Braves sign Drew Smyly

[Tapate50]

one year deals have a lot to recommend themselves

i'm thinking also Soroka might not be ready opening day...we should think of Smyly as potentially giving us what Rich Hill gave the Dodgers for several years

Extended stays on the DL? I hope not

[chop2chip]

2017 Rich Hill is an interesting comparison...

Braves = Middle class Dodgers.

[clvclv]

They must know something we do not. It’s that simple.

Would definitely be the first time THAT ever happened.

[Southcack77]

i have to believe AA has more money to play with than we've assumed if he's dropping $11M on Drew Smyly at this point in the offseason.

Let's hope. Kind of wish he'd spent it on better than Drew Smyly.

[TheBravos]

Let's hope. Kind of wish he'd spent it on better than Drew Smyly.

We have a great team of number crunchers now. Just like TD...he was targeted early last year...there is a reason.

[thewupk]

If Bryant could look anything like his old self that’s a great set of deals. Call me skeptical on Bryant with his awful statcast data the last 2 years, coupled with plenty of declining production and more injuries

2020 was bad. But it was also 2020 and I would look past it on Bryant. The key with Bryant is evaluating him as a 355 wOBA player like his expected output showed in 2018 and 2019 and not the 380 monster he was in 2016 and 2017.

[Enscheff]

We have a great team of number crunchers now. Just like TD...he was targeted early last year...there is a reason.

I have to agree that AA and the FO deserve the benefit of the doubt. The fact Hamels couldn’t get healthy shouldn’t damper how folks view the Smyly signing. Guys like TD and JD were plucked early because the FO knew something.

My issue with it isn’t the signing itself, but the timing. Just like the Tomlin deal, why now? Why settle for a lower end option before the superior options are settled? Does the FO have a good idea of how much cash is available around MLB and forecasted the likely price for guys like Tomlin and Smyly? I have to assume they did, and since I didn’t do any research to prove otherwise I have to assume they are correct.

I figured they would split their cash roughly as $20M for a bat, $10M for a SP, and spare change for the bench and BP. So far they are doing exactly that, so I can’t really complain, even if I was hoping for someone like Morton for the rotation.

[TheBravos]

I have to agree that AA and the FO deserve the benefit of the doubt. The fact Hamels couldn’t get healthy shouldn’t damper how folks view the Smyly signing. Guys like TD and JD were plucked early because the FO knew something.

My issue with it isn’t the signing itself, but the timing. Just like the Tomlin deal, why now? Why settle for a lower end option before the superior options are settled? Does the FO have a good idea of how much cash is available around MLB and forecasted the likely price for guys like Tomlin and Smyly? I have to assume they did, and since I didn’t do any research to prove otherwise I have to assume they are correct.

I figured they would split their cash roughly as $20M for a bat, $10M for a SP, and spare change for the bench and BP. So far they are doing exactly that, so I can’t really complain, even if I was hoping for someone like Morton for the rotation.

Yeah, that part is a little strange to me also. Maybe they have already checked the market and there aren’t as many good deals as we thought there wold be out there.

[NYCBrave]

I have to agree that AA and the FO deserve the benefit of the doubt. The fact Hamels couldn’t get healthy shouldn’t damper how folks view the Smyly signing. Guys like TD and JD were plucked early because the FO knew something.

My issue with it isn’t the signing itself, but the timing. Just like the Tomlin deal, why now? Why settle for a lower end option before the superior options are settled? Does the FO have a good idea of how much cash is available around MLB and forecasted the likely price for guys like Tomlin and Smyly? I have to assume they did, and since I didn’t do any research to prove otherwise I have to assume they are correct.

I figured they would split their cash roughly as $20M for a bat, $10M for a SP, and spare change for the bench and BP. So far they are doing exactly that, so I can’t really complain, even if I was hoping for someone like Morton for the rotation.

Youre exactly right. They deserve benefit of the doubt based on past successes but it's still very strange timing. Hopefully they already did their due diligence on guys like morton. Maybe he just became fixated on Smyly being his guy and didn't want to miss out.

[UNCBlue012]

There legitimately could be more in the budget than first thought. I’d be surprised given Liberty Media sucks ass and COVID has been a financial mess but who knows.

[Carp]

After stewing on it for a bit, I'm still not a fan of the deal overall, but I do recognize the potential risk vs. reward here. A healthy Smyly (however unlikely that may be) could potentially be a 3-4 WAR pitcher, and may be more if the added mph to his fastball is to be believed. I suppose if payroll is in the 130-140 million range, this is a worthwhile risk given we fix the holes on offense.

But considering Soroka will be coming back from a major injury, I would like to see us bring in a super cheap veteran to duke it out for the 5th rotation spot with Wright, Wilson, etc. Maybe King Felix would like to try again. Or Rick Porcello perhaps. At least someone who can maybe provide some stability in case of an injury to Smyly.

[zbhargrove]

2020 was bad. But it was also 2020 and I would look past it on Bryant. The key with Bryant is evaluating him as a 355 wOBA player like his expected output showed in 2018 and 2019 and not the 380 monster he was in 2016 and 2017.

Yes, but his statcast data has been really bad before 2020

[zbhargrove]

I'm a little more optimistic about this signing after sleeping on it. Yes, he was awful in 2019, but that was his first action back after TJS and looks like the bad performance was control driven with a 4.34 BB/9. Control and command are always the last thing to come back after TJS and its promising that his limited action in 2020 showed much better control. The big question is can he stay healthy for most of a season but maybe now that he's another year removed from TJS his health will also improve a bit. A lot of maybe's though.

