2024 Field

[Jaw]

Dark and dreary nights are a great time to look forward to the dawn. Who do we think runs?

Pence and Haley are traditional conservatives with some Trump admin experience. It's more likely to taint Pence than Haley if that's a thing at that point.

Rubio and Cruz seem like the perpetual Bob Dole - John McCain candidates who run a lot and get trounced if they're actually nominated.

Hawley and Cotton are Trumpism without being Trump, although they'll certainly be branded as evil incarnate by the time the election race gears up.

Will Kasich or someone similar represent the limp wristed wing of the party?

Noem and DeSantis seem likely. Will any other governors jump in? Abbott? Former governor Rick Scott?

[nsacpi]

Romney all the way.

There are also some talented Republikaner © governors in New England. Charlie Baker for one.

Maybe Liz Cheney.

[Jaw]

I know almost nothing about Baker, I'll have to look him up. But that doesn't bode well for him from a name recognition standpoint.

[nsacpi]

I know almost nothing about Baker, I'll have to look him up. But that doesn't bode well for him from a name recognition standpoint.

As a former Republicaner © I'm familiar with a long line of really outstanding governors that have served in various northeastern states. Tom Kean was governor of NJ during the time I lived there. Bill Weld in Massachusetts. Thornburgh in PA. Romney in Massachusetts. These guys did a lot for their states. Their heirs continue the tradition today: Baker, Hogan, Sununu, Phil Scott in Vermont.

Those are predominantly Democratic states, but the voters there have recognized good talent and have instinctively understood the need to check Democratic excesses from time to time. It wouldn't be such a bad thing for the party to turn to this stream of talent. They have the virtue of actually having a positive (though not as expansive as the Dems) conception of what it is to be the governing party.

[Jaw]

I'm familiar with Jean, Weld, and obviously Romney. I was an enthusiastic Romney supporter, thinking he was the most electable Pub since Reagan.

The hit job on him and then the Obama landslide victory convinced me the Pubs would have to drastically change course if they wanted to win. Playing nice while being a better candidate with better policies and a sense of morality simply wasn't enough to overcome the advantages the Dems had via pop culture, news media, academia, and identity politics. Trump proved that out.

[Krgrecw]

https://www.bovada.lv/sports/politic...-election-2024


Bovada has Haley third behind Trump and pence

Romney has worse odds than Candace Owens.



I still think gabbard would be a solid choice if she became an R. Her knockout of Kamala Harris was impressive



Telling that Pence has better odds to be the GOP nominee but Haley has better odds than pence to be the president

[Carp]

Josh Hawley and his support of the "stolen election" will likely be considered partially to blame for the Capitol seize by many Americans and certainly by the media and his political opponents. He is part of the toxic stench that Trump left behind in the Republican party. Because of that, I don't think he can be seen as a serious candidate. I truly really believe that this era of Trump politics is not something most Republicans (that are likely to vote) are eager to get behind again. So I don't see Ivanka or Jr. being serious candidates either.

Nikki Haley on the other hand was critical enough of Trump in his tenure to not be attached to Trump's toxicity. But she had enough support from Trump that his followers would likely back her as well. I imagine she will be the 2024 favorite at his point.

I still really like Paul Ryan and wish he would get back into politics. He is a voice of reason in the Republican party and is very likeable. Romney could climb back in, but I doubt it. Trump supporters see him as a traitor and I don't know that regular Republicans are eager to vote for a former failed Presidential candidate. Obviously, it would be nice if Justin Amash would rejoin the Republican party because I do believe he would be someone that Republicans could rally around and he would likewise draw a lot of independents.



For the Dems, I don't imagine Biden can or would want to continue doing this into the mid 80's. That leaves Kamala as the likely candidate, though Tulsi Gabbard is gaining a lot of popularity and was very strong during the debates. Buttigieg still seems like a very underwhelming option. HRC is still widely disliked. I suppose Bernie might run again if he's still around. Warren isn't moving the needle either. I really hope Tulsi is the Dem candidate.

A dream scenario would be Tulsi vs Amash. Then I honestly would be happy with either candidate winning, though I would vote Amash.

