2021 BA Top 100

[GovClintonTyree]

I had no idea who Evan White was.

Then I saw the Ms gave him an extension before reaching the majors because he plays 1b and produced an .840 OPS at AA.

Is it any wonder why that organization is so terrible?

They offered the same deal to Kelenic and J Rodriguez, who turned them down (they're 4-5 on KLaw's list). Oddly, the better the prospect, the less likely they are to grab the relatively minimal security of a pre-MLB deal.

SD gave Taytis 14 years, and when all is said and done, they may be very happy they did. But damn, that's a lot of risk, and a lot of cheddar. So much time. So much can happen.

[Carp]

I had no idea who Evan White was.

Then I saw the Ms gave him an extension before reaching the majors because he plays 1b and produced an .840 OPS at AA.

Is it any wonder why that organization is so terrible?

It's only 24 million guaranteed to not super risky, but it was definitely unnecessary. He's a 1b set to become a FA by age 30. If he busts, guaranteeing 7 and 8 million to him in 4-5 years could definitely be a move that sets them back in a tough division. It's not like he was some uber talented prospect at a premium position. He literally has to become an all-star caliber player for that deal to have great value.

[Carp]

I don't want to extend Pache, but the idea has it's merits. But unless he just morphs into Acuna 2.0 (but with elite CF defense) then I don't think you're gonna save much money overall. Let him have a season or two to settle in, then approach him about buying out his control years and a couple FA seasons

[clvclv]

I don't want to extend Pache, but the idea has it's merits. But unless he just morphs into Acuna 2.0 (but with elite CF defense) then I don't think you're gonna save much money overall. Let him have a season or two to settle in, then approach him about buying out his control years and a couple FA seasons

Definitely don't think it would save a ton of money - unless the bat comes, of course - but given the role he'd be being asked to play having the certainty would be helpful when it comes to budgets, especially since they're trying to piece a Freeman extension together. Would hate to have him have his career year with the bat the year before he goes to arbitration only to regress significantly. The Mariners giving that kind of deal to someone at a bat-first position was a little nuts given he hadn't shown anything more in the minors. The difference as you mention is that Pache actually is that uber talented guy defensively at a premium position, and no one expects his defense to take a step back during the first 6 years at his age.

Would probably work out a lot like the Inciarte/Teheran deals if he doesn't hit - likely a little overpaid in the last year or so - but the financial certainty would be nice. If they believe in his bat and it works out it becomes one of those Top 10 value deals.

[GovClintonTyree]

Does it occur to you guys that there may never be another deal as team friendly as the Acuna and (especially) the Albies deals? It's hard to fathom getting one of those deals done, let alone both.

[clvclv]

Does it occur to you guys that there may never be another deal as team friendly as the Acuna and (especially) the Albies deals? It's hard to fathom getting one of those deals done, let alone both.

Does it occur to you that no one has ever mentioned Pache in the same breath as Albies or Acuna? The Albies and Acuna deals are the perfect examples of why Pache shouldn't accept the type of deal we're discussing. The "flip side" is that there are a *elluva lot more players that don't scare their ceilings - and "earn" their money - than there are that wind up as underpaid as Acuna and Albies hopefully wind up being. A night out with a bunch of buddies their age at the Gold Club and a trip home when they shouldn't have driven turns the Albies and Acuna deals into two of the worst investments the team has made in no time - a Tiger Woods style car crash doesn't get the organization out from under the money it agreed to pay them.

It's all about your personal comfort when it comes to risk levels - it's perfectly reasonable to expect someone from the Dominican Republic to feel like you hadn't 'taken advantage of them" when you gave them $24 million whether they were able to perform or not when they weren't sure they'd ever see $240K in their entire lifetime.

Considering Pache's skillset and what the organization needs, he doesn't have to sniff being the kind of success Albies or Acuna have (so far) for a White-type deal to be a great deal for both the organization AND the player - when you get to the point when both sides stand to "win" as much as they stand to "lose", the deal's pretty fair. If Pache never hits but is an elite defender at a premium defensive position, that money was probably well-spent - if he develops into a hitter like Acuna, he cost himself money. There are just as many "experts" (if not more) that don't think he's ever going to hit than there are that believe in him - if they're right, getting paid $24 million to play defense and hit 9th is pretty good if you're Pache.

[Southcack77]

Hindsight is 20/20, but perhaps we now understand a little better the risk with defense-first players as they get into their late 20s.

