GDT: NLCS Braves vs Dodgers 10/12

[striker42]

Yeah it’s a pretty big deal. 8 IP, 3 hits, 13 K, 1 BB, and no runs. Then 6 IP, 6 hits, 6 K, no walks, and 3 runs. He’s been pitching great in his two starts.

Also, while Gonsolin is good, he had a pretty lucky HR/FB ratio. His HR/FB was 4.0% with 42% of balls in play fly balls and 24% line drives. Only 34% were ground balls. Anderson had a low percentage at 4.5% but Anderson sees over half the balls put in play against him stay on the ground. So the fluky HR rate has a much larger impact on Gonsolin. That shows in their xFIPs.

Gonsolin xFIP- 3.80
Anderson xFIP- 3.45

Compare that to Kershaw's xFIP of 2.62

So I think this is a big thing for us. We went from clearly outgunned to a fairly close matchup on the mound.

[NinersSBChamps]

Yep the entire series has shifted in the last few minutes. Going into game 2 was a mismatch on the mound.
Now Gonsolin gets the nod who my all accounts a wonderful “spot starter” to have to use. I believe he’s making his post season debut against a season playoff veteran.

[Enscheff]

He’s gotta be banned by now right?

I hope not. Listening to him rant about how was going to bring the whole thing down was hilarious.

[bravesfanforlife88]

Okay I didn’t want to have to break this out, but Kershaw being out for game 2 is a very nice birthday present

[tululush]

Uh this is a huge deal. This won’t allow Kershaw to start game 7. Also this could stress the LA bullpen even further. May would be unable to pitch if the plan to start him at some point. Gotta look at everything in this series several games down the line.

Kershaw was never starting game 7. Buehler is.

[NinersSBChamps]

Blistering Buehler, no Kershaw, and perhaps no Jansen.

[CrazyTrain]

Holy moly

Is this going to happen? Is this the year?

[thewupk]

Pache starting in CF today

[CyYoung31]

Unless the Braves starters completely poop down their legs this series is theirs.

The Dodgers lineup is every bit as, if not more so, stacked as ours. This series isn’t even close to being over.

[CrazyTrain]

Pache starting in CF today

This is the smart play. Elite defense is important in a low scoring series like this. Plus, you get some crucial experience for Pache heading into next season.

[Enscheff]

This is the smart play. Elite defense is important in a low scoring series like this. Plus, you get some crucial experience for Pache heading into next season.

Hey kid, nice work on those back fields all year. Go start in the NLCS vs the Dodgers.

[Carp]

Hopefully Contreras replaces Duvall and we see:

Acuna RF
MVP 1B
Ozuna LF
TDA DH
Ozzie 2B
Swanson SS
Riley 3B
Flowers C
Pache CF

Not a bad strategy either. Flowers is likely our best RH bench bat anyways. I don't know who Anderson prefers throwing to, but i have to imagine TDA will need a break for a day behind the plate, so doing that while also keeping his bat in the line-up would be nice.

[Freshmaker]

Hey kid, nice work on those back fields all year. Go start in the NLCS vs the Dodgers.

Certainly not optimal, but if Panda’s not going to hit and Neck is not going to hit we may as well get elite defense

[Carp]

In terms of DRS, it's not really a huge issue. If you look at UZR, he's maybe approaching a -1 win over a season player.

Obviously, he doesn't look like much of a defender, but he's perhaps not quite the sieve you're painting him to be.

I don't really see the Braves starting him, but I could be surprised.

I don't think you can take anything of note of stats from 27 innings of work. He is quite definitely a defensive liability, more so than Ozuna, and his offense likewise was pretty atrocious this year. Pablo's only value is as a bench bat.

[Carp]

Camargo officially added to the roster for Duvall.

My 2nd choice behind adding a 3rd catcher.

[Carp]

Replacing Kershaw with Gonsolin doesn’t move the needle that much. Yes, it’s a downgrade, but this isn’t Kershaw from 5 years ago when he was elite. Let’s not pretend like this is swapping out Maddux in his prime for Milone.

I mean Kershaw was pretty elite this year and was their best pitcher by a decent margin in the regular season. Gonsolin is no slouch, but was a good bit lucky their year with a .4 HR rate. His minor league BB rate suggests his 2020 rate is due for some regression as well. The Dodgers are definitely fortunate to have such a good pitcher to fall back on, but it's a pretty good downgrade nonetheless.

[Carp]

Kershaw was never starting game 7. Buehler is.

No. As it stands, Buehler is on track to start game 6, with regular rest. Kershaw would have been on track to start game 7.

[clvclv]

it seems he's saying to use Sandoval over Neck, which is fine i guess, only because i don't want Neck getting ABs, or playing defense, against *anyone*.
i'd probably still rather start Culberson. Duvall would've been nice to see against a lefty.

Pretty much it for me - Markakis just looks as bad as he ever has as a Brave right now (eye test only). One of the few times I can remember him looking like he just doesn't know where to even look to try to snap out of it.

It's a pure Snitker/Fredi/Bobby thing - no numbers to back it up. Panda, Smith, and Melancon might have a little more fire in them since they've been part of the Dodgers/Giants rivalry before. For as much as us fans who were around eons ago when the Braves were in their division still hate them, most of the Braves players have only faced them a handful of times in their careers.

The intangibles aren't the argument you normally want to toss out there, but it's now that time of year that you can at least look at players' postseason histories when making decisions. We got to the crapshoot portion of the schedule. It would have been nice to have Hamels available to make a couple of starts because you KNOW these moments aren't too big for him and you're still not completely sure Anderson and Wright might not shiver just a little (although with another good start I'm probably willing to trust Anderson for good). Panda's been here before and has tortured the Dodgers in big moments in the past - while he may never come through again, he's a big moment waiting to happen and you don't exactly have many other viable options.