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Thread: Magic Number Math

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    Magic Number Math

    Don't ask me about the wild cards because there are too many variables but in a 60 game season for the division title, it goes something like this based on this morning's records:

    Braves: 29-21
    Marlins: 26-24
    Phillies: 25-25

    Magic number to close out the Marlins: Marlins wins (26) + Marlins games remaining (10) - Braves wins (29) + 1 = 8

    Magic number to close out the Phillies: Phillies wins (25) + Phillies games remaining (10) - Braves wins (29) + 1 = 7

    Another way to get the same numbers is:

    Marlins: 61- Braves wins (29) - Marlins losses (24) = 8

    Phillies: 61 - Braves wins (29) - Phillies losses (25) = 7

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    According to EPSN, the MN for a PO spot is 7.

    If season ended today, we would play the Cards
    Oh! I have slipped the surly bonds of Earth
    And danced the skies on laughter-silvered wings;......

    And, while with silent, lifting mind I’ve trod
    The high untrespassed sanctity of space,
    Put out my hand, and touched the face of God.

    High Flight
    by
    John Gillespie Magee, Jr.

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    Quote Originally Posted by salmagundy View Post
    According to EPSN, the MN for a PO spot is 7.

    If season ended today, we would play the Cards
    I feel like who the Braves play is going to come down to the last day.

    The Reds have really come on lately to put them in to the mix for a playoff spot.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    I feel like who the Braves play is going to come down to the last day.

    The Reds have really come on lately to put them in to the mix for a playoff spot.
    That’s the one team we need to avoid.
    That SP would be a nightmare.
    I’m pretty confident playing anyone else.
    They are hot at the right time.
    Perfect scenario for the Braves would be Reds knockout the Dodgers in the first round and then padres Braves NLCS.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buzzworm View Post
    That’s the one team we need to avoid.
    That SP would be a nightmare.
    I’m pretty confident playing anyone else.
    They are hot at the right time.
    Perfect scenario for the Braves would be Reds knockout the Dodgers in the first round and then padres Braves NLCS.
    Their rotation is really good. Average pen and poor hitting. I feel like that could be a series where the Braves could stymie their offense long enough to put it to their bullpen like they have done to a lot of teams this year.

    A lot of ~.500 teams with flaws that the Braves could play.

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    Yeah. Not fearing any team and not confident about every team. It is just needing our key guys hot at the right time. We have good hitters who can beat any pitcher. We need Ozzie out of the nine hole and then just a Swanson, Riley or Duvy to have a good game once or twice and we can beat anyone. Our pen is solid enough to win it all with good offense and average starters.
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buzzworm View Post
    That’s the one team we need to avoid.
    That SP would be a nightmare.
    I’m pretty confident playing anyone else.
    They are hot at the right time.
    Perfect scenario for the Braves would be Reds knockout the Dodgers in the first round and then padres Braves NLCS.

    Then Clevinger will get 2 wins against Atlanta, knocking us out of the NLCS and Braves fans will riot
    Get off my lawn!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buzzworm View Post
    That’s the one team we need to avoid.
    That SP would be a nightmare.
    I’m pretty confident playing anyone else.
    They are hot at the right time.
    Perfect scenario for the Braves would be Reds knockout the Dodgers in the first round and then padres Braves NLCS.
    We need to avoid the Marlins. Sixto Sanchez is two wins for them.

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    I wonder how many teams are going to send their ace out for 2 starts in 5 days, when doing so could burn them from using them multiple times the next series.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 09-19-2020 at 03:01 PM.

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    I lined it out in the game thread.

    7 to Marlins

    7 to Cards
    6 to Giants
    5 to Reds

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    ESPN has our magic number at 3 to clinch a wild card spot. It is 5 to clinch the division.
    Get off my lawn!

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    I think it's 4, but could be wrong. There's 3 teams with 26 losses, meaning they can get to 34 wins, so the Braves need to get to 35, thus 4. It seems like the 9th place team has had 26 losses for the last 5 days. The wildcard is so wacky that if we win 2 against the Marlins, I suspect we'll win the division before we win the WC.

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    Magic numbers 3 and 2. The Braves can clinch a playoff spot tonight with a win, and a loss by either Phillies or Giants. They would also clinch a tie in the division, and I think they own the second tiebreaker. So, double clinch!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nerfherders View Post
    Magic numbers 3 and 2. The Braves can clinch a playoff spot tonight with a win, and a loss by either Phillies or Giants. They would also clinch a tie in the division, and I think they own the second tiebreaker. So, double clinch!
    Braves just need to beat the Fish tonight to win the division. If they do that then they own all possible tiebreakers against the Fish and Phillies regardless of what happens the rest of the season.

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    Can’t think of any pitcher I want on the bump more in a clinching game than Wilson.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Can’t think of any pitcher I want on the bump more in a clinching game than Wilson.
    Folty? He has the experience.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Can’t think of any pitcher I want on the bump more in a clinching game than Wilson.
    Erlin maybe.
    Coppy

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    So, according to the Braves, we need another Phillies loss along with a win tonight to clinch.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CyYoung31 View Post
    So, according to the Braves, we need another Phillies loss along with a win tonight to clinch.
    They don't need the Phillies to lose but it looks like they will.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    They don't need the Phillies to lose but it looks like they will.
    Is the story maybe not considering the tie breakers? Are the tie breakers completely settled already?

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