The Braves Roster: Where It Stands Now. Where Does It Go From Here

[cajunrevenge]

You're still avoiding the question. There are plenty of people here who read just as many reports and blurbs you do. Sickels isn't some hidden treasure trove of information - I routinely read everything he put out too (until he lost funding for his site). He differed from the usual suspects at times, but he was wrong at least as often as Law, the guys at BA, and the guys at Pipeline are - and a lot of those times it was because he was trying to be different than them, not because he had legitimate reasons. He constantly admitted that he ranked people higher than other sites at times because he "had a feeling" about this guy or that guy - not because of anything he could measure.

We're all "right" about the occasional prospect when others weren't every once in a while - the difference is you want someone to pat you on the back for that but don't want anyone to mention when your "system" fails.

If matching wits with Bill Shanks is something you feel is worth crowing about, more power to you.

I answered your question in the first sentence of the post where I quoted you. I watched quite a few minor league games through minorleaguebaseball.com in 2018 and 2019 but I will admit I am not good at the eye test. I am not good at differentiating between the pitches, analyzing batting or pitching mechanics. I dont know what the purpose of your statements on Sickels come from. I said he was a personal favorite of mine. I take a lot of input from a lot of sources and form my own opinion. I dont know why you needed to go into all that about Sickels. He was a favorite because he was particularly well connected and informed on Braves Prospects. If I remember correctly he used to cover the Braves farm system for Baseball America. Every prospecter has their blind spots and biases. It wasnt intended to say he was the Nostradamus of prospecting. I care far more about the quality of information they provided than their rankings and Sickels was a great source for Braves prospect information.


Thank you for informing me that everyone gets it right every once in a while. I had not considered this. I really dont understand how you type that and dont think your are insulting a person. There are people here I think are smart and people I think are dumb, not a single one of them do I think needs it to be explained to them that anyone that makes predictions is bound to be right every now and then. I am not looking for a pat on the back I am looking to not get attacked for just having a different opinion. People can disagree without attacking me or my methodology. I feel like I have gone out of my way to say in my posts that I have been wrong plenty of times. Its just frustrating to go through this EVERYTIME I have an unpopular opinion. Every. Single Time. You all disagree. I got it. I have no problem with being mocked if I am wrong. I have a problem being mocked before we even know the results. Then even if I am right the next time around its the same ****. I dont pick a lot of these hills to die on. Rarely will you see me speak in such absolutes like I do about Melvin or did about Cody Johnson back in the day because theres always the potential for development.



As for Shanks, I dont see how thats a battle of wits with Shanks and not a battle of wit vs the rest of everyone else who tried to guess it. I am not sure how I am supposed to react to people attacking my competency other than point out the many times I was right, or atleast more right than everyone else. The only other way is to wait for the results but those will be ignored anyways.

[cajunrevenge]

Please share this formula!!

I'll do the legwork to retroactively apply it to past data, and we can see how accurate it is.

Of course, unless you've already done that type of regression testing.

Its a scouting philosophy not a mathematical formula. Ironically I find you to be one of the best sources of good hard info despite how you act. So feel free to attack my judgement. If you REALLY want me to write down my whole scouting philosophy I'll give it to you.

[Heyward]

Market rate in terms of AAV is fine.

Locking him up into his late 30s is not fine.

I trust AA understands this.

Something like 3 years, 75 mil with a 4th mil team option is ideal. Would take him into his age 35 season, then tbd on the option year.

[Carp]

My assesment has nothing to do with the lost year. I am pretty sure every team feels like they got a lot of talented players in the 2019 draft. Theres any number of factors on a lot of things that I know most of you dont know much less factor in. For example, in rookie ball and below they force pitchers to mainly work on their fastballs and locating them. Prospects that struggle to make contact facing mostly fastballs is a huge red flag to me. GCL league also has them working out a lot and they play in a pretty hot environment. Many players struggle just based on fatigue. When it comes to hits allowed and defense in the minor leagues I try and factor in that teams dont prioritize defense in the minors. Many players are learning new positions or are playing positions they would never be allowed to in the majors because they are a huge defensive liability. A good example of this I remember is Jose Peraza had a lot of errors at AAA and people questioned his defense because of it. My position was that the person playing 1B, Terdoslavich aka the Terd Buglar, was a piss poor defensive 1B and many of the throws that resulted in error would be made up by Freeman who is very good at receiving throws and scooping at 1B. You can also factor in that the fields of play in the minor leagues are not kept up near as well as they are in the majors and that can create issues as well. I am used to the condescending reaction to my takes. Just makes it sweeter for me when I am right but from my experience even when I am right people will still not admit it because they dont agree with my methods.

You're right. Peraza was so good defensively at SS that he's a 2b now

[cajunrevenge]

People questioned his defense based on an excessive amount of errors at AAA that was almost all throwing errors. Did he move to 2B because he had throwing accuracy problems at SS?

[Carp]

People questioned his defense based on an excessive amount of errors at AAA that was almost all throwing errors. Did he move to 2B because he had throwing accuracy problems at SS?

It's been awhile, so I may not remember correctly, but I recall the concern being his arm not being good enough for SS, not that it wasn't accurate. And true enough his arm seems below average for a SS.

[cajunrevenge]

I believe his arm is below average for SS but he has almost twice as many defensive innings played at SS than 2B. Peraza is a good example of a prospect I liked that was very overrated. Eric Campbell is probably one of my worst whiffs. Really loved the Braxton Davidson pick.

[50PoundHead]

It's been awhile, so I may not remember correctly, but I recall the concern being his arm not being good enough for SS, not that it wasn't accurate. And true enough his arm seems below average for a SS.

That's what I recall as well. His major league defensive stats at SS probably don't have a lot to do with his arm as his runs saved at the position are really bad. He's listed at over 200 pounds now so he maybe outgrew the position, which happens to a lot of young players. Given where he was at when he was traded, I thought his development arc might make him into a player that would really bite the Braves back worse than it has. His reluctance to take a walk and the seeming loss of speed (which really was his calling card) have hurt him. He's still only 26, but he's probably hit his top end.

[Carp]

I believe his arm is below average for SS but he has almost twice as many defensive innings played at SS than 2B. Peraza is a good example of a prospect I liked that was very overrated. Eric Campbell is probably one of my worst whiffs. Really loved the Braxton Davidson pick.

While that is true, Tyler Pastornicky spent 90% of his short MLB career at SS as well. Bad teams tend to play inferior players at certain positions because they don't have better options. That's why they're bad teams.

[cajunrevenge]

Thats a name I havent heard in a while. I wasnt defending Peraza's range at SS. I was talking about his arm. And what I said about him was specific to the Braves in that we have a good defensive 1B in terms of scooping and receiving throws at 1B. I dont think Peraza has had any issues with throwing accuracy in the majors.

[clvclv]

You're right. Peraza was so good defensively at SS that he's a 2b now

Actually played more games in LF than at SS this year.

[Hudson2]

What about KiKi Hernandez as a bench piece? He’s a FA after this season.

[Tapate50]

What about KiKi Hernandez as a bench piece? He’s a FA after this season.

Big fan of bringing in guys that rake against us.

[Hudson2]

Big fan of bringing in guys that rake against us.

Me too lol. Every time he comes up I feel like he’s gonna get a hit.