Grading Smyly's 2020 stuff

[Enscheff]

Smyly's stuff supposedly took a big step forward in 2020, and the improvement has mostly been attributed to health. Here's what he threw.

FA: 93.9 mph (Grade 60), 3.3" xMov (Grade 40), 9.6" zMov (Grade 60)

This is a grade 60+ heater with plus velocity and plus rise. Increasing from 91 to almost 94 on the FA is huge, as this is the pitch everything else plays off. If the new velocity sticks around for 2021, even if they have to limit his workload to make that happen, his chances of being an impact arm are much better than if he's sitting at 91.

CU: 80.2 mph (Grade 55), 2.0" xMov (Grade 40), -3.2" zMov (Grade 45)

When I saw this I thought I was looking at bad data. A CU that breaks in the same arm-side direction as the FA? I almost stopped writing this post, until I read this article from FG: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/drew-smyly-cashes-in/

"His over-the-top throwing motion combined with some unique spin makes it appear to fade away from right-handed batters — almost like a screwball."

His CU doesn't appear to fade away arm-side, it literally does fade away arm-side, exactly like a screwball we almost never see in MLB. Since we have no data on screw balls, this pitch can't really be graded by this method. This pitch acts more like a CH in his overall arsenal as the off speed pitch that breaks away from RHH.

FC: 89.5 mph (Grade 55/60), -0.4" xMov (Grade 40), 5.0" zMov (Grade 40/45)

This cutter is very clearly his 3rd best pitch, and serves as his breaking ball away from LHH. His over the top motion makes it hard to get good lateral movement on pitches, so this pitch is what it is at this point: an average-ish MLB pitch that serves it's purpose.

Command: 2.85 career BB/9, 3.08 in 2020

Aside from his poor 2019 when coming back from TJS, Smyly has consistently shown average to plus control using BB/9 as a proxy. He largely got back to that in 2020 after "shaking off the rust" (I hate baseball cliches, even when accurate), so it stands to reason he should have similarly average or better command moving forward.

Overall:

AA just added a SP with 2 plus pitches (we can't grade the CU, but the results tell us it is plus), and a very useable 3rd pitch with average or better control. That's the definition of a #3 SP with upside to look better if the command is plus or better. The issue with Smyly will obviously be health, and whether or not that velocity uptick is sustainable. That extra 2-3 mph is the difference between him being a legit impact #3 or backend filler.

[UNCBlue012]

Good info, Ensheff. I think most people are worried based on the $18M dump for Hamels in 2020 and the supposed lack of funds going into the offseason but Smyly has a clear upside and is a good high-risk, high-reward play IMO. Fried-Soroka-Smyly-Anderson-Wright/Wilson in whatever order is fairly strong.

[Southcack77]

Good info, Ensheff. I think most people are worried based on the $18M dump for Hamels in 2020 and the supposed lack of funds going into the offseason but Smyly has a clear upside and is a good high-risk, high-reward play IMO. Fried-Soroka-Smyly-Anderson-Wright/Wilson in whatever order is fairly strong.

My only concern with the signing is the expected reduction in payroll. If they're operating business as usual then it is absolutely fine.

If this means they'll be rolling with Pache, Riley, maybe one modest bat, then I think they've gotten worse.

But, maybe they'll have the flexibility to improve during the season.

[Super]

My only concern with the signing is the expected reduction in payroll. If they're operating business as usual then it is absolutely fine.

If this means they'll be rolling with Pache, Riley, maybe one modest bat, then I think they've gotten worse.

But, maybe they'll have the flexibility to improve during the season.

well, yeah. if AA doesn't add a bat, this will look like a mistake (unless all of the bats get multi-year, high $ deals).
i have to believe he has a plan.

[OcalaBrave]

If you knew Soroka was back to start the season you could go retread and hope for the best. Soroka's rehab makes it necessary to start the season with someone you can pair with Fried and Anderson. Retreads won't do for that spot. If Smyley gives us only 100 innings, but gets us to a healthy productive Soroka he was well worth the money. We couldn't go into the season with essential 1.5 proven starters.

[Russ2dollas]

If you knew Soroka was back to start the season you could go retread and hope for the best. Soroka's rehab makes it necessary to start the season with someone you can pair with Fried and Anderson. Retreads won't do for that spot. If Smyley gives us only 100 innings, but gets us to a healthy productive Soroka he was well worth the money. We couldn't go into the season with essential 1.5 proven starters.

