GDT: 9/21 Fish Fry In Atlanta

[thewupk]

I'm just hoping that somehow the Phillies don't make it. Giants and Brewers are both right there at 1/2 game back. What are the rules on a tie for the last wild card?

Tie breaker is head to head, then intradivision record, then last 20 games of intradivision record.

[50PoundHead]

Tie breaker is head to head, then intradivision record, then last 20 games of intradivision record.

Is that result then multiplied by the square root of 18?

[50PoundHead]

agreed. The Phillies are way more dangerous.

It's not the danger factor for me. I just can't stand the Phillies. If the tiebreaker for the eighth spot was a marathon game of rock-paper-scissors, Bryce Harper's noggin would be the rock.

[msstate7]

I'm just hoping that somehow the Phillies don't make it. Giants and Brewers are both right there at 1/2 game back. What are the rules on a tie for the last wild card?

Phillies are currently 8-seed. Wouldn't you want the more dangerous team to perhaps take out dodgers in 1st round?

[thewupk]

Is that result then multiplied by the square root of 18?

How did you know?

[thewupk]

Phillies are currently 8-seed. Wouldn't you want the more dangerous team to perhaps take out dodgers in 1st round?

Let's be real. Phillies aren't winning against the Dodgers. It's just funny to see them miss the playoffs and have nothing to show for the JTR trade.

[Tapate50]

Let's be real. Phillies aren't winning against the Dodgers. It's just funny to see them miss the playoffs and have nothing to show for the JTR trade.

Yeah I think they’d be a lot more dangerous going forward from this year with Sixto.

[msstate7]

Let's be real. Phillies aren't winning against the Dodgers. It's just funny to see them miss the playoffs and have nothing to show for the JTR trade.

I don't think anybody is taking out the dodgers. I was just making the point that we won't be matched up with them in 1st round, so they could help us.

[bravesfanMatt]

So I see a lot of Raillie fans saying if they don’t resign JT then that trade was a failure. I just don’t get this thought. I mean you trade for two years of JTR. I mean they could have keep their guys and just tried to sign him this offseason. This concept of a trade hinging on a resigning seems silly to me. Maybe having exclusive negotiations rights for two years has a little value. But most young stars are going to test FA unless you over pay to keep them from hitting it. So for JTR the exclusive rights holds even less value.

[thewupk]

So I see a lot of Raillie fans saying if they don’t resign JT then that trade was a failure. I just don’t get this thought. I mean you trade for two years of JTR. I mean they could have keep their guys and just tried to sign him this offseason. This concept of a trade hinging on a resigning seems silly to me. Maybe having exclusive negotiations rights for two years has a little value. But most young stars are going to test FA unless you over pay to keep them from hitting it. So for JTR the exclusive rights holds even less value.

Most fans don't understand that concept. You see it a lot on this forum. The JTR trade at the time was pretty even and I suspect the Phillies came out ahead a little with the way JTR has played for them.

[Super]

the phillies aren't dangerous by any measure IMO

[bravesfanMatt]

the phillies aren't dangerous by any measure IMO

Nola and wheeler in a short series has the potential to close anyone down. Their offense has some hitters who can be streaky good. They are better than any other 8th place team.

[50PoundHead]

The Realmuto trade was a now-for-later deal and teams make them all the time. I remember how everyone thought the Royals got ripped off in the deal that brought them Shields and Davis for Myers, Odorizzi, etc. Royals won the AL pennant in 2014 with those two and the World Series in 2015 with Davis, so it was a roll of the dice that paid off. The Realmuto deal hasn't paid off for the Phillies in the big picture, but that's not his fault.

[chop2chip]

Most fans don't understand that concept. You see it a lot on this forum. The JTR trade at the time was pretty even and I suspect the Phillies came out ahead a little with the way JTR has played for them.

In retrospect, it’s interesting to debate whether the Braves made the right decision not trading for JTR. D’Arnaud in 2020 has validated the decision, but JTR probably puts us over the top in 2019.

[thewupk]

In retrospect, it’s interesting to debate whether the Braves made the right decision not trading for JTR. D’Arnaud in 2020 has validated the decision, but JTR probably puts us over the top in 2019.

Braves still lose in game 5 with JTR.

Phillies got 5.7 fWAR out of JTR last year. Braves got 3.3 out of Mac/Flow.

Not trading for him was the right decision.

[clvclv]

Nola and wheeler in a short series has the potential to close anyone down. Their offense has some hitters who can be streaky good. They are better than any other 8th place team.

Potential, sure - but overall (and without time to go back an dig through the numbers) the Braves have fared pretty well against those guys, so it's not like they scare you to death. We always seem to struggle against the Phillies' guys you wouldn't typically expect to struggle with. For whatever reason, we seem to get up for the Nolas/Wheelers/Scherzers/Strasburgs/Corbins and then have a letdown.

[NYCBrave]

Nola and wheeler in a short series has the potential to close anyone down. Their offense has some hitters who can be streaky good. They are better than any other 8th place team.

Their actually pretty banged up right now. JTR has been out, and so has Hoskins. Not sure when either will return. In top of that, their bullpen has still been a dumpster fire. The guys they got at the deadline haven't been good.

[Russ2dollas]

Can't evaluate the Phillies trade based on signing JTR. They could have kept Sixto and signed him from the Marlins this offseason.

They traded for two years of JTR. I think they did well. Sixto may be really good, but he was far from a sure fire guy. As I recall there were legit control concerns with Sixto and he's a 6 foot RH. Lots of Risk there. Sixto has done great so far, but his long term success may not be that great. Alfaro is a decent catcher.

What I recall the rumor being from the Marlins side is that the Braves didn't get JTR or Yelich b/c the Marlins wanted the top prospect in the system. They didn't care about equivalent package, they wanted to say they go the number one guy. Maybe that was wrong. I'm glad we didn't trade Acuna for Yelich and not sure what the Marlins really wanted from atlanta for JTR.

I know it's really SSS, but I was impressed with Contreras at C. I think Langiliers is going to be at least Flowers good. TDA has been big time. So I would not be putting a lot of resources into C.

I wonder if TDA would have any interest in an extension, or if the Braves have any money. If we had money I'd think about telling TDA we will increase his salary from 8 million to 12 if he'll give us a team option or two in the 10-12 million range. In reality we probably can't do that b/c liberty will reduce payroll and we'll want every dime for next year.

[Super]

As I recall there were legit control concerns with Sixto and he's a 6 foot RH. Lots of Risk there. Sixto has done great so far, but his long term success may not be that great. Alfaro is a decent catcher.

Sixto has never had anything resembling control issues. his control has always been dumb good. it was his stature/injury history that dinged his value.

[Super]

Nola and wheeler in a short series has the potential to close anyone down. Their offense has some hitters who can be streaky good. They are better than any other 8th place team.

Nola and Wheeler better go CG every time then, because their bullpen is easily the worst in the league. their depth stinks everywhere so they can't sustain any injuries. not scared of them.