[nsacpi]

Trump proved that out.

fool's gold

[nsacpi]

Romney has worse odds than Candace Owens.

I don't expect him to run. I mentioned him because he is my choice. But I'm no longer a Republikaner © so there is a double hypothetical there. He won't be running. And I won't be voting in the party's primary.

[Krgrecw]

Josh Hawley and his support of the "stolen election" will considered partially to blame for the Capitol seize by many Americans. He is part of the toxic stench the Trump left behind in the Republican party. I don't think he can seen as a serious candidate. I truly really believe that this era of Trump politics is not something most Republicans that are likely to vote are eager to get behind again. So I don't see Ivanka or Jr. being serious candidates either.

Nikki Haley on the other hand was critical enough of Trump in his tenure to not be attached to Trump's toxicity. But she had enough support from Trump that his followers would likely back her as well. I imagine she will be the 2024 favorite at his point. I still really like Paul Ryan and wish he would get back into politics. He is a voice of reason in the Republican party and is very likeable. Romney could climb back in, but I doubt it. Trump supporters see him as a traitor and I don't know that regular Republicans are eager to vote for a former failed Presidential candidate.

Obviously, it would be nice if Justin Amash would rejoin the Republican party because I do believe he would be someone that Republicans could rally around and he would likewise draw a lot of independents.

For the Dems, I don't imagine Biden can or would want to continue doing this into the mid 80's. That leaves Kamala as the likely candidate, though Tulsi Gabbard is gaining a lot of popularity and was very strong during the debates. Buttigieg still seems like a very underwhelming option. HRC is still widely disliked. I suppose Bernie might run again if he's still around. Warren isn't moving the needle either. I really hope Tulsi is the Dem candidate.

A dream scenario would be Tulsi vs Amash. Then I honestly would be happy with candidate winning, though I would vote Amash.

You really think the media and democrats are going to do everything to enable Kamala to get the nomination? They don’t want to lose that minority vote.

[mqt]

I'm familiar with Jean, Weld, and obviously Romney. I was an enthusiastic Romney supporter, thinking he was the most electable Pub since Reagan.

The hit job on him and then the Obama landslide victory convinced me the Pubs would have to drastically change course if they wanted to win. Playing nice while being a better candidate with better policies and a sense of morality simply wasn't enough to overcome the advantages the Dems had via pop culture, news media, academia, and identity politics. Trump proved that out.

That’s an impressive leap. Part of the issue with both parties is an inability to hold themselves accountable for being unpopular. You do not better policies or a better candidate when you lose the election by 5 million votes and 126 Electoral Votes, just as you don’t have better candidates or policies when you lose the House, Senate and White House as both parties have done in the last 4 years.

There’s a lot of data on both sides of the aisle that will tell either side they’re more right about how to run the Economy. There’s also a massive gap between the experiences of those in rural and urban areas, and between the rich and the poor. This leads to different sets of cultural values that obviously clash at times. The folly to me is in declaring that one side is right, and that it’s the fault of the people or the media for just not seeing it. If Republicans want to win in NY or CA, they need to find a way to resonate with the voters in those states, just as Democrats need to do so in FL or TX. Trump hasn’t proven that the Republicans have to choose his path, because that path just failed spectacularly in November.

[Carp]

Tulsi is also a minority.

[Jaw]

https://www.bovada.lv/sports/politic...-election-2024


Bovada has Haley third behind Trump and pence

Romney has worse odds than Candace Owens.



I still think gabbard would be a solid choice if she became an R. Her knockout of Kamala Harris was impressive



Telling that Pence has better odds to be the GOP nominee but Haley has better odds than pence to be the president

Gabbard is a social progressive. She's willing to buck the progressive line, but she's still a long way from being right of center.

[Jaw]

That’s an impressive leap. Part of the issue with both parties is an inability to hold themselves accountable for being unpopular. You do not better policies or a better candidate when you lose the election by 5 million votes and 126 Electoral Votes, just as you don’t have better candidates or policies when you lose the House, Senate and White House as both parties have done in the last 4 years.