I think we still get a retread.

They love to get the 1 million dollar retread starter on a minor league deal. Felix from last year. I'd almost guarantee they'll do that again this year to at least make Wright/Wilson/etc win a job.

[Tapate50]

We will be all Smyleys when this guy pitches.

[nsacpi]

We will be all Smyleys when this guy pitches.

We will all be Smyly's People

[50PoundHead]

We will all be Smyly's People

Alec Guinness or Gary Oldman version?

[clvclv]

My only concern with the signing is the expected reduction in payroll. If they're operating business as usual then it is absolutely fine.

If this means they'll be rolling with Pache, Riley, maybe one modest bat, then I think they've gotten worse.

But, maybe they'll have the flexibility to improve during the season.

So much of this depends on what we have no way to know, it's pretty unfair to assume.

Smyly in the rotation - even if he only bridges you to a full-strength Soroka - is a substantial upgrade. So much so that using a six man rotation for the bulk of the season is likely a legitimate consideration. People are seriously underrating what the reduction of 2020 innings is going to mean for SPs - particularly young ones like the Braves' group. Soroka's career-high IP is 174.2. Fried's is 165.2. Wilson's is 137 (and that was in 2017). Wright's is 112.1. Anderson's is 111. Even if all those came LAST season and you pushed each guy 20 innings beyond his previous high usage you couldn't cover the entire regular season - and everybody would be gassed by the time the playoffs rolled around. 194 from Soroka (not happening), 185 from Fried (also not happening), 157 from Wilson, 132 from Wright, and 131 from Anderson would have left you 11 innings short of 5 IP/start for a 162 game season (810 IP).

Even without a breakout from Pache (if only in a platoon), he's a pretty substantial upgrade from Ender and there were enough signs of improvement from Riley to at least expect him to be "OK" as long as he doesn't have to hit higher than 7th.

What's still maddening for me is the lack of information we've heard about what went on in Gwinnett all summer - EVEN NOW. You'd at least expect DOB or Bowman would have bothered to take a little time to at least ask someone who was impressive or disappointing, but it's apparently more important to keep that quiet than it is to let Trump have nuclear launch codes. For all we know, Waters' adjustments blew their minds and AA has every intention of signing Ozuna to DH and playing Waters in left. BA mentions that Langeliers was a "standout performer at the Braves' alternate site" - other than that (whatever that means) and the fact that Muller touched 100 there this summer? Crickets.

[nsacpi]

Oldman

[NYCBrave]

So much of this depends on what we have no way to know, it's pretty unfair to assume.

Smyly in the rotation - even if he only bridges you to a full-strength Soroka - is a substantial upgrade. So much so that using a six man rotation for the bulk of the season is likely a legitimate consideration. People are seriously underrating what the reduction of 2020 innings is going to mean for SPs - particularly young ones like the Braves' group. Soroka's career-high IP is 174.2. Fried's is 165.2. Wilson's is 137 (and that was in 2017). Wright's is 112.1. Anderson's is 111. Even if all those came LAST season and you pushed each guy 20 innings beyond his previous high usage you couldn't cover the entire regular season - and everybody would be gassed by the time the playoffs rolled around. 194 from Soroka (not happening), 185 from Fried (also not happening), 157 from Wilson, 132 from Wright, and 131 from Anderson would have left you 11 innings short of 5 IP/start for a 162 game season (810 IP).

Even without a breakout from Pache (if only in a platoon), he's a pretty substantial upgrade from Ender and there were enough signs of improvement from Riley to at least expect him to be "OK" as long as he doesn't have to hit higher than 7th.

What's still maddening for me is the lack of information we've heard about what went on in Gwinnett all summer - EVEN NOW. You'd at least expect DOB or Bowman would have bothered to take a little time to at least ask someone who was impressive or disappointing, but it's apparently more important to keep that quiet than it is to let Trump have nuclear launch codes. For all we know, Waters' adjustments blew their minds and AA has every intention of signing Ozuna to DH and playing Waters in left. BA mentions that Langeliers was a "standout performer at the Braves' alternate site" - other than that (whatever that means) and the fact that Muller touched 100 there this summer? Crickets.

100% agree on the lack of reporting on the alternate site. It's embarrassing really.

[nsacpi]

100% agree on the lack of reporting on the alternate site. It's embarrassing really.

You have to pay to get that coverage.