are not the Yankees. The Cub's can make a $180 mil bet and loose on Heyward...we can't. BJ's little deal (in comparison to some out there), required us to give up Kimbrel....just think what a bad $180 mil deal would make us do. Wasn't big on the Kimbrel trade either .

[The Chosen One]

You my friend are gonna win lurker of the year.

[bravesfanMatt]

You my friend are gonna win lurker of the year.

Dude is averaging 1 post a year... go ahead and give him the lifetime lurking award!!!

[smootness]

He is a contact hitter that gets on base a lot more.

Nope.

And I don't get lumping Heyward and Simmons together. Heyward has been a very good offensive player through his career and certainly better than Inciarte. He has become underrated because of the hype. People keep waiting for him to 'click' and assume that until he does, he's not that good. In reality he's very good.

He did not get that contract because of his defense alone. It is in line with his career offensive value.

[Freshmaker]

In reply to a guy who saw Kemp on tv and asked DOB if Kemp had lost weight. So...maybe slightly less terrible in left? Either way, I don't see how having Kemp is anything but good. Dude raked for us last year and really brought about some balance to the lineup. A 30HR righty? Yes please and thank you. Just shift Ender and Neck each about 4 feet to towards LF and that'll help a bit to cover Kemp's lack of range.

[bravesfanMatt]

In reply to a guy who saw Kemp on tv and asked DOB if Kemp had lost weight. So...maybe slightly less terrible in left? Either way, I don't see how having Kemp is anything but good. Dude raked for us last year and really brought about some balance to the lineup. A 30HR righty? Yes please and thank you. Just shift Ender and Neck each about 4 feet to towards LF and that'll help a bit to cover Kemp's lack of range.

Raking is only half the job. Still needs to weed and sweep. And moving neck in any direction won't help. We need to just pray that Ender won't quit the team having to cover all 3 positions.

[nsacpi]

i wonder if the massive weight loss will cost Kemp some of his power...also when in the on deck circle he will cast a smaller shadow, thereby reducing the protection given to Freeman

[blueagleace1]

There is an entire thread literally 1/4" above/below this one where we have been discussing the fact that Kemp almost certainly gave up 60 runs on defense compared to Heyward.

And yes, the stats you just listed prove beyond all doubt you have no idea how to evaluate baseball player value.

Was that a necessary jab? You are a very intelligent person who can be a great poster when you're not making these types of comments.

[Enscheff]

i wonder if the massive weight loss will cost Kemp some of his power...also when in the on deck circle he will cast a smaller shadow, thereby reducing the protection given to Freeman

Kemp was able to protect Freeman all the way from SD. Even a slimmer version of him will have no problem protecting Freeman while in the same city.

[Southcack77]

We did give up something. His big contract is definitely something.

I'm fine with the move, but you can't argue we got him for free.

True, which is why if the Braves can move for him just about any sort of asset, they should do it. And that would be a slick series of moves to rid themselves of Oliviera for something. But given the last two teams have paid to get rid of Kemp, the odds aren't great.

[Southcack77]

Exactly. HO was going to be cut. It was LOST money. We are actually paying him 10-12 mil., which makes him very worth it. IF we were really paying him 18....he would really, really have to kill it.

All I have said is a guy that can produce good offensive numbers for around 10 mil...is not that bad at all. If you compare that to Heyward at $21.5 million ...I take Kemp O at that price. I see it as more value. I don't bet the farm on WAR. I is a decent stat in some respects, but Coppy traded our two WAR studs. So far...he made the correct decision. Maybe Simmons and Heyward's O "clicks"....if so....that changes things. As for now, they are great defensive player with horrible offense.
Inciarte is such a better value. I love everything about him. HE is a great example of a WAR guy I like. GREAT D, but he is also a clutch hitter and a good value. He doesn't hit for power, but I could care less. He doesn't hit for 100 RBI....I could care less. One of my favorite players on the team.

I just think that's a strange way of looking at it.

[TheBravos]

I guess I'm not in the majority, but I just think he is more important to our offense than a liability on defense. Maybe this year he is worse, but to me he seemed to make very ugly plays, but at "least" make them (most of the time). The Kemp deal was definitely a "making lemonade" deal, but we did ok....and yes I realize we could have gotten him without HO, but that is the deal he came in....so...

I don't crunch numbers and stats for days, but I have played plenty baseball in my days. I look for more impact that I can see as a to how a player fits on a team, than certain stats. Kemp made a differerence to our offense. Inciarte gave us some extra grit we were lacking.

[smootness]

No, Kemp did not make the play most of the time. His defense truly is disastrous. It provides even less value than a DH who never plays defense provides defensively. That is quite impressively bad.