2021 BA Top 100

[Super]

Waters' in-game power has not been at all impressive especially considering his Ks and lack of walks.
he's young and apparently has tools tho.

[Tapate50]

I mean, that's a phrase scouts consistently use, so I'm sure there's something to it. I recall hearing similar scouting takes about Ozzie coming up.

I think the take from that is that he hits the ball hard with a lot of frequency, something his hard hit% should reflect, and therefore would support a higher BABIP. Do we have those sort of numbers for minor leaguers? I haven't the faintest idea of where to look for those.

I also read the bat control, and quick bat speed commentary. Some of these guys can fall victim to their own abilities because of this they don't learn the zone as well, and don't lay off pitches they can't do anything with. Still- I'd trust our scouts that saw him all year. It sounds like he needs a few rounds of bull semen injections so he can start taking these pitches deep.

Still that BABIP isn't in the realm of realistic.

[atl717]

Waters' in-game power has not been at all impressive especially considering his Ks and lack of walks.
he's young and apparently has tools tho.

He hits a lot of lines drives and balls on the ground. He is definitely going to have to lift the ball more.

[mfree80]

Do we have any idea what he did last year, or are we just extrapolating from previous years?

The Braves seem to be higher on him than you guys, so maybe they know something we don’t.

[Super]

Do we have any idea what he did last year, or are we just extrapolating from previous years?

The Braves seem to be higher on him than you guys, so maybe they know something we don’t.

there was no last year for minor league games.
we don't have much info from the alternate site, of course, and sure maybe he improved a ton. but we have no evidence of it.
i don't think we know how much the Braves value him tho.

[Southcack77]

there was no last year for minor league games.
we don't have much info from the alternate site, of course, and sure maybe he improved a ton. but we have no evidence of it.
i don't think we know how much the Braves value him tho.

Nope, we don't.

[Enscheff]

So now the Waters defense has turned to the always wrong “he’s so good he gets himself out” argument. That argument is used for toolsy guys who rarely pan out. This after the “he just needs to learn how to hit” defense.

You guys are literally describing every single failed toolsy OF prospect. Hopefully he improved a lot at the alternate site, even though he still wasn’t deemed as good as Pache who was nothing to brag about with the bat.

[clvclv]

So now the Waters defense has turned to the always wrong “he’s so good he gets himself out” argument. That argument is used for toolsy guys who rarely pan out. This after the “he just needs to learn how to hit” defense.

You guys are literally describing every single failed toolsy OF prospect. Hopefully he improved a lot at the alternate site, even though he still wasn’t deemed as good as Pache who was nothing to brag about with the bat.

Being fair...

You're admittedly the low guy on Waters around here, so you look at the downside as much as many look at his upside. I think the majority of folks being realistic are somewhere in the middle between you and them and would be quite thrilled if he turns into a 20-ish HR, 15-ish SB offensive piece that doesn't need a platoon partner and can hold down all 3 OF spots with no worries. Somebody like that that gives you an elite defensive OF, hits toward the bottom of the lineup, and is cheap for the duration of Acuna's contract would be a pretty nice piece - especially if/when the DH resurfaces.

Most of us certainly aren't expecting him to turn into an All-Star.

[Southcack77]

Being fair...

You're admittedly the low guy on Waters around here, so you look at the downside as much as many look at his upside. I think the majority of folks being realistic are somewhere in the middle between you and them and would be quite thrilled if he turns into a 20-ish HR, 15-ish SB offensive piece that doesn't need a platoon partner and can hold down all 3 OF spots with no worries. Somebody like that that gives you an elite defensive OF, hits toward the bottom of the lineup, and is cheap for the duration of Acuna's contract would be a pretty nice piece - especially if/when the DH resurfaces.

Most of us certainly aren't expecting him to turn into an All-Star.

The problem is you think that's realistic rather than near best case.

[clvclv]

The problem is you think that's realistic rather than near best case.

What part of "would be thrilled" did you misunderstand?

I have no clue what kind of player he will be, nor have I claimed to - I do know that he wouldn't be the first-ever player to have an oddly-high BABIP if he succeeds on some level. He also wouldn't be the first one to get better as he approached his mid-20s. What I do know is...

The organization appears to be higher on him than Enscheff (right or wrong), and apparently thinks he's not that far away from getting a shot - otherwise there would be more urgency to "figure out" LF. If they didn't feel pretty good about Waters, they could have gotten Pederson or Rosario pretty easily simply by offering a second year.

Maybe they feel like a Mazara and Duvall platoon in 2021 won't be any (or much) worse than a Pederson/Rosario and Duvall platoon would have been, who knows? All signs point to Waters being given his shot in 2022 at the latest since they've been aggressive with his promotions and apparently haven't had any interest in including him in trades.

[Enscheff]

Being fair...