Something to keep in mind when the "sign Pache to an extension" narrative starts being thrown around in the next couple years. Same deal with any Swanson extension talks. Defense has been shown to age pretty poorly, so if the bat isn't carrying a player's value, extensions should be cautiously handed out.

Generally there isn't really much reason to extend a modestly talented player who is at their peak into their 30s.

Odds are you can replace that player for the same money or less than you are guaranteeing to the incumbent.

The Braves wanted to show they were committed to rebuilding quickly, or something, so they threw the Inciarte and Teheran extensions at the news cycle. And people lapped it up.

[Southcack77]

I would think a Pache "extension" - assuming he'd sign one - similar to the ones Seattle was offering around to everyone in their system (and White accepted) might not be too bad an idea.

White will make $1 million this year, and his deal carries a $4 million AAV through his arbitration seasons (maxing out at $8 million in his last year of team control) with team options for his first two free-agent seasons at $11 and $12 million. While that would mean you'd be paying Pache the same kind of money at the end that Ender will pull this year, you wouldn't be responsible for paying him beyond his 20s even if he was playing well enough to make you want to pick up both options.

If Pache's bat DOES develop and you've got him signed for those types of terms you're looking at another Ozzie deal.

I don't see any need in the world to extend Pache any time soon.

Wait and see if he pops then give him the Albies offer. If he's a no hit CF for 8m that's not devastating I guess.

But you probably need to see proof of concept before you get Kingery-Ed. (I have no idea if Scott will turn it around but probably not great that the front office doesn't know either and owes him money).

[Southcack77]

Pache doesn't have to hit (at all) to make $4 million per for Gold Glove defense in CF a *ell of a deal. If Ender were still playing Gold Glove defense AND making $4 million no one would be looking to unload him. If the Braves' chances hinge on Pache becoming an offensive force, they're in trouble - serious production from him is icing on the cake, not a requirement.

Gold Glove defense at a bat-first position isn't worth quite as much. Comparing Pache and White is comical.

If Pache can't hit at all then Gold Glove defense doesn't save him.

He's got to approach average at the plate to make starting him worth it (imo, for most modest rostered Braves teams trying to win the WS)

[cajunrevenge]

Early extensions are always the way to go imo. Some might turn out bad like Ender but its much easier to swallow an 8 million mistake than a 20+ million mistake in free agency.

[GovClintonTyree]

Does it occur to you that no one has ever mentioned Pache in the same breath as Albies or Acuna? The Albies and Acuna deals are the perfect examples of why Pache shouldn't accept the type of deal we're discussing. The "flip side" is that there are a *elluva lot more players that don't scare their ceilings - and "earn" their money - than there are that wind up as underpaid as Acuna and Albies hopefully wind up being. A night out with a bunch of buddies their age at the Gold Club and a trip home when they shouldn't have driven turns the Albies and Acuna deals into two of the worst investments the team has made in no time - a Tiger Woods style car crash doesn't get the organization out from under the money it agreed to pay them.

It's all about your personal comfort when it comes to risk levels - it's perfectly reasonable to expect someone from the Dominican Republic to feel like you hadn't 'taken advantage of them" when you gave them $24 million whether they were able to perform or not when they weren't sure they'd ever see $240K in their entire lifetime.

Considering Pache's skillset and what the organization needs, he doesn't have to sniff being the kind of success Albies or Acuna have (so far) for a White-type deal to be a great deal for both the organization AND the player - when you get to the point when both sides stand to "win" as much as they stand to "lose", the deal's pretty fair. If Pache never hits but is an elite defender at a premium defensive position, that money was probably well-spent - if he develops into a hitter like Acuna, he cost himself money. There are just as many "experts" (if not more) that don't think he's ever going to hit than there are that believe in him - if they're right, getting paid $24 million to play defense and hit 9th is pretty good if you're Pache.

What the **** are you going on about, dude? My comment had nothing to do with you. Have a great day.

[Tapate50]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/picks-to...-2022-top-100/

Two Braves guys they folks at FG expect to make next years top 100...Shea and Bryce Ball. They had really nice things to say about Ball and his feel to hit.

[cajunrevenge]

More than 2/3rds of the names they mentioned wont make the list based on their previous guesses. Bryce Ball's stock imo is increased a lot by the NL having the DH. As a 1B prospect he is nothing special as I see him as a mid .800 OPS hitter if he continues to develop well. I doubt Shea makes the list unless they REALLY value some defense at the C position.