There’s a lot of data on both sides of the aisle that will tell either side they’re more right about how to run the Economy. There’s also a massive gap between the experiences of those in rural and urban areas, and between the rich and the poor. This leads to different sets of cultural values that obviously clash at times. The folly to me is in declaring that one side is right, and that it’s the fault of the people or the media for just not seeing it. If Republicans want to win in NY or CA, they need to find a way to resonate with the voters in those states, just as Democrats need to do so in FL or TX. Trump hasn’t proven that the Republicans have to choose his path, because that path just failed spectacularly in November.

That part was partly tongue in cheek. I do think he was the most electable Pub since Reagan, and I do think he was the target of an absurd media hit. And that the media hit job on him had plenty to do with the rise of Trump.

[mqt]

For the Dems, I don't imagine Biden can or would want to continue doing this into the mid 80's. That leaves Kamala as the likely candidate, though Tulsi Gabbard is gaining a lot of popularity and was very strong during the debates. Buttigieg still seems like a very underwhelming option. HRC is still widely disliked. I suppose Bernie might run again if he's still around. Warren isn't moving the needle either. I really hope Tulsi is the Dem candidate.

A dream scenario would be Tulsi vs Amash. Then I honestly would be happy with either candidate winning, though I would vote Amash.

I don’t think Tulsi is really gaining popularity with the people that would be voting in the Democratic Primary, though.

[nsacpi]

Trump hasn’t proven that the Republicans have to choose his path, because that path just failed spectacularly in November.

There is a kind of worst case scenario staring at the Republikaners © in the face. It is conceivable they could lose the turnout bump from the trumpy voters with very poorly chosen one not on the ballot AND continue to hemorrhage votes from highly educated suburban voters.

Best case scenario is they hold on to both.

Most likely scenarios involve choosing once or the other.

But worst case is out there as a distinct possibility. Think Georgia senate elections on a national scale.

[Jaw]

You really think the media and democrats are going to do everything to enable Kamala to get the nomination? They don’t want to lose that minority vote.

We'll see an unprecedented media campaign for Kamala in 24. It will make Obama's lapdog media look unbiased. The combination of taking their mask off over the past few years and having a female minority (Dem, of course) will lead to propaganda that makes Pravda blush.

[Carp]

Also, the economy could be a primary factor into the 2024 election. As great of a candidate as Obama was, the POTUS he was replacing was a Republican that just lead us into the worst recession in over 70 years and had us involved in 2 wars. So republicans were behind the 8 ball in 2008 even before the debates began. That was also a primary reason why Bush Sr. lost to Clinton.

If this pandemic and recent overspending leads us into another recession, Dems will find it hard to retain the white house in 2024.

[Tapate50]

Gabbard is a social progressive. She's willing to buck the progressive line, but she's still a long way from being right of center.

Shes being pushed to the right by the lefts treatment.

Her JRE episode last week was pretty eye opening about how little politicians in DC ACTUALLY care about regular people.

[striker42]

As a former Republicaner © I'm familiar with a long line of really outstanding governors that have served in various northeastern states. Tom Kean was governor of NJ during the time I lived there. Bill Weld in Massachusetts. Thornburgh in PA. Romney in Massachusetts. These guys did a lot for their states. Their heirs continue the tradition today: Baker, Hogan, Sununu, Phil Scott in Vermont.

Those are predominantly Democratic states, but the voters there have recognized good talent and have instinctively understood the need to check Democratic excesses from time to time. It wouldn't be such a bad thing for the party to turn to this stream of talent. They have the virtue of actually having a positive (though not as expansive as the Dems) conception of what it is to be the governing party.

I would love to see a Romney presidency. I strongly support getting a moderate into office to try to bring things back from the extremes. But having lost once I don't see Romney as having a prayer of getting the nomination. Especially with him being the enemy of those supporting Trump.

Haley could be a strong candidate in the general election. It would make it difficult for the Democrat (I'm not saying Biden as who knows if he'll run again) to play the race or sex cards.

There's a lot that will play out over the next couple years before we have any idea how the field will play out. If Trump goes to jail or if his organization gets dismantled, it could change the field entirely. If he beats any investigations and consolidates, things look entirely different.