You're admittedly the low guy on Waters around here, so you look at the downside as much as many look at his upside. I think the majority of folks being realistic are somewhere in the middle between you and them and would be quite thrilled if he turns into a 20-ish HR, 15-ish SB offensive piece that doesn't need a platoon partner and can hold down all 3 OF spots with no worries. Somebody like that that gives you an elite defensive OF, hits toward the bottom of the lineup, and is cheap for the duration of Acuna's contract would be a pretty nice piece - especially if/when the DH resurfaces.

Most of us certainly aren't expecting him to turn into an All-Star.

That’s a pretty damn good player you just described. A CF capable guy with that type of power is a stud. I’m not the low man on him because I dislike him...he didn’t steal my girlfriend. I’m the low man on him because he hasn’t shown anything to suggest he’s going to be an impact player.

Waters is a good prospect. That’s what FV 50 means. I’ve never argued against that. What I argue against is this idea around here that he’s some elite guy just because he’s the 3rd best guy in the depleted Braves system, or that he is a mortal lock to be a Top 100 guy on every single list that’s ever published.

The facts are he is a toolsy guy who posts mediocre production despite sky high BABIP because he can’t make enough contact. That screams 4th OFer who is non-tendered by the time he reaches arb 1 or 2. That is literally the story of all those guys.

There’s certainly time for that story to change, but as of right now there’s zero data available to suggest it has.

[clvclv]

That’s a pretty damn good player you just described. A CF capable guy with that type of power is a stud. I’m not the low man on him because I dislike him...he didn’t steal my girlfriend. I’m the low man on him because he hasn’t shown anything to suggest he’s going to be an impact player.

Waters is a good prospect. That’s what FV 50 means. I’ve never argued against that. What I argue against is this idea around here that he’s some elite guy just because he’s the 3rd best guy in the depleted Braves system, or that he is a mortal lock to be a Top 100 guy on every single list that’s ever published.

The facts are he is a toolsy guy who posts mediocre production despite sky high BABIP because he can’t make enough contact. That screams 4th OFer who is non-tendered by the time he reaches arb 1 or 2. That is literally the story of all those guys.

There’s certainly time for that story to change, but as of right now there’s zero data available to suggest it has.

Right. And that's perfectly reasonable. The point is that the posters you're saying are so wrong are reading reports from the major scouting sites (other than Law) that say he's going to be an impact player, and not too far down the road.

As far as we "know", he's not ready to be that guy in 2021 - there's so little info from last summer in Gwinnett that there's no possible way anyone that wasn't there could know if he's made strides. The point is that if that's what they saw behind closed doors last summer, he could have started to turn that corner. Your opinion would still be "right" because you're not privy to the information, but those who expect him to make improvements may well be right too - Riley did last year, even if he's still not "there" yet.

Jarren Duran is a perfect example of what makes the way the Braves handled the alternate site so frustrating. There was plenty of chatter from the Red Sox' site last summer - people were raving about the adjustments Duran had made, and he was lighting the Puerto Rican League up. All we know about Waters is that one short blurb a couple weeks ago said he had a good summer at the alternate site - no details whatsoever and they didn't send him anywhere to play winter ball.

[Carp]

The problem is you think that's realistic rather than near best case.

Realistically, there isn't much of a reason why he can't be another Drew Stubbs/Michael Taylor type of player. His defense is reportedly very good and he has a decent amount of pop. Those guys have value while they're cheap.

Best case scenario is something similar to Starling Marte.

[clvclv]

Realistically, there isn't much of a reason why he can't be another Drew Stubbs/Michael Taylor type of player. His defense is reportedly very good and he has a decent amount of pop. Those guys have value while they're cheap.

Best case scenario is something similar to Starling Marte.

IF (still a big if as far as we know) Waters turns into a Stubbs/Marte type of player, the Braves will have a Top 5 OF for the next 5-6 years.

If that happens AND Pache hits, look out.

[cajunrevenge]

You could say the same for most teams that are not top 6-7 farm systems right now. Losing development in 2020 is going to affect that. The Braves still have lots of talent that could/should see improvement this year and take the place of those exhausting their eligibility. I imagine at this time in 2022, we'll have at least new 2-3 more names on top 100 lists. Muller, Langeliers, Shoemake, and Contreras are all somewhat likely candidates to be featured on Top 100 lists by mid-season. And this makes no mention of possibly our highest upside hitters in Harris and Ball who definitely would have moved on to one of these lists had they continued their trends from 2019. Schuster also has a chance to make a top 100 list if his rookie campaign goes well.