[bravesfanMatt]

Everything I am reading is that drew changed his delivery after the surgery and he now has more zip and spin on his fastball and more importantly his curve which now stands at plus to plus plus pitch. It may be that drew had a few offers he was considering and AA recognized him as a potential break out guy and offered him more on a one year deal to prove it in Atl.

So something like. Hey Drew. Don’t take that 2 year deal worth 18 mil. Come play here for 11 mill and have a chance at a world title. We believe in your stuff and want you to cash in like everyone else who played for us.

I was disappointed at first but now very intrigued with this signing. Like most I hope this means we stay closer to the 140 opening day range versus 120.

[zbhargrove]

Yeah looking at his pitch data, looks like he through the curve a ton more in 2020 than at any other point in his career (25.6% for his career he's used the curve and he used it 36.3% in 2020... albeit very small sample). I'm getting more and more interested in this signing. I feel like, if he's healthy, he may have found something.

[nsacpi]

I have to agree that AA and the FO deserve the benefit of the doubt. The fact Hamels couldn’t get healthy shouldn’t damper how folks view the Smyly signing. Guys like TD and JD were plucked early because the FO knew something.

My issue with it isn’t the signing itself, but the timing. Just like the Tomlin deal, why now? Why settle for a lower end option before the superior options are settled? Does the FO have a good idea of how much cash is available around MLB and forecasted the likely price for guys like Tomlin and Smyly? I have to assume they did, and since I didn’t do any research to prove otherwise I have to assume they are correct.

I figured they would split their cash roughly as $20M for a bat, $10M for a SP, and spare change for the bench and BP. So far they are doing exactly that, so I can’t really complain, even if I was hoping for someone like Morton for the rotation.

Timing is an interesting thing during the off-season. We've seen AA move early (Will Smith and now Smyly) and move late (JD, Ozuna, Keuchel). As a rule, it appears that the better bargains in free agency come late. But I can see the case for moving on a player before the market gets set. With Smith, I believe the window was driven by the possibility he could accept the QO from the Giants.

[50PoundHead]

Timing is an interesting thing during the off-season. We've seen AA move early (Will Smith and now Smyly) and move late (JD, Ozuna, Keuchel). As a rule, it appears that the better bargains in free agency come late. But I can see the case for moving on a player before the market gets set. With Smith, I believe the window was driven by the possibility he could accept the QO from the Giants.

My main concern is the small sample size on Smyly from 2020. I really don't see how a substantive analysis can be based on 26 innings.

[clvclv]

Timing is an interesting thing during the off-season. We've seen AA move early (Will Smith and now Smyly) and move late (JD, Ozuna, Keuchel). As a rule, it appears that the better bargains in free agency come late. But I can see the case for moving on a player before the market gets set. With Smith, I believe the window was driven by the possibility he could accept the QO from the Giants.

This is looking more and more like AA's MO - something I mentioned before. Go out early before everyone else gets a handle on where the market is and fill at least one of your major holes, even if it's a slight overpay.

Sure Morton/Odorizzi/Paxton might have higher upside, but after talking with them it seemed they were willing to wait to sign later because they're looking for more than one year. Minor, Quintana, and Taijuan Walker are probably looking for multiple years too. That leaves you with Smyly, Archer, Happ, Richards, Wood, Wainright, and Lester and Wainright and Lester have already been talking to the Cards and Cubs about going back there. You could add Hamels to the guys that might take one year, but we're all likely to agree that Alex probably wasn't going there again. There's an argument to be made that Smyly was the best option from the group of one year options.

I wouldn't be surprised to see backup C, backup SS, and whether or not another pen arm will be added all cleared up before the non-tender deadline (two weeks). It'll be pretty clear at that point how much money AA has to spend - if Duvall is let go, there's enough available to make a play for Ozuna/Springer/Brantley or a trade for Bryant. If not, maybe we see a two year deal for Pederson - he and Duvall could platoon in LF next year and at DH in 2022 when Waters comes up. If Duvall is non-tendered (and those other holes have been filled), finances aren't going to be an issue when it comes to one of the big bats - AA wouldn't have spent that much on a SP and extra pen arm if a couple million was going to stand in the way of a Bryant trade or Ozuna return.

[Super]

My main concern is the small sample size on Smyly from 2020. I really don't see how a substantive analysis can be based on 26 innings.

quite simply, it can't.
i think AA is thinking what others here have said: IF Smyly can be a 3-4 win guy, you just got a huge bargain. the upside is there. it's a substantial gamble, but only for one year.

[bravesfanforlife88]

Timing is an interesting thing during the off-season. We've seen AA move early (Will Smith and now Smyly) and move late (JD, Ozuna, Keuchel). As a rule, it appears that the better bargains in free agency come late. But I can see the case for moving on a player before the market gets set. With Smith, I believe the window was driven by the possibility he could accept the QO from the Giants.

JD signed November 26th, so not that late actually....point is, when AA sees value, he jumps all over it, not matter what part of the offseason. My guess is that after seeing all the issues we had with the rotation, he prioritized that this offseason. Had we had Smyly in the NLCS last season, could we have won that series? We will never no, but it's possible.