I dont think there are many teams whose top 3 prospects all have MLB experience and/or a full season at AAA. The point I am making is that these next group of prospects are not going to elevate themselves anywhere close to these 3 prospects. The international signing ban has had an effect. I have no complaints about our international scouting strategy but our drafts have been **** for a while now. That you mention Harris and Ball as possibly our highest upside hitters makes me a sad panda. I dont want to be negative about these players . I am rooting for them. I just dont see this ending well. This time next year we might have one top 50 prospect and its going to keep getting worse unless we stop drafting these ****ty college players early in the draft.

[cajunrevenge]

Not really. The team's draft approach has been strategic and will change as their needs change. Had they not lost out on international resources, they'd be fine. That's the killer.

We have a top 10 prospect in Anderson drafted out of HS from the 2016 draft. We have a top 32 prospect in Waters drafted out of HS from the 2017 draft. Where we all these great college prospects or MLB players in these college heavy recent drafts? Kyle Wright sucks donkey dick and we are keeping him till we have to release him rather than trading him when there were still saps who thought he was great. Best prospect we have other than the big 3 is Muller, another HS draftee. This all feels like the Cody Johnson **** all over again.

[Carp]

There have been 3 drafts since AA took over, with the 2018 class 1st rounder not signing. The 2019 players drafted have like 3 months were of stats to pull from. Since 2020 was lost, there really hasn't been enough time to establish anyone as a top prospect from any of these classes. I'd say Shoemake and Langeliers are both likely to be top 100 prospects in 2021. Shoot, they both might reach the majors this year.

[Southcack77]

What part of "would be thrilled" did you misunderstand?

I have no clue what kind of player he will be, nor have I claimed to - I do know that he wouldn't be the first-ever player to have an oddly-high BABIP if he succeeds on some level. He also wouldn't be the first one to get better as he approached his mid-20s. What I do know is...

The organization appears to be higher on him than Enscheff (right or wrong), and apparently thinks he's not that far away from getting a shot - otherwise there would be more urgency to "figure out" LF. If they didn't feel pretty good about Waters, they could have gotten Pederson or Rosario pretty easily simply by offering a second year.

Maybe they feel like a Mazara and Duvall platoon in 2021 won't be any (or much) worse than a Pederson/Rosario and Duvall platoon would have been, who knows? All signs point to Waters being given his shot in 2022 at the latest since they've been aggressive with his promotions and apparently haven't had any interest in including him in trades.

I don't think there are any signs pointing any direction about Waters being given a shot in 2022.

his MILB performance is unsustainable full stop. He can't maintain anything like the BABIP in MLB. Even if he were a major outlier at the MLB level, which is fairly unlikely, his numbers are going to suffer quite a bit.

He has to get a lot better to be any kind of impact player. To do that, he's probably going to have to fail.

[OcalaBrave]

"He spent much of his time at alternate camp working on his overall approach, one that has produced a career 26.2 percent strikeout rate and just a seven percent walk rate, and the Braves feel his time facing so many advanced arms last summer will benefit him and allow him to be a more advanced hitter and to tap into his raw power more consistently."

That's from his prospect write-up on mlb.com.

I understand the argument that his numbers are not sustainable, but it is not as if he has been dominating inferior pitching. In the last two years of game action, he has been from 2.4 to 6.9 years younger than the average competition. His speed gives significant doubles power.

If the above from MLB is true, it suggests to me his approach did fail at the alternate site last season and he worked hard, against better pitching than he had previously seen, to improve his approach. Until we see him play, only those that were watching the alternate site know if Waters will be given a shot in 2022. The fact that AA seems to be against including him in a trade tells me AA sees a path for him to play in 2022.

Will he be a switch hitting, doubles machine playing GG caliber defense in LF? Who knows, but I'm a little more concerned about the splits from the right side than the approach of a kid that has produced at every level regardless of age difference.

[Southcack77]

"He spent much of his time at alternate camp working on his overall approach, one that has produced a career 26.2 percent strikeout rate and just a seven percent walk rate, and the Braves feel his time facing so many advanced arms last summer will benefit him and allow him to be a more advanced hitter and to tap into his raw power more consistently."

That's from his prospect write-up on mlb.com.

I understand the argument that his numbers are not sustainable, but it is not as if he has been dominating inferior pitching. In the last two years of game action, he has been from 2.4 to 6.9 years younger than the average competition. His speed gives significant doubles power.

If the above from MLB is true, it suggests to me his approach did fail at the alternate site last season and he worked hard, against better pitching than he had previously seen, to improve his approach. Until we see him play, only those that were watching the alternate site know if Waters will be given a shot in 2022. The fact that AA seems to be against including him in a trade tells me AA sees a path for him to play in 2022.

Will he be a switch hitting, doubles machine playing GG caliber defense in LF? Who knows, but I'm a little more concerned about the splits from the right side than the approach of a kid that has produced at every level regardless of age difference.

All I know is that AA has not made any major trades. I've never really had much indication that was because he was particularly unwilling to move Waters, but I guess that could be true.